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311. Southeast Asian democracy: Democratic regression or autocratic hardening?

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In line with a global trend, Southeast Asia faces an overall decline in levels of democracy, raising the question of whether democratic progress in the region has reached its limits. Most member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have not seen a “wave of democratization” after a long period of authoritarianism and suppression. Instead, the region has been characterized by remarkably resilient “flawed” democracies and relatively stable autocratic regimes, in some cases in spite of strong economic growth and social development. Democracy, or rather autocracy with some democratic elements, has been ebbing and flowing. Most Southeast Asian flawed democracies and autocracies alike are engaged in the politics of hedging, seeking cooperation with multiple partners. These include authoritarian China, which is not interested in the political systems of the countries it deals with, but also the US, the EU and Japan. Pragmatism is inherent in the way ASEAN polities are managed. As long as living conditions improve or at least remain stable, there is little appetite for Western-style democracy that places participatory politics and human rights at the centre of societal development.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

312. Leadership successions in Central Asia: Elite pacts, dynasties and revolutions

Author:
Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Despite their shared communist past, similarities in political systems, and record of “authoritarian learning” from one another, there is significant diversity in how Central Asian regimes have prepared and undergone leadership successions. Authoritarian states, particularly those led by personalist rulers, face instability during moments of leadership succession. Sometimes the turbulence develops into a full-blown succession crisis characterized by increased elite contestation and popular protests. In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, personalist leaders died in office and the elites chose a successor after negotiations. Still, most regional leaders have sought to pass power gradually to a designated successor, either a familial or non-familial member of the elite, with varying degrees of success. China and Russia have been directly and indirectly involved in the transitions. Moscow has been particularly involved in the short-term de-escalation of succession crises in Kyrgyzstan in 2020 and Kazakhstan in 2022. Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the context of Central Asian successions, which means that future transitions will take place in uncharted territory.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Succession, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

313. Justifications of Repression in Autocracies: An Empirical Analysis of the Maghreb, 2000–2010

Author:
Maria Jousa
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Previous studies on the justification of repression have analysed large-scale protests, about which autocratic officials communicate to avoid backlash effects. However, we know much less about how everyday repression against dissidents and ordinary citizens is communicated and justified under authoritarianism. This paper is the first to systematically investigate how officials in autocracies justify, conceal, or deny different forms of repression employed by different state institutions. It studies the communication of repression in two North African autocracies, drawing on the novel Justifications of Repressive Incidents in Morocco and Tunisia Dataset. The dataset contains 439 events between 2000–2010 and disaggregates the various dimensions of repression and its communication. The empirical analysis shows that the chosen forms of repression influence patterns of communication and justification. Studying the communication of repression helps us better understand the nexus of authoritarian legitimation and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Repression
Political Geography:
Africa and Maghreb

314. The Last Word: Zelensky Wags the Dog, But Slowly

Author:
Zachary Jonathan Jacobson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:
Too often agency (and blame) for the war in Ukraine has been presumed to lie predominantly with the greater powers. Liberals like Anne Applebaum point to President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic and expansionist mission to restore a greater Russia as the precipitating reagent for the crisis, while realists like John Mearsheimer hold the Americans and Europeans responsible for encouraging Ukraine to challenge Russia by seeking membership in NATO.2 In both cases (and both have a case), what has been underplayed is the agency of Ukraine. Taken for granted have been President Volodymyr Zelensky’s artful strategic manipulations to pull a wide community of actors into the regional conflict. His calls for military assistance have resembled what the political scientist Joseph Nye Jr. termed the “soft powers” of persuasion.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

315. África y (Sur) América Latina: Un interregionalismo posible, una alianza improbable

Author:
Francisco Santos Carrillo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El interés de América Latina por África se renovó a comienzos del presente siglo. Las transformaciones globales, el liderazgo de Brasil y la emergencia del regionalismo impulsaron una asociación basada en el diálogo político y la cooperación cuyo objetivo era alcanzar una mayor incidencia sobre el sistema internacional. Sin embargo, el déficit de interdependencia, la debilidad de la institucionalización interregional y la vulnerabilidad de los actores involucrados limitaron el alcance de esta estrategia sin alcanzar su verdadero potencial. En un escenario de incertidumbre que anuncia cambios en el orden mundial y consolida una gobernanza fragmentada, la posibilidad de restablecer esta relación encuentra nuevos incentivos. El artículo analiza los factores catalizadores de este proceso concluyendo que, pese a la oportunidad, su materialización sigue sin contar con las condiciones ni capacidades necesarias para competir geopolíticamente por África.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa, South America, Latin America, and Global South

316. Rethinking EU economic governance: The foundation for an inclusive, green and digital transition

Author:
Francesco De Angelis, Laura Rayner, and Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The European Union is undertaking a comprehensive review of its economic governance framework, to address longstanding criticisms, respond to the impact of COVID-19, and prepare for the challenges posed by the twin green and digital transitions. This Discussion Paper represents the final instalment of an EPC Task Force series that examined the current approach and proposes 10 concrete policy recommendations to make EU economic governance stronger, greener and fairer: Establish a central investment capacity for green and digital investments (including associated social investments) or, alternatively, a golden rule modelled on the governance of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Introduce a single net expenditure rule with a country-specific debt target based on nationally designed expenditure and debt plans to enhance political ownership. Shift to a multiannual supervision and assessment framework and introduce fixed medium-term budgetary plans, with a control account tracking deviations. Reform the sanctions regime to increase proportionality, perceived fairness and political enforceability. Differentiate country-specific supervision based on a clear risk threshold. Introduce ‘National Reform and Investment Plans’ modelled on the National Recovery and Resilience Plans, using a commitments-based approach to operationalise social, fiscal, macroeconomic and structural country-specific recommendations. The plans’ components with strong links to fiscal sustainability should govern the use of Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) flexibilities. Reform the Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) to focus more on the investment composition of national fiscal plans and their link to broader policy objectives. Introduce an opinion on the individual and joint impact of the SCPs on imbalances into the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure to strengthen its link with the SGP. Introduce new processes into the European Semester to assess non-macroeconomic structural risks, such as climate and environmental risks. Build on the success of the temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) programme to create insurance-based mechanisms to support national fiscal policy during downturns.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, European Union, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

317. Parliamentary oversight of the police and the EU accession process – a missing link in the fundamentals-first approach

Author:
Marija Ignjatijevic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
BCSP Researcher Marija Ignjatijević analyses parliamentary oversight of the police in Serbia through the lens of the European integration process and offers recommendations on how to connect it to the negotiating Chapter 24 – Justice, Freedom and Security. Parliamentary oversight of police work represents a critical measure in strengthening the integrity and operational independence of the police. At the same time, these features of the police work are crucial in attaining benchmarks for negotiating Chapter 24 in Serbia’s EU accession process. Along with judiciary, functional and democratically governed police is a prerequisite for the rule of law and other fundamental principles of the EU accession process. Chapter 24 occupies an even more important position within the revised methodology for accession negotiations, since benchmarks in the Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) are a precondition for advancements in all the other clusters. In the Justice, Freedom, and Security field (Chapter 24), the National Assembly plays an important role, foremost by passing and amending the laws through which domestic legislation harmonizes with the regulations of the European Union. The action plan for the Chapter 24 recognizes the role of the National Assembly in achieving benchmarks in this area, most often precisely through changes in the normative framework, i.e. adoption of new or changes to old legal regulations and confirmation of international agreements. However, the role of the National Assembly should be more significant in practice, although this cannot be precisely expressed through technical measures and activities. Defining obligations in the Action Plan might even produce a counter effect and further boost the “tick the box” approach, with the National Assembly captured by the ruling party proficient in simulating its democratic features. The primarily technical action plan cannot bind the National Assembly to effectively oversee the police since the problem is political – there is a lack of political will to control the security sector, the level of democratic culture is low, and the National Assembly is captured by the ruling party. It is, therefore, necessary to explore mechanisms which could make a clear bond between the political criteria which are part of the Fundamentals cluster, such as the functioning democratic institutions, and concrete measures from the action plans, like the ones aimed at strengthening police integrity. Parliamentary oversight of the police is one such connector since it is a vital democratic feature which can boost police integrity and reforms, essential Chapter 24 criteria and prerequisite for other elements of the Fundamentals cluster.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Police
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

318. Pandemic Management – Lessons Learned for a Safer Future

Author:
Milja Dimitrijevic and Rade Panic
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
How the pandemic was managed in Serbia and what are the recommendations for better coping in similar situations in the future, read in the analysis made by BCSP in cooperation with the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists of Serbia. The political and social context in which the pandemic management in Serbia is analysed is marked by a drastic decline in the level of democracy in the country, as well as the strengthening of authoritarian tendencies in the state and society within the process of “capturing the state” by the ruling elite. Unfortunately, Serbia cannot boast of successful results, especially if we take into account the number of deceased citizens, as well as the low level of vaccination compared to European Union countries. The number of deceased citizens in 2021 is as much as 18 percent higher than in the same period in 2020. Statistical data show that in 2021, most people died in Serbia within one year since the end of World War II. These data speak volumes about the results of the crisis management caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia. In this analysis, the focus is on two aspects of pandemic management – the legal aspects of crisis management and the health system’s readiness to deal with the crisis. The analysis was created within the framework of informal cooperation between the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy and the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists of Serbia. The author of the paper on the legal aspects of pandemic management is a lawyer from the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists Milja Dimitrijević, while the part about the capacities of the health system was written by Dr. Rade Panić, the President of the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists. The analysis was created within the survey that was conducted from October 2021 to March 2022. Precisely because of that, some data in the analysis were presented during the writing of the analysis itself, which were relevant during the research and writing the analysis (for example, when writing about the number of infected citizens, or the number of deceased doctors). Finally, the analysis concludes with certain recommendations necessary to improve the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, but possibly some other pandemics in the future.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

319. Constitution and Governance in the UK

Author:
Anand Menon, Jill Rutter, and Sarah Overton
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK constitution and system of governance have recently been subjected to unprecedented strain. Brexit and Covid-19, in conjunction with the governing style adopted by the Johnson administration, have raised profound questions as to whether the norms and conventions that form the basis of the UK’s uncodified constitution are still fit for purpose. These are the issues that are brought together in this report, in which 41 leading scholars assess the impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and the Johnson government on our constitution and system of governance. They discuss whether these arrangements, that have evolved over decades if not centuries, are sufficiently robust and fit for the purpose of governing a diverse and complex UK.
Topic:
Governance, Constitution, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

320. A beginner’s guide to the European Union

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe is launching a new series of ‘beginner’s guides’ – quick, easy guides to the most pressing issues, important institutions and divisive debates in politics and society today. We’re kicking off our series with a guide to the European Union, an institution encompassing around 47,000 staff, seven institutions, over thirty agencies, and a population of almost 450 million. It’s pretty complicated, to say the least. But here we have tried to set out ​in an accessible and straightforward way what the EU is and how it came to be, what its institutions are and what they do, the EU budget, and how the EU makes and enforces laws and regulations. This guide is perfect for those who are learning about European institutions and multilevel governance for the first time during their politics A-level. ​It will also be useful for undergraduate students beginning their studies in law, politics and economics who want to know more about how the EU interacts with their chosen subject area, or seasoned professionals who just want a quick reminder on how member states and European bodies cooperate on key policy areas.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe