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211. Post-Election Iran and Syria: Continuity or Change?

Author:
Hamidreza Azizi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On June 18, conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s presidential election to succeed moderate President Hassan Rouhani. For many, his victory came amid public dissatisfaction with the dire economic and political situation, along with widespread disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates, which significantly reduced voter turnout. Traditionally, lower turnout in Iranian elections means the victory of conservative or so-called ‘hardline’ figures and so Raisi’s victory was in many ways following a theme. However, even though the election and its outcome indicate a significant shift in Iran’s domestic politics toward more authoritarianism, its impacts on foreign policy, including Iran’s strategy in Syria, will be less tangible. Over the past several years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has almost completely dominated Iran’s regional policy. At the same time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei openly seeks to limit the role of the president in foreign policy. Consequently, this means that Iran’s policy in Syria in the post-election period will be more about continuity than about change.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

212. China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom

Author:
Roger Garside and Andrew Nathan
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This short book predicts—contrary to the prevailing consensus—that China’s leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup d’état mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end China’s one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat, development banker, and author Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and then—in the main body of the book—to explain why. His gripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature. Garside argued that under Xi’s overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xi’s rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that China’s actions have provoked from the world’s strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, Xi’s rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save China—and themselves—from catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act. Garside’s scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xi’s rivals move against him.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Leadership, and Coup
Political Geography:
China and Asia

213. Reimagining a Canadian National Security Strategy

Author:
Aaron Shull and Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This CIGI special report is a "cri de cœur" arguing for a new approach to national security strategy and honest, transparent engagement with the reality of the threats we face as a country. It outlines the key threats that we now confront: a vastly altered geopolitical environment with the rising power of China at its core, ongoing and future pandemic threats, climate change security impacts, uncontrolled technological change and the undermining of economic security. Meeting these threats requires a sovereign, made-in-Canada response that protects Canada’s democracy and national interest and that operates within an environment of informed public understanding. Canada must pivot to face looming global threats and can and must do so from a position of knowledge and strength. This special report is the culmination of a project unprecedented in scale and scope in Canada. Beginning in the fall of 2020, CIGI set out to mobilize a large and diverse set of Canadian and international experts to examine Canada’s national security landscape. The CIGI project, Reimagining a Canadian National Security Strategy, features the publication of this capstone report, authored by the project’s co-directors, alongside 10 thematic reports allowing for deeper dives into critical, present-day national security issues. This report makes a series of key policy recommendations to assist the Government of Canada in addressing the challenges of a new security environment.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

214. he Canadian Election Template: Stronger Elections at Home, Stronger Canada Abroad

Author:
Brian Klaas and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
For the last four years, the world’s most powerful champion of democratization has been largely absent from the global stage. The United States is now poised to support a far more pro-democracy agenda, with greater insistence on free and fair elections as part of American foreign policy. Indeed, US President Joe Biden has redoubled efforts by hosting a global summit for democracy, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has committed to partnering with the United States on supporting global democracy. Nonetheless, the current landscape is bleak. Freedom House’s metrics show 15 consecutive years of democratic decline. Unprecedented threats to elections across the world have emerged. Geopolitical adversaries have used hacking, disinformation campaigns and other information warfare attacks to destabilize democracies. Those threats rightly gained prominence after the 2016 US elections. However, while the focus shifted to international threats, domestic actors began to borrow Russian-style tactics, spreading false information and sowing doubt on election integrity. Too often, these campaigns achieve their goals — and democracy suffers.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

215. Role of Religious Leaders in Mobilizing Communities to Counter Violent Extremism: A Case Study of Dir Valley of Pakistan

Author:
Shakeel Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Review of Human Rights
Institution:
Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:
Swat and Dir valleys in Pakistan have seen the brunt of post 9/11 violent extremism in the recent past. Because this extremism was generated and exploited by a few religiously motivated violent organizations, a popular perception emerged that all religious leaders of the society were involved in terrorism. Therefore, this research focuses on the role played by those religious leaders who involved themselves in mobilizing local communities against violent extremism. Employing a mixed-method research approach and sequential analysis strategy our data shows that most of the common local religious leaders played positive role inbuilding community resilience to countering violent extremism during the early phase of the War on Terrorism in these two valleys.
Topic:
Religion, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Leadership, Community, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Swat Valley, and Dir Valley

216. The Dynamics of the Succession of Currencies in the 21st Century - A Case of Chinese Financial Leadership?

Author:
Gustavo de Moraes and Leonardo Giacomin
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The global monetary system since the Industrial Revolution in two periods had two periods. First, a period with Britain as the great economic and political power and the Pound Sterling as the most important international currency and second, the United States as the leading economy and a dollar-based international scenario. The relation between goods, money, and foreign exchange markets is important to understand patterns in terms of exchange rate and currency internationalization. Therefore, the Crowther balance of payments cycles may be important to identify these patterns and to serve as a standard of reference to investigate shifts in exchange rate, and their consequences on balance of payments movements. Since 1978, China has emerged as a strong candidate to assume protagonist in the global monetary system, displaying high and stable economic growth. This paper aims to investigate the necessary conditions for China to internationalize the Renminbi, local currency, and to infer its status in that progress.
Topic:
Finance, Leadership, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

217. Failed Strategy? The Legacy of Barack Obama's Presidency in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Magdalena Lewicka and Michal Dahl
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to verify whether “a failed strategy”, a phrase commonly used in the literature, is an adequate description of Barack Obama’s legacy in the Middle East and North Africa. Based on the selected political manifestos and actions in the sphere of diplomacy, it has been proven that the Middle East and North Africa was not a priority to the decision-makers in Washington in the years 2009–2012, unlike in the years 2005–2008. However, although President Obama did not manage to implement most of his original plans, he achieved a few significant successes, the most notable of which is the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran. Authors seek to contextualize and explain Obama’s failures and successes, arguing that using the phrase “a failed strategy” does not reflect the complexity of the problems analyzed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

218. What to Expect from Biden in the Middle East

Author:
William B. Quandt
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
A Biden administration is likely to rewrite a lot of Trump’s Middle East policies, but the Israel-Palestine issue may not be a priority.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

219. Breaking the Historic Taboo

Author:
Allison Hodgkins
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The only way for Israelis to escape perpetual deadlock is to shatter the taboo on inviting Non-Zionist parties into the government. Like Menachem Begin and the Sinai, Netanyahu may be the one to do it.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Zionism, and Tradition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

220. Leading Israel into an Empty Future

Author:
Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
This week’s Israeli Election—the fourth such vote in two years—will likely result in a stalemate or Netanyahu’s eking out another victory. But then what comes next?
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Voting
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel