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1. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:
Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?

Author:
Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Takers Not Makers: The unjust poverty and unearned wealth of colonialism

Author:
Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Chandreyi Gunaray Gomez, Dana Abed, Max Lawson, and Neelanjana Mukhia
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Billionaire wealth has risen three times faster in 2024 than in 2023. Five trillionaires are now expected within a decade. Meanwhile, crises of economy, climate and conflict mean the number of people living in poverty has barely changed since 1990. Most billionaire wealth is taken, not earned- 60% comes from either inheritance, cronyism, corruption or monopoly power. Our deeply unequal world has a long history of colonial domination which has largely benefited the richest people. The poorest, racialized people, women and marginalized groups have been and continue to be systematically exploited at huge human costs. Today’s world remains colonial in many ways. This must be reversed. Reparations must be made to those who were brutally enslaved and colonised. Our modern-day colonial economic system must be made radically more equal to end poverty. The cost should be borne by the richest people who benefit the most.
Topic:
Inequality, Colonialism, Cronyism, Monopoly, Justice, Reparations, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Beyond the Targets: An ambitious agenda to put aid back on track

Author:
Salvatore Nocerino
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Aid can make a huge contribution to significantly reducing inequality. Given the widespread agreement that bringing down inequality is necessary to underpin efforts to end poverty, achieve gender justice and successfully fight climate change, there is an urgent need for donors to make this a priority in their aid policies. For this virtuous cycle to be effective, there is also an imperative to rebalance decision-making on aid, ensuring it is done in an inclusive way that centres Global South governments and civil society. Building on the findings of the 2019 Oxfam report 'Hitting the Target: An agenda for aid in times of extreme inequality', this paper presents a new and updated agenda to put aid back on track given recent changes in the development landscape and the multiple crises facing our world. It makes 10 concrete recommendations on how to ensure development finance effectively contributes to building a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The Private Sphere Trap: Women and the climate crisis in Iraq

Author:
Laila Barhoum
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This Oxfam briefing paper examines the intersection of gender inequality and climate change in Iraq, focusing on the agricultural sector. Women in Iraq face systemic barriers that confine them to the "private sphere," limiting their participation in decision-making processes critical to climate adaptation and mitigation. Through qualitative research, including focus group discussions and key informant interviews, the paper highlights how social norms, economic dependency, and lack of access to resources exacerbate women’s vulnerability to climate impacts. It provides actionable recommendations to foster inclusive climate action, such as raising awareness, leveraging respected female leaders, and improving technical support for farmers. The report underscores the urgent need to dismantle male-dominated structures to build a resilient and equitable future for Iraq.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Inequality, Rural, Decision-Making, Adaptation, Livelihoods, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

6. Climate Change, Vulnerable Groups, and Data-Driven Policymaking

Author:
Selahattin Selsah Pasali
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
More than four in five people in Asia and the Pacific reportedly face multi‑hazard risks associated with slow or sudden onset climate events, according to the latest Asia‑Pacific Disaster Report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Many existing hotspots of climate‑related multi‑hazards are forecast to intensify. Individuals residing in these hotspots, often already low‑income and with limited access to basic services and infrastructure, will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden‑ and slow‑onset natural disasters. Noteworthy is the assessment that migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and stateless persons residing in many parts of these vast geographic areas reportedly face even more daunting challenges in this category, due to their vulnerable legal status, limited coping capacity, and access to basic services and opportunities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Inequality, Displacement, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Asia

7. Gender diversity and economic growth

Author:
Jonathan Ostry
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most macroeconomic and growth accounting models assume that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical question that this paper aims to answer by estimating the elasticity of substitution between female and male labour. We apply linear and non-linear techniques to firm-level data, cross-country sectoral data and cross-country aggregate data. We find that women and men are far from being perfect substitutes in production, a result that is consistent with much microeconomic evidence, but has not permeated to macroeconomics. The failure to account for imperfect gender substitutability has far-reaching implications. In particular, standard growth accounting exercises are likely to attribute to technological progress gains that are more properly attributable to the impact of greater gender inclusiveness in the labour force over time. Put differently, the gains from gender inclusiveness are likely to be much larger than standard economic models estimate.
Topic:
Governance, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:
David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America

Author:
Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
Political Geography:
Latin America

10. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
Political Geography:
Latin America