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71. The European institutions dealing with crises

Author:
Charles Fries
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It is often said, and rightly so, that Europe only moves forward under the effect of crises. It is only in dramatic circumstances that the European Union manages to make real progress in terms of its integration. We saw this, for example, with the financial crisis of 2008 or, more recently, the Covid pandemic when, in 2020, for the first time, the 27 Member States agreed to pool their debts to revive their economies[1]. The war in Ukraine provides a new tragic illustration of this. The return of war to European territory has already changed Europe: - by bringing to an end an overly idealised - some would say naïve - vision of international relations in which, thanks to trade and economic interdependence, the instincts of conquest and domination would spontaneously diminish due to the virtues of trade: this war has shown that it was high time to reduce our vulnerabilities with regard to Russian energy and our excessive dependency on the Chinese market! - by bringing back to the fore the conventional high-intensity conflict between states, combined more and more with hybrid threats (such as the instrumentalization of migrant and refugee flows, disinformation and cyber-attacks) whereas, since the end of the Cold War, we thought we had to carry out mainly expeditionary-type interventions, far from Europe, and to face terrorist attacks. - by pushing Europeans to defend an international order, more than ever before, based on rules and multilateral cooperation - stemming from the United Nations Charter - in the face of powers that openly contest it, nostalgic for their imperial past and adept at the sole use of force. Even before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell, had emphasised the extent to which Europe was in danger. In his view, if the European Union still wanted to count on the international scene, it had to overcome its timidity, face up to the world as it was and not as we had dreamed it would be, set itself the ambition of becoming a real geopolitical player and equip itself with the tools to speak the "language of power". Russia's invasion of Ukraine has amplified and accelerated this new awareness. The spectacular decisions taken by several Member States, which would have been inconceivable before 24 February 2022, bear witness to this: Sweden and Finland's applications to join NATO, the referendum in Denmark allowing this country to join the Union's Common Security and Defence Policy - CSDP - (after 30 years of "opt-out") or the announcement of a €100 billion increase in defence spending by the German Chancellor. The war in Ukraine has therefore been a stark reminder of the need for Member States, in an increasingly dangerous and unpredictable strategic environment, to increase their military budgets and stand together.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Institutions, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

72. Clarifying China’s Rise Puzzle: Comparison of the Modernisation and Primacy of Institutions Theories

Author:
Ekrem Ok
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Academics show great interest in the progress of countries and the disparities between developing and developed countries. This is grounded on a belief that the change in the number of developed/developing countries may play a significant role in determining the future of the international system. Therefore, China’s rise has a vital place in the study of international systems. Given its sui generis economic and political structure, China is a hard-to-predict country for most academics working on international systems. In this context, this study will look at China’s rise through the lenses of Modernisation and Primacy of Institutions theories and discuss which describes China’s rise more accurately. This will involve a comparative analysis of both theories with historical and political data in order to evaluate their respective arguments.
Topic:
Institutions, Modernization, and International System
Political Geography:
China and Asia

73. The Crossroads Between Actors, Norms, Practices and Institutions

Author:
Sérgio Luiz Cruz Aguilar
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Intergovernmental organisations and institutions are generally created to discuss and find collective solutions to problems that transcend national borders and individual states’ capacities. However, certain crises push for isolated, typically restrictive, actions from governments, making the role of such institutions somewhat murky. The South American Conference on Migration (SCM), the Specialized Migration Forum of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), and the Andean Committee of Migration Authorities of the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) are three intergovernmental forums that were created with the aim of negotiating agreements, creating and implementing community legislation, and achieving regional policy with regards to migration. However, from 2015, mass migration from Venezuela, which was considered a crisis by South American governments, led to restrictive policies in some countries. In this context, this paper discusses the linkages between institutions, actors, norms and practices by examining the interactions between SCM, Mercosur and CAN and the practices of Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru regarding the Venezuelan migration crisis. Through a qualitative approach, observations of practice and discourse, and the critical analysis thereof, this paper discusses debates and decisions within institutions; the emergence and non-compliance of collective norms; and the contradictory practices employed as responses to the migration crisis.
Topic:
International Organization, Institutions, and Norms
Political Geography:
South America

74. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

75. Trust a few: natural disasters and the formation of trust in Africa

Author:
Robert Mackay, Astghik Mavisakalyan, and Yashar Tarverdi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Individuals are at their most mental plasticity in their impressionable years (ages 18–25 years) forming long-term attitudes and behaviours essential to functioning in a society, such as trust. In this paper we ask how exposure to natural disasters within the impressionable years may affect the formation of trust by matching data from over 1,000 disaster occurrences with data from 88,670 individuals across 36 African nations. Exploiting the frequency of disaster exposure across the impressionable years, we show that disaster exposure has a negative and significant association with generalized trust. Additionally, we show that disasters experienced during the impressionable years have an impact on other dimensions of interpersonal and institutional trust. Our findings are robust to a battery of tests and add to the evidence base on the lasting impacts of natural disasters on individuals and societies.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

76. Good Practices in the Provision of Global Public Goods: How multilateral development banks build on global public goods in their operations

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff and Hannah Zick
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In our flagship report, ‘Multilateral Development Banks for Global Public Goods’, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Oxford Economics highlighted the positive role that the use of GPGs can play in preventing and addressing crises that cross national boundaries. As part of that work, we wanted to identify and share promising practices and good examples of how the provision of GPGs can be supported through international funding—and in particular through MDBs. We gathered a longlist of 99 examples of MDBs supporting GPG provision based on comprehensive desk research and interviews with over 30 key actors in the realm of project development. From this, we selected 20 case studies to carry out “deep dive” research to showcase good practices of provision of GPGs by MDBs based on whether the intervention: benefitted not only people inside the country of implementation but also beyond the country’s borders; supported the implementation of framework conditions that change the incentive structure for the provision of GPGs; could be replicated in other countries; and rated a good practice in reports or named a good practice by interview partners from MDBs. As a result, we gathered examples of GPG projects supported by MDBs and multilateral institutions at the country level that might not have been intended to only support GPG provision—such as those GPG projects mostly financed via Trust Funds and FIFs—but which also produced high GPG effects by maximising the synergies between national and global benefits. The case studies are designed to inform stakeholders from MDBs and receiving countries involved in the programming and project designing of development cooperation alike. The case studies showcase promising and highly replicable ways of supporting the provision of GPGs in the MDBs’ country engagement—considering both national and cross-country benefits of an intervention. Furthermore, valuable lessons can be learned on the institutional set-up, financing, quantification etc. concerning the support of GPGs by MDBs. They include examples of projects in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, and which covered issues such as climate and the environment, global public health, peace and security, financial resilience, and a fair international trading system. In a synthesis report, we set out 12 recommendations to organisations implementing GPGs to ensure they maximise the benefits on the ground, based on our findings from the analysis of the case studies. These range from using cost-benefit analysis and focusing on projects with high cross-country benefits to helping coordination of in-country provision and encouraging regional learning.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Institutions, Public Health, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
South Asia, East Asia, Germany, Latin America, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

77. Political Party Preferences on Local Election in Indonesia: How Does Rational Choice Institutionalism Work in Candidate Selection?

Author:
Syafhendry, Andi Luhr Prianto, and Nina Yuslaini
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The rational choice institutionalism approach provides insight into political parties’ personal and institutional preferences in determining their strategic and technical-operational decisions. Institutional and personal preferences in political parties have shaped rational choices in selecting regional head candidates. Political party preferences provide rational choices based on the values they believe have shaped political responses to individuals and institutions. This study will examine selecting mayor and deputy mayor candidates in regional head elections. This study maps the preferences of political parties in determining their rational choices. The qualitative research method involves field interviews, online media analysis, and the examination of social media data. The data processing includes content analysis conducted using NVivo 12 Plus software. The study results indicate that political parties as political institutions are very centralized and pragmatic in determining the results of selecting regional head candidates. There are variations in the types of preferences of political parties in the candidates, namely systemic, practical, and normative preferences. Internal regulations support systemic preferences, practical preferences are determined by party procedures, directors, and selection criteria, and normative preferences are based on political parties’ ideology, values, and goals. Normative preferences will only become mainstream in the candidacy of political parties if party ideology strengthens and the candidate selection mechanism is transformed into a democracy-based selection.
Topic:
Elections, Institutions, Political Parties, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. The Art of Paradigm Maintenance: How the ‘Science of Monetary Policy’ tries to deal with the inflation of 2021-2023

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The macroeconomic models used by major institutions including the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to predict the inflation surge during 2021-2023. The output gap, the unemployment gap, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation expectations did not give timely and relevant signals. The re-emergence of inflation thus threw the ‘science of monetary policy’ off the rails. Faced with the choice between changing their paradigm and proving that there is no need to do so, the ‘scientists of monetary policy’ got busy on the proof. As a result, a number of ad-hoc epicycles have been added to the New Keynesian analytical core—with the help of which one can claim to be able to explain the sudden acceleration of inflation post-factum. This paper critically reviews the theoretical and empirical merits of three recent tweaks to the New Keynesian core: using the vacancy ratio as the appropriate measure of real economic activity; hammering on the considerable risk of an imminent wage-price spiral; and the resurrection of the non-linear Phillips curve. The paper concludes by drawing out sobering lessons concerning the art of paradigm maintenance as practiced by the ‘scientists of monetary policy’.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Institutions, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. The Dynamics of the Right to Social Protection in the Arab Region: Exploring the Role of the State in Changing Times

Author:
Azza El Hajj Sleiman
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Most Arab countries are currently experiencing a critical juncture in their history, encompassing not only political, social, and economic aspects but also legal dimensions. In contrast to many other regions, Arab societies are undergoing significant transformations, influenced by two fundamental factors: the digital revolution and economic globalization, and their wide-ranging social implications. Moreover, Arab countries are witnessing profound political shifts, with some experiencing complete state and institutional collapse, as in Lebanon, Tunisia, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, and others. Security crises have emerged in certain Arab countries while economic and financial difficulties plague others, further complicating matters. Furthermore, the relationship between governance and society in some nations, as well as the nature of governance itself, poses its own set of challenges. Amidst this transitional period, the role of law and its capacity to safeguard society emerges as a common thread, constituting a significant challenge in this critical phase of Arab history. These challenges exacerbate the severity of crises and underscore the delicate nature of the current stage, necessitating a comprehensive approach at the intellectual, scientific, and societal levels. When dealing with political systems, it is imperative to acknowledge the indispensable role of legal principles, as they form the foundational tools of governance. The study of law extends beyond the mere examination, interpretation, and application of legislative texts and the rights they aim to safeguard; legal studies delve deeply into the fundamental aspects and essence of the rule of law and the mechanisms required for its effective implementation. This line of reasoning holds great importance, recognizing as it does that the source of legal norms lies with those in authority, as highlighted by Bernard Teyssié during a legal conference held at the French Senate in 2004.1 The connection between the enforcement of laws and political power, complicated by issues of jurisdiction, underscores the gravity of this relationship. Traditionally, both the issuance and enforcement of legal rules have been the exclusive domain of the state and its constitutional institutions.2 However, in the modern era, the most prominent and contemporary force shaping these dynamics is the end of exclusive state authority, largely influenced by the impact of neoliberalism. The exploration of the sources of law and their efficacy has traditionally been the domain of social sciences, politics, and philosophy until the positive school3 of law defined them, with the exception of customs, within formal constitutional frameworks. However, the evolving landscape of postmodern societies, the prevalence of neoliberalism, and the rise of social individualism have thrust this issue into the forefront of research, work, and contemplation across various societal actors. These transformations have not only altered the roles of individuals and groups but also impacted their very existence. The term “actors in society” encompasses a wide spectrum of individuals and entities. It includes citizens and residents, both as individuals and as collective groups. It also comprises civil society organizations, political parties, and economic actors ranging from small-scale local businesses to multinational corporations and economic projects. This purview also extends to all state institutions that play a role in shaping and implementing legal frameworks.
Topic:
Law, Institutions, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and North America

80. Digital Surveillance in Serbia

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
People’s ever-stronger reliance on digital technologies and devices has caused states and private actors to increasingly reach for various systems and tools for the digital surveillance of citizens. Consequently, high-resolution cameras, artificial intelligence, programmes for biometric recognition, tools for automatic data collection from the Internet, and intrusive software for monitoring mobile phones have become the everyday reality of people worldwide. The spread of digital surveillance in Serbia is highly non-transparent, and especially dangerous since Serbia has been assessed as a captured state characterised by the abuse of state resources for the sake of personal and party interests. Although the reports by the media and investigative journalists are important, they are focused on individual cases, which makes it difficult to get a broader picture of the scale of the digital surveillance problem in Serbia based on them. That is why it is important, starting from the existing reports, to map the digital surveillance infrastructure in Serbia, i.e. to make a list of digital surveillance equipment and programmes the state institutions have acquired, determine whether they are competent and authorised to use them, and how these technologies are misused. Since Serbia is striving to become a member of the European Union (EU), it is also important to show how the EU is attempting to regulate this area.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Surveillance, Institutions, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia