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111. The distributional effect of a massive exodus in Latin America and the role of downgrading and regularization

Author:
Carlo Lombardo, Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Penaloza-Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The massive displacement of Venezuelan citizens to Colombia is the second most important episode of forced migration in the world. We study the impact of this demographic shock on the Colombian income distribution exploiting the geographical heterogeneity in the intensity of migration. We use RIF regressions in an instrumental variables approach to account for the non-random pattern of location of immigrants. We find that despite the fact that Venezuelan immigrants are relatively skilled compared to native Colombian workers, the exodus had a larger negative effect on the lower tail of the wage distribution, implying increases in income inequality and poverty. We link this result to a sizeable downgrading of (mostly unregistered) Venezuelan recent migrants who work in more routine tasks and earn lower wages than natives with similar characteristics. We also explore a large regularization program for immigrants and find that it was associated to a reduction in the extent of downgrading, and hence, to a mitigation of the unequalizing impact of the exodus.
Topic:
Migration, Income Inequality, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

112. Influence for hire. The Asia-Pacific’s online shadow economy

Author:
Jacob Wallis, Ariel Bogle, Albert Zhang, and Hillary Mansour
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
It’s not just nation-states that interfere in elections and manipulate political discourse. A range of commercial services increasingly engage in such activities, operating in a shadow online influence-for-hire economy that spans from content farms through to high-end PR agencies. There’s growing evidence of states using commercial influence-for-hire networks. The Oxford Internet Institute found 48 instances of states working with influence-for-hire firms in 2019–20, an increase from 21 in 2017–18 and nine in 2016–17. There’s a distinction between legitimate, disclosed political campaigning and government advertising campaigns, on the one hand, and efforts by state actors to covertly manipulate the public opinion of domestic populations or citizens of other countries using inauthentic social media activity, on the other. The use of covert, inauthentic, outsourced online influence is also problematic as it degrades the quality of the public sphere in which citizens must make informed political choices and decisions. The Asia–Pacific region contains many states in different stages of democratisation. Many have transitioned to democratic forms of governance from authoritarian regimes. Some have weak political institutions, limitations on independent media and fragile civil societies. The rapid rate of digital penetration in the region layered over that political context leaves populations vulnerable to online manipulation. In fragile democratic contexts, the prevalence of influence-for-hire operations and their leverage by agents of the state is particularly problematic, given the power imbalance between citizens and the state. A surplus of cheap digital labour makes the Asia–Pacific a focus for operators in this economy, and this report examines the regional influence-for-hire marketplace using case studies of online manipulation in the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and Australia. Governments and other entities in the region contract such services to target and influence their own populations in ways that aren’t transparent and that may inhibit freedom of political expression by drowning out dissenting voices. Several governments have introduced anti-fake-news legislation that has the potential to inhibit civic discourse by limiting popular political dissent or constraining the independence of the media from the state. These trends risk damaging the quality of civic engagement in the region’s emerging democracies.
Topic:
Elections, Labor Market, and Shadow Economy
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

113. New Avenues for Colombia’s Internationalization: Trade in Tasks

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Sebastian Bustos
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
One of the consequences of COVID-19 is the recognition that many tasks can be done from home. But anything that can done remotely, can be done from abroad. Given large salary differences between white collar workers across countries, it would make sense for value chains to try to exploit them. This opens an opportunity for Colombia to further promote its integration into the world global value chains and access new markets. This paper explores the possibility of exporting teleworkable services from Colombia. The goal is to provide useful information to guide strategic interventions to speed-up the development of such service industries in Colombia. We first introduce a definition of teleworkable jobs and describe its occupations and industries along different dimensions. We show that there are many teleworkable jobs in the US, representing a significant share of industry costs. Then, we show that many industries intensive in teleworkable jobs are currently traded across borders. To quantify Colombia’s advantage providing teleworkable services, we study the cost structure of industries and quantify the potential savings in overall costs if the tasks were performed by Colombians. Given Colombia’s current presence and the density around teleworkable industries we can calculate a proxy of the latent advantage in teleworkable services. We propose an index that summarize these dimensions and rank the potential gains from including telework from Colombia in an industry. We end with a set of policy recommendations to move this agenda forward.
Topic:
Human Capital, COVID-19, Labor Market, Skills, and Telework
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

114. Cracking the future of work: Automation and labor platforms in the Global South

Author:
Ramiro Albrieu
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
The book “Cracking the future of work. Automation and labor platforms in the Global South“ is the result of the collaboration of many. More than twenty five experts from Asia, Latin America, the Middle East & North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa transformed their valuable findings into the chapters of this book with heterogeneous perspectives. Developing countries face specific challenges that the standard literature has not yet managed to include as part of a truly global view on how technology and labor markets interact. This book aims to enrich the future of work debates with evidence from the Global South. This, in turn, is key for a policy agenda that needs context-specific and data-driven frameworks to promote the creation of high-quality jobs in developing countries amid the fourth industrial revolution.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global South

115. Down and Out? The Gendered Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on India’s Labour Market

Author:
Rosa Abraham, Amit Basole, and Surbhi Kesar
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has created unprecedented disruptions in labour markets across the world including loss of employment and decline in incomes. Using panel data from India, we investigate the differential impact of the shock on labour market outcomes for male and female workers. We find that, conditional on being in the workforce prior to the pandemic, women were seven times more likely to lose work during the nationwide lockdown, and conditional on losing work, eleven times more likely to not return to work subsequently, compared to men. Using logit regressions on a sample stratified by gender, we find that daily wage and young workers, whether men or women, were more likely to face job loss. Education shielded male workers from job loss, whereas highly educated female workers were more vulnerable to job loss. Marriage had contrasting effects for men and women, with married women less likely to return to work and married men more likely to return to work. Religion and gender intersect to exacerbate the disproportionate impact, with Muslim women more likely to not return to work, unlike Muslim men where we find religion having no significant impact. Finally, for those workers who did return to work, we find that a large share of men in the workforce moved to self-employment or daily wage work, in agriculture, trade or construction. For women, on the other hand, there is limited movement into alternate employment arrangements or industries. This suggests that typical ‘fallback’ options for employment do not exist for women. During such a shock, women are forced to exit the workforce whereas men negotiate across industries and employment arrangements.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
India

116. Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go? Labour Market Transitions in India

Author:
Rahul Menon and Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Using two rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) covering the periods 2017-18 and 2018-19, we construct a panel of urban Indian individuals aged 15 to 65, and analyse the dynamics of their participation – or non-participation – in the labour force. We construct transition probabilities to study the movement of individuals through three distinct statuses – employment, unemployment and non-participation – at the aggregate level and for different demographic groups. We find evidence of considerable movements from the labour force to non-participation; there exists a significant discouraged worker effect as well as a pronounced movement from employment outside the labour force, specifically for women. A majority of those unemployed in the beginning of the year remain so at the end of the year, indicating the presence of long-term unemployment. The reduction in unemployment rates from 2017-18 to 2018-19 hides significant weaknesses in Indian urban labour markets. This study represents an original contribution to the field of Indian labour economics, given the paucity of large-scale studies of the dynamics of Indian labour.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:
India

117. Social clauses in trade agreements: implications and action points for the private sector in developing countries

Author:
Anna Liz Thomas, Jarrod Suda, and Gaia Grasselli
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Since the 1990s, more free trade agreements have come to include social clauses, which make reference to domestic and international labour standards. As this international legal web continues to grow, so too will the questions and concerns from employers and businesses. This Tradelab report, for the International Organisation of Employers, provides practical guidance for those employers and businesses. It does so by taking the diverse array of actors, the tensions within, and the opportunities set forth by free trade agreements and elaborating upon them using three case studies.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, Free Trade, Trade, International Business, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

118. South Africa's Migration Dynamics: From Segregation to Integration

Author:
Bianca-Anastasia Ionel and George Mihai Constantinescu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Migration is an extremely complex and sensitive concept. The main research purpose is the migration phenomena from the perspective of integration policies adopted by the country of destination concerning the process of cross-border immigration. In this research, we used as a case study the events in South Africa from 2014 until 2019. We chose this country because of its economic development, relative prosperity being one of the main reasons why migrants chose this country. The government is obliged to rethink its policies regarding the status of migrants. Using a qualitative approach, we used four levels of analysis (access to education, labor market, healthcare, political participation) to conduct an exploratory study on how South Africa’s government manages the integration policies. Using official documents and media articles we tried to determine the main characteristics of public policies in regards to integration in terms of social, economics, and politics.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Citizenship, Integration, Labor Market, and Segregation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

119. Barriers To Formalization Of Businesses In Cameroon: High Tax Rates

Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Clearly expressed in its National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30), Cameroon’s desire for the coming decade is to achieve sustainable growth driven by the manufacturing industry. Thus, the government hopes to increase (i) manufacturing value-added from 14.5% in 2017 to 25% in 2030 and (ii) the share of manufacturing exports to 54.5%. However, in the absence of an efficient industrial sector, the economy tends to specialize in the “end of the chain” activities, including extraction (mining and oil) and subsistence agriculture on the one hand and trade and services on the other. According to the Third Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector conducted by Cameroon’s National Institute of Statistics in 2018, nearly 90% of the Cameroonian labor force remains trapped in the informal sector. The sector comprises a set of individual companies – generally nonagricultural – that operate on a small scale and are not registered with the competent authorities. Many entrepreneurs choose to operate informally because of barriers to formalization. For example, businesses spend an average of 624 hours to make 44 payments per year to the tax authorities. The total tax rate remains one of the highest in Central Africa, at 57.7% of business profits than 47.1% in Gabon (World Bank, 2020).
Topic:
Labor Issues, Business, Tax Systems, Economic Development, Sustainability, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

120. A ‘She-session’? The Impact of COVID-19 on the Labour Market in Thailand

Author:
Sasiwimon W. Paweenawat and Lusi Liao
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of COVID-19 on different demographic groups in the Thai labour market using the Labour Force Survey in 2018 and 2019. We construct a new set of COVID-19 impact indicators capturing both the degree of risk in industries and degree of occupational flexibility in the Thai context. Our results show that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is highly unequal across demographic groups and it may further worsen the pre-existing inequality in the Thai labour market as a result of the composition of industrial sectors and occupations. The results suggest that education attainments and income levels play a significant role in protecting individuals from the current crisis, indicating the important contribution of human capital. In addition, marriage affects men and women differently in the COVID-19 crisis, with married women suffering more. Finally, our study highlights the need for government supports that target vulnerable groups, including workers with low education, informal workers, private employees, older women, and the young, who are more likely to be affected by COVID-19.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Governance, Employment, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia