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11. From Stunt to Substance: An assessment of IMF engagement with civil society

Author:
Nabil Abdo, Nadia Daar, and Alex Ray
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is doling out billions of dollars, influencing economies around the world through its finance, and through the policies it expects governments to implement in return for the funds. But who has a say in those decisions? This paper presents case study research from Pakistan, Tunisia, Egypt, Ecuador, Argentina, Zambia and Ghana to assess the extent and meaningfulness of IMF engagement with civil society. With findings on power, motivations, impact and the importance of civic space considerations, the paper makes the case for significantly improved engagement, and recommends how to do so systematically, meaningfully and safely.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, International Cooperation, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. To Deal or Not to Deal: How to Support Tunisia out of Its Predicament

Author:
Michaël Ayari and Riccardo Fabiani
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia is beset by deepening political and economic challenges. President Kais Saied is transforming the country’s parliamentary system into an authoritarian presidential one that has become increasingly repressive. Arrests and convictions of opposition politicians have surged. Saied’s aggressive anti-foreigner discourse has fuelled xenophobic sentiment and contributed to a spike in violent attacks against sub-Saharan migrants. Economically, Tunisia is grappling with the fallout of a decade of sluggish growth compounded by a series of economic shocks since 2020. The nation’s public debt has soared, with significant debt repayments looming. As the country tries to deal with mounting financial constraints, its inability to attract foreign loans is further clouding its economic future. Saied now must decide whether to embrace a credit agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or potentially default on Tunisia’s foreign debt. Against this backdrop, the EU and, in particular, Italy have a pivotal role to play. They can either help steer Tunisia toward a more stable economic future or watch it descend into chaos.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Aid, European Union, and IMF
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

13. Critical Crossroads: Tunisia’s Choice between a Comprehensive EU Partnership and Economic Collapse

Author:
Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
ince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Tunisian authorities reached in October 2022 a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies, Tunisian President Kais Saied has been standing at the Rubicon. Lacking a vision to revive the Tunisian economy, President Saied has opted for a strategy of diversion and scapegoating. By blowing on the embers of xenophobia among his supporters and more recently by stoking the flames in the Middle East, he continues to deflect attention to conceal his economic short-sightedness and claims autonomy from foreign – mainly European – aid, in the name of sovereignty. This posture has now trapped him in his own rhetoric at a time when the Tunisian economy struggles without signs of recovery or resilience in a challenging regional and global landscape. Time is ticking, the situation remains grim, and the country may miss another opportunity to resume economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, Partnerships, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Italy, and Tunisia

14. The International Monetary Fund and Neonatal Mortality Rates, 1985-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Michael Ash, Bridget Diana, Lawrence King, Joseph Lavallee, Ta Minh Quan, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In 2015, 193 nations committed to UN Sustainable Development Goal 3·2, which aims to reduce child mortality rates by 2030. Despite progress, challenges remain, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs may influence these outcomes through structural adjustments which prioritise macroeconomic stability over public spending. In this study, we examine the impact of IMF interventions on neonatal mortality, addressing concerns about existing analyzes with a novel statistical approach.
Topic:
Political Economy, History, Sustainable Development Goals, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Fixing Ghana’s Non-Existent Adult Social Care System

Author:
Sarpong Aseidu and Adjei Boakye
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Following Ghana’s announcement that an Internaonal Monetary Fund (IMF) program was being sought to help the country go through the current economic downturn, a domesc debt exchange program (DDEP) was announced. As the DDEP progressed it became obvious that many old-age pensioners with bond investments were going to be adversely affected. This led to pickeng by some of those affected at the Ministry of Finance. Many who joined were of the view that should their funds be included, their health will be adversely affected. Though the full details of Ghana’s program with the IMF would not be known for a while, it is accepted that it will aim to address the current macroeconomic imbalances and aempt to promote sustainable economic growth. This will require the implementaon of measures that ensure fiscal and monetary reforms and prudent debt management. Such reforms either reduce subsidies or increase taxes which invariably increase the cost of living. This disproporonately affects people on a fixed income such as the elderly. In a country like Ghana where there isn’t a social safety net for the elderly, and with the cost of chronic disease medicines on the rise this could have an impact on the quality-adjusted health years (QALYs) of this segment of our population.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Aging, Public Health, IMF, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

16. IMF Social Spending Floors: A fig leaf for austerity?

Author:
Alexandros Kentikelenis and Thomas Stubbs
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund has said that it protects spending on education, health and social protection from cuts in its loan programmes through social spending floors. These measures are a welcome step forward, but are they effective? Analysis of all 17 IMF loan programmes (Extended Credit Facilities, or ECFs, and Extended Fund Facilities, or EFFs) for low- and middle-income countries during the first two years of the pandemic shows that these floors are deeply inadequate, inconsistent, opaque and failing. They are little more than a fig leaf for harmful austerity, which is driving inequality, poverty and suffering.
Topic:
Finance, Austerity, IMF, and Social Spending
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Life or Debt: The Stranglehold of Neocolonialism and Africa’s Search for Alternatives

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 63 explores the origins of the debt crisis in Africa, exposing the Western financial chokehold as its source and exploring what alternatives can be built.
Topic:
Debt, IMF, Sovereign Debt, and Neocolonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

18. How the International Monetary Fund Is Squeezing Pakistan

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
To understand the unprecedented contraction of Pakistan’s economy, causing the poor to become significantly poorer, greater scrutiny of how IMF policies undermine economic independence is urgently needed.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Economy, and IMF
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South America

19. Clear and president danger: Democracy and the constitution in Tunisia

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The new constitution that Tunisia will soon put to a referendum is a fundamental departure from the democratic model the country established after 2011. The process of drafting the constitution excluded any significant political participation or public debate. The new constitution would create an unaccountable presidency and leave other branches of the state without any power. Tunisia’s president has failed to address the country’s serious economic problems. An agreement with the International Monetary Fund will only provide a short-term solution to these problems. European policymakers should make clear that they do not see the constitution as genuinely democratic, while continuing to support Tunisia economically.
Topic:
Democracy, Constitution, Economy, Referendum, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

20. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:
Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus