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291. Mind the Gap: The Challenges of Assurance for Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Isaac Gazendam and Philip Dawson
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have progressed rapidly since defeating human players at board games. From voice assistants to chatbots, image filters to multi-modal content generation, AI is accelerating individual, commercial, and scientific purposes. The development of increasingly advanced AI systems, each with unique strengths and vulnerabilities, has also made assessing and managing AI risk a daunting prospect. Controls do exist. A variety of stakeholders have made strides in proposing tools and methods to govern AI systems. A common approach applied across these attempts is based on assurance, a collection of approaches and techniques that aim to measure the quality, reliability, and trustworthiness of AI products, services, organizations, or professionals. To some extent, governments are relying on assurance-based approaches to govern AI – from assessments and audit to certification – regardless of whether they have plans to develop AI regulations. Yet the AI assurance ecosystem remains nascent. Frameworks for AI assessments and audits are still evolving, as are supporting standards and accreditation criteria for third-party auditors, reviewers and evaluators. In some cases, it is now possible to apply certain assurance mechanisms to the governance of narrower applications of AI and related organizational processes. However, assurance-based approaches to more advanced systems based on large language models (LLMs) or generative models remain in their infancy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

292. Assessing ESG Risks in National Oil Companies: Transcending ESG Ratings with a Better Understanding of Governance

Author:
Luisa Palacios and Catarina Vidotto Caricati
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
National oil companies (NOCs) produce about half of the world’s oil, hold more than half of its refining capacity, and own the bulk of oil and gas reserves. Most of these companies come from emerging markets and depend heavily on international capital to finance their operations. As financial institutions consider more carefully environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks in their investment decisions, an accurate assessment of the ESG performance of NOCs will be vital. Assessment of ESG risks in NOCs is currently hobbled by both the considerable divergence in ESG ratings for any given company and the complex nature of NOCs’ state ownership structure, which isn’t always readily encapsulated in ESG scores. A clearer picture of these companies’ ESG performance could be useful to investors. This paper, part of the Financing the Energy Transition initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, aims to provide a better understanding of what impacts the ESG performance of NOCs in emerging markets. The authors survey ESG ratings of the largest national oil and gas companies in emerging markets for which such ratings are available, alongside the scores of some of the largest integrated oil and gas companies from advanced countries. The authors find a significant divergence in ESG scores for each single company, which raises questions about their individual stand-alone value in assessing the relative ESG performance of companies in the integrated oil and gas space. An analysis of average NOC ESG ratings—imperfect as they are—against those of international oil companies (IOCs), however, indicates much lower performance of NOCs on governance specifically (i.e., the G in ESG). Ownership by a state creates unique governance challenges—which, in turn, affect environmental and even social efforts—and deserves further exploration to determine which factors within state-owned companies can improve or impair ESG performance, to facilitate a more reliable understanding of NOCs’ ESG risks.
Topic:
Oil, Governance, Fossil Fuels, Energy Transition, and National Oil Companies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

293. Can cities cope?

Author:
Francis Kibirige, John Martin Kewaza, Ronald Makanga Kakumba, Stevenson Ssevume Male, Muhammad Ssenkumba, George William Kayanja, Fred Male, and Pius Tibaingana
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
On 1 July 2020, less than a year before January 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections, Uganda’s minister of local government, acting under the Local Governments Act and with the approval of Parliament, elevated 10 of the 15 earmarked municipal councils across the country to city status (Parliament of the Republic of Uganda, 1997, 2020). City status, equal in stature to district local government status, is the highest level that local government units can attain under the current law and is synonymous with near-autonomy, including significant political influence and more control over resource mobilisation and use. Residents in the newly elevated city environs celebrated this administrative milestone amid surging expectations of immediate upgrades of public-services infrastructure and jobs. But the respective administrations awoke to the realities of over-stretched, outdated services infrastructure, and inadequate funding incapable of meeting the heightened level of demand. Can these new cities fulfil their mandate – even in the face of COVID-19-related impacts on the economy and personal living conditions – and cope with soaring public expectations? Evidence from the 2022 Afrobarometer survey suggests that it will not be easy, as the public mood, engagement with elected local leaders, and public service-delivery ratings are on the decline while mistrust, perceptions of official corruption, and resentment toward paying taxes are on the rise.
Topic:
Education, Health, Governance, Leadership, Institutions, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

294. Taxation for development: The impact of the Ebola epidemic on citizen support across West Africa

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez and Shaun Da Costa
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
We explore the impact of the Ebola epidemic on attitudes toward taxation for development in West Africa. Utilising representative surveys from before and after the peak of the crisis, we estimate the impact of Ebola using both objective (recorded case rates) and self-reported measures of exposure (knowing a friend/relative who was infected with/died from Ebola). In addition, we consider the indirect impact of Ebola on redistributive preferences through disruption to different domains of life, including school, work, social gatherings, and medical care. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that higher levels of Ebola exposure and disruption are associated with greater levels of support for taxation for development.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Ebola, Tax Systems, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea

295. The Future of Small Modular Reactors: Implications for Nuclear Governance

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Alvin Chew
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are classified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as advanced reactors that produce electricity of up to 300MW. An SMR is a fraction of the size of a conventional nuclear power reactor and will produce carbon-free electricity. The Asia-Pacific region has seen renewed interest in nuclear power. Northeast Asian countries are involved in business and technological investments in developing SMR projects while Southeast Asian countries, as possible commercial users, are exploring SMRs as a future clean energy source. The development of SMR technology offers an alternative source of clean energy for Southeast Asian countries where energy demand continues to grow rapidly. However, in preparation for future SMR deployment, it is worthwhile to review ongoing efforts to enhance nuclear governance frameworks. Key challenges to the introduction of SMRs revolve around regulatory frameworks, operation and maintenance, spent fuel management, and the 3S (Safety, Security, Safeguards) of nuclear governance among others. This NTS Insight provides an overview of SMR projects in Northeast Asia and recent developments in Southeast Asia. It examines the critical roles of global nuclear safety and security regimes, national regulatory bodies, and nuclear vendors in ensuring a more robust nuclear governance that incorporates the 3S concept associated with advanced SMRs.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Asia-Pacific

296. Political Change in China and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party:

Author:
Shan Huang and Thaís Jesinski Batista
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
Shan Huang was the keynote speaker at the XXX China Analysis Group Meeting, where he shared insights on the outcome of the last National Congress of the CCP. The National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a meeting that takes place every five years to nominate party leaders, discuss changes to the CCP’s constitution, and establish a common political agenda. The National Congress also appoints the General Secretary of the CCP, a position currently held by President Xi Jinping, and approves the membership of the Party Central Committee. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was held in October 2022. In his dialogue with former Brazilian Ambassador to China Marcos Caramuru, Huang analyzed the continuities and changes in Chinese politics after the Party Congress, as well as the prospects for governance, the economy and foreign relations in Xi Jinping’s new mandate.
Topic:
International Relations, Governance, Economy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Dialogue, and Political Change
Political Geography:
China and Asia

297. AI-Related Risk: The Merits of an ESG-Based Approach to Oversight

Author:
Mardi Witzel and Niraj Bhargava
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has been found to generate value for many firms; however, it also has unintended and undesirable consequences. The reality of AI-related risk has led to the development of AI governance frameworks and calls for greater oversight of the use of AI. The merits of an ESG (environmental, social, governance)-based approach to oversight of AI-related risk are considered in this paper, with a focus on the current trajectory of international sustainability standards development. Despite their differences, AI governance and ESG reporting both seek to address risk in the broadest sense, with proactive and transparent approaches to its management and mitigation. A preliminary set of recommendations for incorporating material AI-related risk into ESG reporting, covering both general or context-setting disclosures and industry-specific disclosures, is provided.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

298. Clearing the Fog: The Grey Zones of Space Governance

Author:
Jessica West and Jordan Miller
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Building on earlier research published by CIGI on the space-cyber nexus, the authors find that there is not one “grey zone” in space governance, but a cluster of nebulous governance challenges that are set to grow as our use of outer space not only expands but evolves in unexpected ways. The ultimate challenge, then, is to colour in governance frameworks so that less grey — less ambiguity — remains. In this paper, the authors peel back the layers of opacity that shroud the grey zone to reveal some of these unsettled governance issues that give rise to it, expand its scope and result in hidden harms. The analysis flows from the military concept of grey zone tactics to an identification of three entangled governance challenges. Stronger governance measures are needed, and the paper concludes by outlining opportunities for providing some colour in the grey zones of space governance by clarifying the parameters and rules of peaceful uses of outer space, making space activities and their potential harms more visible, and pursuing cross-domain governance discussions.
Topic:
Governance, Gray Zone, and Space Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Space

299. Hybrid Maritime Security Governance and Limited Statehood in the Gulf of Guinea: A Nigerian Case Study

Author:
Okechukwu Iheduru
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This article attempts to expand the scope of inquiry into “the market for force” as an important area of study in international relations by focusing on the privatization of aspects of maritime security governance in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) in West Africa and sets out to fill a persistent gap in the study of the privatization of maritime security as part of the normative shift in the global political economy that permits non-state actors to play prominent roles in security provision, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) in West Africa. Extant studies erroneously attribute the persistence and escalation of piracy incidents in the subregion to corruption, weak law enforcement, and grievances over high levels of poverty and unsustainable livelihoods that push coastal community members towards maritime criminality. While providing invaluable insights into contemporary piracy and the justification for a hybrid maritime security governance strategy and the transformations in international maritime law, these studies merely analyze the symptoms, rather than a theorization of the paradox that piracy and other maritime crime incidents have escalated at the same time that many GoG states have substantially modernized and, in principle, improved the anti-piracy capacity of national navies.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Piracy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Gulf of Guinea

300. Analysis of the Implementation of Auditor General's Recommendations in Local Governments to Enhance Accountability

Author:
David Andrew Omona, Isaac Katono, Jeremy Waiswa, Maurice Olobo, Alfred Wonyaka, and Simon Peter Mukisa
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This research paper presents the findings of the study on the status of implementation of the Auditor General’s (AG’s) recommendations in Local Governments (LGs) in Uganda. In implementing their mandates, local governments are expected to ensure compliance with existing laws and guidelines. As such, the Local Governments, through the National Performance Assessments conducted by the Office of the Prime Minister, are assessed on their level of compliance and accountability. The findings noted that contrary to the other requirements beyond the timely submission of information to the Permanent Secretary/ Secretary to the Treasury, the status of implementation of the Internal Auditor General and the Auditor General’s findings from the previous financial years remains a challenge for most Local Governments. It is on this basis that this study was conceptualised. The main objective of the study was to analyse the level of implementation of the Auditor General’s recommendations in local governments to enhance accountability. Specifically, the study sought to: (a) Establish the status of implementation of the Auditor General’s recommendations in selected districts, (b) Establish the status of Action on Parliament’s resolutions on District Local Governments (DLGs), Auditor General’s recommendations, (c) Examine challenges that affect the implementations of the Auditor General’s recommendations at District Local Governments and Parliament levels and (d) Make proposals to improve on the level of implementation and enforcement of the Auditor General’s recommendations. The study has important implications for promoting transparency, accountability, and good governance in local governments in Uganda. The methodology used in the study was generally qualitative in nature. Districts, Ministries Departments and Agencies were selected using maximum variation sampling, and the persons therein were selected using a purposive sampling strategy. Data was collected using document analysis, interviews, and focus group discussions with people at the entities under study. The data collected was analysed through examination, transcription, editing, and analysis of the qualitative data obtained from the field and facilitated by Atlas ti. Software and content analysis enabled a deeper exploration of the themes and narratives emerging from these qualitative data sources. In addition, the study was limited to 16 districts, including Amuria, Amuru, Arua, Gulu, Hoima, Kabarole, Kabale, Kaliro, Lira, Luwero, Mbarara, Moroto, Mukono, Sheema, Tororo, Wakiso, and select Ministries Departments and Agencies.
Topic:
Governance, Accountability, Transparency, Compliance, Local Government, and Implementation
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa