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31. Decoding Inflation: Role of Institutional Quality in Türkiye Using Advanced Econometric Techniques

Author:
Yıldırım Beyazıt Çiçen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Persistent inflation remains a significant economic challenge in Türkiye. The causes of high inflation have been examined through various factors, including supply and demand, as well as monetary and fiscal policies. However, few studies have included institutional factors in their analyses. The objective of this study is to determine whether institutional quality affects inflation in Türkiye. A novel and robust econometric analysis method is employed in this study. Between 2005 and 2019, the inflation rate, the International Country Risk Guide’s (ICRG) Political Risk Rating index, which measures the quality of institutional structure, and the changes in currency exchange rate basket variables in Türkiye were examined using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test and the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the analysis indicate that inflation rate is co-integrated with institutional quality. The deterioration of institutional quality in Türkiye between 2005 and 2019 has been associated with an increase in inflation. While the implicit inflation targeting period in the inflation targeting regime implemented in Türkiye after 2002 was relatively successful, the explicit inflation targeting period failed to reduce inflation. The primary reason for the inability to achieve the specified inflation targets during these periods is the deterioration in the quality of institutions. It is also important to note that central bank independence is not immune to political influence and is one of the most important factors affecting inflation targeting.
Topic:
Institutions, Inflation, Central Bank, and Econometrics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

32. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman

Author:
F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

33. Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
No country in Latin America suffers higher rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions than Peru. Absent remedies for political polarisation and state dysfunction, the mass protests that rocked the country in late 2022 could easily recur, bringing comparably violent crackdowns.
Topic:
Democracy, Political stability, Institutions, Polarization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

34. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens

Author:
Jelena Pejic Nikic and Predrag Petrovic
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
There are many findings of domestic and foreign research organisations that unequivocally indicate that Serbia is a captured state, with a hybrid political regime. Security institutions play a major role in the capture of the state and the collapse of democracy in Serbia, as well as in preserving the situation the way it is. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) was one the first organisations in Serbia to notice this negative trend; consequently, in 2019 and 2020, we investigated and documented in detail the role of the security intelligence services, the police, the army and private security companies in capturing the state, as well as the impotence of oversight and control bodies. In the research that followed in 2021, we established that the government of the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Aleksandar Vučić, had completed the capture of the state and that today’s security institutions are operating with the aim of preserving such a state of affairs. We also researched the foreign policy aspects of this negative process. Public opinion surveys conducted by BCSP have also established that the majority of the citizens are aware that Serbia is a captured state, i.e. that politicians, organised into interest groups, use state institutions together with financially powerful actors to further strengthen their political and financial power, all to the great detriment of citizens. Since state institutions are deeply captured and the citizens are aware of that fact, we have decided not to further document this process; in this study, we rather tried to determine how to organise the security institutions and strengthen their external overseers so that the security sector can no longer be easy prey for those who are politically and financially powerful. In other words, we wanted to determine how to ensure that security institutions work in the interest of citizens, precisely as the Constitution of Serbia requires. The starting point of this endeavour were the findings of the above mentioned BCSP research, in which we identified the “gray areas” and “veto points” within the security sector, that is, legal and institutional solutions that made it possible to capture these institutions quite easily. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. The interviews helped us to confirm, but also to refute our assumptions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Institutions, and State Capture
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

35. Bretton Woods Institutions: 80 Years and Counting

Author:
Roman Marshavin
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
ON JULY 22, 2024, the world marked the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Bretton Woods Conference, which led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. This milestone provides an opportune moment to assess the progress achieved and reflect on future challenges. In 1944, when these institutions were created, the world was vastly different. World War II was still ongoing, but the defeat of Nazism was within reach. Beginning in 1943, consultations were held in Moscow and Washington among the Allies of the anti-Hitler coalition – primarily the US, the UK, and the USSR – regarding the future world order, including its economic dimensions. The Soviet delegation, led by Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Trade Mikhail Stepanov, played an active role in these discussions, including the establishment of the UN and financial institutions. It is fair to say that without the USSR’s participation, the creation of the first-ever truly global financial institutions would have been impossible. Archival materials confirm the high level of preparation by Soviet experts and their diplomatic skills, which enabled them to defend several key positions for the country and reflect them in the final documents.
Topic:
World Bank, Institutions, IMF, BRICS, and Bretton Woods
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States of America, and Global South

36. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall

Author:
Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

37. The Sahel intervention as a case study of France’s security policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Pavlos Petidis
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The analysis traces France’s shift from a unilateral approach, exemplified by the Françafrique policy, to a more multilateral and regionally integrated strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region. The Rwandan genocide in 1994 marked a pivotal moment for French policy, prompting a transition towards greater emphasis on multilateralism and regional security initiatives, influenced by lessons learned from past interventions. France’s engagement in the Sahel has been guided by the principle of “African solutions to African problems,” as evidenced by efforts to support regional initiatives and collaborate with African-led peacekeeping missions. Despite efforts to engage the European Union in Sahelian security issues, France has encountered challenges in achieving meaningful European involvement due to divergent priorities among EU member states and skepticism towards intervention in African affairs. The text highlights the complexities of operational effectiveness in French military interventions, with factors such as institutional coordination, resource allocation, and strategic objectives influencing outcomes. France’s efforts to coordinate with EU initiatives and other international actors in the Sahel have been hindered by overlapping responsibilities, divergent mandates, and competition among stakeholders, leading to implementation challenges. Public opinion in Mali regarding French military presence has evolved from initial support to skepticism and criticism, fueled by perceptions of France’s colonial legacy, operational shortcomings, and conspiracy theories. President Macron’s approach to Africa seeks to redefine France’s relationship with its former colonies, emphasizing partnership and mutual respect while addressing historical grievances and promoting economic cooperation. Rising violence, political instability, and governance challenges in the Sahel region pose significant obstacles to France’s intervention efforts and highlight the need for comprehensive, sustainable solutions. France faces a dilemma between promoting democratic values and protecting its strategic interests in Africa, amidst shifting regional dynamics and growing scrutiny of its interventionist policies. Collaborative approaches with European partners and nuanced policy conversations are deemed essential for navigating this complex landscape.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, France, Sahel, and Sub-Saharan Africa

38. The von der Leyen Commission 2.0: Institutional Features, Portfolios and Mission Letters

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Dimitrios Kollias
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The policy brief outlines the strategic vision and structural reorganisation of the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. Emphasising “Security, Prosperity, and Democracy,” von der Leyen’s Commission 2.0 consolidates power through a streamlined, centralised structure with six Executive Vice-Presidents, aiming for a more responsive and efficient EU. Each Commissioner has been assigned specific, often overlapping, missions focusing on key areas such as the Green Deal, technological sovereignty, and European defence. This centralisation marks a shift toward a more presidential model, raising concerns about governance complexity and missed opportunities for deeper citizen engagement and clearer portfolio distinctions. At the same time, it constitutes the core strategic approach to addressing the EU’s complex priorities. Vision: President Ursula von der Leyen prioritises “Security, Prosperity, and Democracy,” aiming for a responsive, flexible, and efficient European Union. New Commission Structure: The von der Leyen Commission 2.0 introduces a centralised structure with six Executive Vice-Presidents, removing traditional Vice-Presidents to streamline leadership. Mission Letters: Each of the 26 Commissioners-designate received specific missions, with major focuses on the Green Deal, technological sovereignty, industrial sovereignty, and European defence. Presidentialisation: The Commission’s structure reflects increased centralisation, reinforcing von der Leyen’s authority and moving towards a presidential model. Challenges: Overlapping portfolios (e.g., environment, defence, and competitiveness) create complexity and redundancy across roles. Missed Opportunities: The new structure lacks a dedicated focus on EU governance reform and clearer citizen engagement pathways, which could enhance responsiveness to public concerns​. Strategic Approach: The persistent overlap of portfolios necessitates a centralised, streamlined structure to improve governance and address the EU’s complex priorities
Topic:
Institutions, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

39. The Evolution of Public Opinion in Greece and Turkey (2021-2023): Dynamics and Shifts in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Evren Balta and Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
ELIAMEP joined forces with IPC with the support of DiaNEOsis to organize the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series. Five rounds of surveys were conducted concurrently in both countries, exploring cooperation, conflict, nationalism, perceptions, multilateral institutions, and societal linkages. A strong preference was recorded for peaceful means of conflict resolution, with variations in emphasis on bilateral talks and multilateralism. The presence of Turkey in the Greek public sphere is much stronger than the presence of Greece in the Turkish public sphere. Greek views of Turkey are more coherent compared to Turkish views of Greece. Religiosity is a significant indicator of attitudes towards the other side. Both public opinions are sceptic regarding the role of international actors, as there is concern about their bias in favour of the other side. This study is based on the results of the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series organized by ELIAMEP and IPC and supported by DiaNEOsis. Through its five waves, this survey has identified similarities, differences and dynamics in the views Greeks and Turks have of each other and of Greek-Turkish bilateral disputes; their views about their own country’s position in the world, its relations with the European Union, the United States and Russia; as well as their perceptions of domestic institutions and the future both of their country and of themselves. The study highlights the fact that, despite the escalation in Greek-Turkish relations since 2018, most Greek and Turkish respondents displayed a preference for non-violent means of conflict resolution, even though they disagreed about both the root causes of the bilateral disputes and the appropriate solutions.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Survey
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

40. Non-meritocrats or choice-reluctant meritocrats? A redistribution experiment in China and France

Author:
Margot Belguise, Yuchen Huang, and Zhexun Mo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Recent experimental evidence contends that meritocratic ideals are mainly a Western phenomenon. Intriguingly, the Chinese public does not appear to differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, despite China’s historical emphasis on meritocratic institutions. We propose that this phenomenon could be due to the Chinese public’s greater reluctance to make an active choice in realstake redistribution decisions. We run an incentivized redistribution experiment with elite university students in China and France, by varying the initial split of payoffs between two real-life workers to redistribute from. We show that, compared to French respondents, Chinese respondents consistently and significantly choose more non-redistribution across both highly unequal and relatively equal status quo scenarios. Additionally, we also find that Chinese respondents do differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, and do not redistribute less than the French, excluding the individuals who engage in non-redistribution choices. Chinese respondents are also as reactive as the French towards scenarios with noisy signals of merit, such as inequalities of opportunities. Ultimately, we contend that the reluctance to make an active choice is indicative of diminished political agency to act upon redistribution decisions with real-life stakes, rather than apathy, inattention, having benefited from the status quo in Chinese society or libertarian preferences among the Chinese. Notably, our findings show that Chinese individuals’ reluctance to make a choice is particularly pronounced among those from families of working-class and farming backgrounds, while it is absent among individuals whose families have closer ties to the private sector.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Class, Institutions, Redistribution, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and France