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131. Navigating the Future of Work: The Role of Immigrant-Origin Workers in the Changing U.S. Economy

Author:
Julia Gelatt, Jeanne Batalova, and Randy Capps
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Immigrant-origin workers—that is, immigrants and their U.S.-born children—have been the main drivers of U.S. workforce growth in recent years. They were responsible for 83 percent of labor force growth between 2010 and 2018, at which point they made up 28 percent of all U.S. workers. Looking ahead, all growth in the working-age population is projected to come from immigrant-origin adults through 2035. Yet research on the future of work in the United States has largely overlooked this important segment of the workforce. This report examines the jobs held by immigrant-origin workers and third/higher-generation workers (those born in the United States to U.S.-born parents), and which of these jobs are likely to grow versus decline due to automation, offshoring, and other trends. It also considers the implications of the changing mix of jobs in the U.S. economy for both workforce development and immigration policy. Among the findings of this data analysis: Similar shares of Immigrant-origin and third/higher-generation workers held “jobs of the future” (22 percent versus 24 percent) and declining jobs (26 percent versus 29 percent) in 2018. Latinos—both those of immigrant origins and the third/higher generation—were less likely than workers in other major racial or ethnic groups to hold jobs of the future and more likely to hold declining jobs. Black immigrant-origin workers were overrepresented in jobs of the future in 2018, particularly in health care and health-care support, while third/higher-generation Black workers were more likely to hold declining jobs, such as office and administrative support occupations. This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative’s home page.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Economy, Immigrants, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

132. Will International Migration Governance Survive the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Author:
Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The toolbox of international migration governance has few instruments for dealing with the migration-related challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Most international agreements on migration are designed to aid people on the move and to assist states in dealing with this movement, voluntary or forced. Yet the pandemic is a disaster characterized more by immobility than movement. While some migrants have been sent back to their origin countries or compelled to return due to job losses, many others have been stranded in destination countries by border closures and travel restrictions, and some would-be migrants have been unable to move abroad as intended. The most recent addition to the migration governance toolbox—the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration—does, however, offer states useful guidance. As this policy brief discusses, the objectives outlined in the compact include some that have gained added, real-time urgency during the pandemic and others that will be essential as states work to restart international migration safely. This brief also considers how the pandemic and its economic fallout have affected the relationship between migration and development, including in terms of its impacts on migrant workers and remittances. With remittances predicted to drop by at least 20 percent globally in 2020 compared to 2019, the effects on remittance-dependent countries will be particularly severe. This may spread the pandemic-induced economic pain even to places that have been relatively less affected by the virus itself. Looking ahead, this brief considers how greater cooperation between states and with multilateral agencies, civil-society organizations, the private sector, and philanthropies can assist in the immediate pandemic response, as well as in efforts to rebuild lost livelihoods and, eventually, reopen legal migration channels.
Topic:
Migration, Governance, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. At the Starting Gate: The Incoming Biden Administration’s Immigration Plans

Author:
Doris Meissner and Michelle Mittelstadt
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
President-elect Joe Biden pledged during the campaign to reverse some of the most restrictive immigration actions undertaken during Donald Trump’s four years in office, including family separation and a travel ban on nationals from majority-Muslim countries. He also vowed to temporarily halt deportations, reinstate the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, increase refugee admissions, and halt construction of the border wall. This policy brief outlines some of the incoming administration’s top immigration priorities and examines challenges and opportunities ahead. Drawing on existing and forthcoming policy ideas from MPI’s Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, the brief sketches several proposals that could begin to shape a U.S. immigration system that advances the national interest going forward. The near-total shutdown of asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, for example, does not represent a long-term strategy nor is it consistent with longstanding U.S. values. Effective long-term solutions to deal with mixed flows of economic and humanitarian migrants entail processes to provide fair, efficient processing of asylum cases, including by having the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Asylum Division oversee the merits of border asylum cases to completion—an MPI recommendation the Biden campaign embraced. The brief, among other proposals, also recommends the creation of multiagency reception centers near the border for one-stop screening of arrivals and speedy turnover to the relevant agencies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Border Control, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

134. The Millennials' Transition from School-to-Work

Author:
Yuet-Yee Linda Wong and Audra J. Bowlus
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
We present the first study of the high school-to-work transition for American Millennial males and females. Using data from the PSID Transition to Adulthood from 2005-2011, we estimate the Burdett and Mortensen (1998) model and study changes between Generation X and Millennials. We find convergence in racial differences in transition patterns across the generations and in gender earnings by the Great Recession. These patterns are driven by a large decline in search efficiencies for white males. Finally, we show the labor market deteriorated for high school graduates prior to, with a further decline during, the Great Recession.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Global Recession, Human Capital, Labor Market, and Productivity
Political Geography:
United States

135. Marriage, Children, and Labor Supply: Beliefs and Outcomes

Author:
Yifan Gong, Todd Stinebrickner, and Ralph Stinebrickner
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
While a large literature is interested in the relationship between family and labor supply outcomes, little is known about the expectations of these objects at earlier stages. We examine these expectations, taking advantage of unique data from the Berea Panel Study. In addition to characterizing expectations, starting during college, the data details outcomes for ten years after graduation. Methodological contributions come from approaches to validate quality of survey expectations data and the recognition that expectations data, along with longitudinal data, can potentially help address endogeneity issues arising in the estimation of the causal effect of family on labor supply.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Human Capital, Family, Labor Market, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

136. Wealth and Shifting Demand Pressures on the Price Level in England After the Black Death

Author:
Anthony Edo and Jacques Melitz
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. This paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on the price level continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The separate roles of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages all also receive attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Infectious Diseases, Population, Trade, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe and England

137. A Comprehensive Overview: Defining and Measuring Informality in India’s Labour Market

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi, Sharad Pandey, and Mohammad Hamza Farooqui
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The brief unbundles the global standard definition of informality with respect to the labour market, a concept often considered inexplicit and broad-based. It presents the parameters used to measure informality in the Indian context, and presents key characteristics of the informal workforce.
Topic:
Employment, Work Culture, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

138. Imperfect competition in product and labour markets. A quantitative analysis

Author:
Dario Tortarolo and Roman D. Zarate
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We disentangle the extent of imperfect competition in product and labor markets using plant level data. We derive a formula for the ratio between markups and markdowns assuming costminimizing firms that face upward-sloping labour supply and downward-sloping product demand curves. We then separate this combined measure of market power by estimating firm-level labour supply elasticities instrumenting wages with a different set of instruments: including the use of intermediate inputs, input price shocks, and TFP shocks. Our results suggest that both markets exhibit imperfect competition, but the variation is mainly driven by markups. We also estimate the relative gains of removing market power dispersion on allocative efficiency, finding that markups are more important on TFP than markdowns.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Finance, Labor Market, Supply Chains, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

139. Unemployment and Income Distribution: Some Extensions of Shaikh’s Analysis

Author:
Walter Paternesi Meloni and Antonella Stirati
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
After the 1980s, advanced capitalist economies witnessed a significant decline of the labor share in income. Along with the conventional view, which ascribed this decline to technological factors and international trade, another line of enquiry has endorsed a ‘Political Economy’ approach to identifying several drivers of the labor share erosion. Among the latter, the role of persistent labor market slack has remained relatively unexplored. We try to fill this gap moving from a recent contribution by Anwar Shaikh, who elaborated on the relation between unemployment and changes in income distribution and in the US economy. We study this relationship by adopting a long-term approach, using two alternative measures of labor market slack (namely, the unemployment rate and the unemployment intensity, an index that incorporates the duration of unemployment). We first extend Shaikh’s method of analysis to eight mature countries, and subsequently we approach the relationship between changes in labor market slack and the (adjusted) wage share in the private sector of the economy from 1960 to 2017 with other econometric techniques. Our findings confirm the existence of a negative relationship between labor market slack and the wage share, and we find no tendency to return to a ‘normal’ unemployment rate associated with a stable wage share.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Unemployment, Labor Market, Collective Bargaining, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

140. Cross-generational Cooperation in the Workplace

Author:
Lenka Farkačová
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Lenka Farkačová deals with the issue of development of networks of cross-generational teams of individual EU countries, which are to serve as tools to achieve the EU’s competitive advantage in the global market. Identifying and retaining employees with high potential and developing their talents for the benefit of the individual is especially important in order to be globally competitive. However, there is a situation where there are several specialized tools for identifying and developing employees, but the size of the population from which potential employees can be recruited is shrinking. What could help countries to deal with the issue of the current and future shortage of people in the labour markets? "The migration of workers1" is a simple answer from many employers (Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, 2019). Disregarding statements like this, it is appropriate to find long-term solutions, e.g. in the form of cross-generation cooperation and partnerships teams.
Topic:
Development, Strategic Competition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe