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161. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Antarctic Geopolitics Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author:
Luiz Octavio Gaviao and Michael Bilac Barbosa de Oliveira
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of the Ukrainian War on the geopolitics of Antarctica. Beyond the borders of the countries involved, the most immediate and noticeable impact of a conflict of this nature is evident in the economic environment. However, international relations are tested or shaken, exerting pressure on treaties and cooperation agreements between countries, through the reappearance of past political issues. In 1959, the Antarctic Treaty sought to protect the continent from territorial pressures capable of affecting its natural balance, but this type of conflict compromises international cooperation and brings to light old interests in resource exploration in that region. This complex system, composed of cause and effect forces that involve the interests of the different countries involved in Antarctic geopolitics, was quantitatively modeled by cognitive maps, which explore artificial intelligence concepts to evaluate the behavior of these forces. The results indicated trends in relation to 12 driving forces selected from the literature and evaluated by experts from the Brazilian Antarctic Program, allowing the evaluation of the dynamics of the system over time.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Antarctica

162. Burkina Faso’s Prolonged Transition: Failed Promises and Governance Shortcomings

Author:
Emmanuel Yeboah
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
July 2024 was expected to mark the end of Burkina Faso's transion back to civilian rule, with a presidenal elecon intended to restore constuonal order aer two years of polical uncertainty. However, as many had ancipated, worsening security situaon, coupled with other challenges would become a pretext for the junta to consolidate its hold on power. On September 29, 2023, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the junta leader, declared that the scheduled elecons in July 2024 were “not a priority,” and that the constuon would be modified, casng doubt on the prospects for a mely democrac transion. On May 25, 2024, the military government stunned many democracy watchers by announcing an extension of their rule unl 2029, following what they termed a "naonal conference." This decision, however, was met with widespread skepcism, as the dialogue was largely boycoed by civil society, polical pares, and other key stakeholders. The announcement dealt a severe blow to hopes for a democrac transion, reinforcing fears that the junta intended to hold onto power indefinitely. Adding to the sense of stagnaon, the junta celebrates its two-year anniversary on September 29, 2024. This study builds upon a previous report to provide a comprehensive update and evaluaon of Burkina Faso's ongoing transion process. It offers a detailed analysis of the challenges faced by the transion, providing crical insights into the effecveness of military governments in addressing governance issues and their impact on the country's stability and development. The study further contributes to the broader discourse on the path to restoring democrac order in Burkina Faso.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Democratic Transitions, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

163. Korea’s Trade Policy Agenda in an Uncertain US Trade Environment

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff and Han-Koo Yeo
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper addresses how South Korea, a mid-sized ally of the United States, can best navigate clearly identifiable risks, crafting a positive and pragmatic international trade policy. Korea is heavily dependent on the United States for its defense. It is clear that US trade policy has recently shifted toward being more self-centered, a policy unlikely to be reversed any time soon. The United States is on the threshold of a presidential election that makes it unpredictable in its trade policy, which may become directly harmful to Korean economic prospects if there is a change in leadership. US trade policies under President Joseph Biden have been primarily aimed at onshoring rather than friendshoring, but they have not been actively hostile or threatening. If there is a second Donald Trump term, Korea might not be excluded from substantially increased tariffs—whether for protection, revenue, or leverage—despite the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). At the same time that Korea is watchful of developments in the United States, it needs to pay attention to its neighbor, China, the world’s largest trading economy, a country that has practiced trade coercion against it. South Korea is the world’s 13th-largest economy. It is a strong proponent and practitioner of free trade. It is one of a group of midsize free market democracies aligned with the United States that, ranked by GDP, includes Japan, Germany, and France (and therefore with others, the European Union), the United Kingdom, Canada, Italy, and Australia. The future of the global trading system that the market-oriented countries wish to enjoy is increasingly dependent on this group of midsize economies and the European Union. Korea has thrived in large part through its open trade policy that has made it the country with the world’s greatest number of free trade agreements (including with both the United States and China, as well as with the European Union). It shares strong economic security interests with the United States: It has its own K-CHIPS Act, which provides substantial subsidies to its semiconductor industry. It invests very substantially in critical minerals and batteries, as does the United States. Korea also collaborates with the United States in the production of vaccines to meet future pandemics.
Topic:
Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Investment, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Steel, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

164. US-South Korea Cyber Cooperation: Towards the Higher-Hanging Fruits

Author:
Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In the past decade, the US and South Korea faced a relatively narrow set of challenges in cyberspace, notably North Korea’s cyber crime facilitating sanctions evasion. In the next decade, however, the two countries will face a more diversified set of challenges with growing North Korean ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China competition. The US and South Korea must develop a joint playbook for responding to scenarios of disruptive cyber operations targeting South Korean public and private sectors and prepare for an even more difficult environment for curbing North Korea’s cyber crime as Russia provides a way out. Over the past two years, the US and South Korea have significantly deepened and broadened cooperation on cyber issues and have expanded cooperation further to trilateral and multilateral settings. The two countries established several regular high-level and working-level dialogues, have issued joint sanctions and threat advisories, and deepened mil-to-mil cooperation. However, 2024 has been a watershed in terms of shifting geopolitical dynamics on and around the Korean peninsula. Cyber threats will become more diversified, and the bilateral relationship will be tested at the seams without a clear joint strategic concept and operational plan.
Topic:
Sanctions, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

165. Implementing Azerbaijan’s New Urban Agenda: The Case for Transformative Policymaking

Author:
Anna Soave
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We live in a time of profound and rapid transformation. Trends and multifaceted challenges that have been gradually evolving in the past decade appear to be converging towards radical changes in the urban realm, driven by global geopolitical shifts, cultural dynamism, uneven socio‑economic progress, the disruption of labor markets reshaped by the digital revolution, and emerging technological and scientific advancements. All these are, to make matters more even complex, topped by the drive to “go green” due to the increasing evidence of our overuse of finite natural resources and the vulnerability of our ecosystem to climate crisis, and thus to our own wellbeing. Azerbaijan’s comprehensive “Strategic Road Maps,” approved in 2016, set the basis for the country’s aspirations towards the sustainability and competitiveness of its economic structure through the development of the non‑oil sector and its human capital. The more recent policy and reform framework, titled “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio‑Economic Development,” which was endorsed in 2021, spells out clean‑cut priorities for the country aimed at stimulating the growth of its economy, fostering a dynamic, inclusive, and socially‑just society, promoting the balanced development of the regions, encouraging innovation and creativity, guiding the return of internally displaced people (IDPs) to their areas of origin in the liberated territories, and promoting decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Geopolitics, Urban, Cities, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

166. Small States and the Multilateral System: Transforming Global Governance for a Better Future

Author:
Adam Lupel, Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit, and Joel Ng
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Small states play a critical role in upholding and advancing multilateralism and international law in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and global challenges. Representing the majority of UN member states, these countries broadly agree on the need to uphold international law, support multilateral cooperation and the institutions of global order, and adhere to the “purposes and principles” of the UN Charter. This paper explores why small states remain committed to the multilateral system, emphasizing that their limited military and economic power makes rules-based international cooperation essential for their security and development. Small states have played an active role in championing international law, serving as agents of international peace and security, protecting and managing shared resources, and bringing issues related to emerging technologies to the forefront of international diplomacy. The paper also examines some of the tools small states have used to craft multilateral responses to frontier issues, including by leveraging their expertise in specific areas, chairing multilateral negotiations, building coalitions to advance their interests, and serving as impartial mediators. Looking to the future, the paper concludes that small states can and should be catalysts for change, offering a path forward amid geopolitical tensions between larger states. Following the adoption of the Pact for the Future in September 2024, small states can consider several priorities to help implement the pact and build a stronger multilateral system for the benefit of all: Reinforce the fundamental principles of international cooperation: Small states should lead and mobilize all member states in recommitting to their obligations under the UN Charter. Expand and strengthen diverse cross-regional coalitions for global governance: Small states should continue to leverage UN processes to widen the group of countries invested in overcoming polarization. Promote information sharing and capacity building: Small states that have the means and subject-matter expertise should redouble their efforts to pool resources and knowledge to build up other states’ capacities. Revamp working methods: Small states should work together to put forward their views on how to revamp and update the working methods of different UN organs. Update the peace and security toolbox: Small states need to be involved in updating the UN’s peace and security toolbox in areas such as mediation, preventive diplomacy, and peacebuilding. Prioritize inclusiveness on new and emerging technologies: If harnessed properly, digitalization and new and emerging technologies could help small states grow their influence. Embed future thinking: Small states should inject their views into the gamut of “forward-looking” and “long-term” conversations taking place at the UN.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. The United Nations and Human Rights in North Korea

Author:
Raymond Ha
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Despite the emergence of geopolitical trends that threaten global stability, the United Nations is—and will remain—indispensable for the promotion of human rights in North Korea. Domestic political changes in South Korea and the United States have set the stage for robust multilateral coordination on North Korean human rights, including at the United Nations. The Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea remains the focal point of relevant activity within the United Nations, as the Seoul office of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights continues its work in the field. Moreover, the Security Council held a public discussion on North Korean human rights in August 2023 after a six-year hiatus, as South Korea, the United States, and other like-minded countries emphasized the connection between human rights and security issues. It will be vital to keep human rights at the forefront as North Korea reengages with the world following its COVID-19 lockdown. Finally, North Korea’s fourth cycle of the Universal Periodic Review in November 2024 will not only enable states and civil society organizations to spotlight Pyongyang’s human rights record, but also reveal opportunities for engagement going forward.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

168. Europe and Russia on the Balkan Front. Geopolitics and Diplomacy in the EU’s Backyard

Author:
Giorgio Fruscione
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has taken its toll on the stability of the Balkans by reshuffling regional geopolitics and reviving diplomatic competition between the West and Russia. Since the summer of 2022, growing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have raised concerns about a possible Russian involvement and pushed the European Union to react promptly. By brokering a new normalisation agreement, the West seeks to prevent new hotbeds in Europe and push Russia one step back from the Balkans. Meanwhile, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has given new momentum to the integration process of candidate states, making EU membership a tangible goal rather than an unattainable dream. Will the EU be able to stabilise the Balkans? Will Russia continue to exert its influence in the region? Are Belgrade and Pristina on the eve of a new phase in the normalisation process?
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

169. Global trends in countries‘ perceptions of the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Drawing on global media reports, we conduct a sentiment analysis of the image of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the evolution of its image over time. Our main finding is that perceptions of the initiative deteriorated significantly in many geographies from 2017 to 2022. The notable exception is in sub-Saharan Africa where the BRI’s image remains positive, even if slightly less so than in the past. This is notwithstanding increases in debt levels with China, much of which now face potential restructuring. Furthermore, we find significant inter- and intra-regional differences in the average sentiment towards China’s landmark project, as well as a much worse image of the initiative in countries which, until today, are not part of the BRI. Finally, we focus on the European Union, Africa and China’s immediate neighbourhood to better understand the complexities behind the perceived benefits and challenges associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

170. West Vs. Non-West: A New Cold War?

Author:
Greg Simons
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
There is a noticeable and growing evolution of the global geopolitical balance of power and influence in the 21st century’s system of international relations. The current hegemon, the unipolar United States, and the political system of Western liberalism that supports it, is under great strain and is in a state of relative decline. The challenger is a non-Western-centric multipolar order, which consists of a wide variety of countries spanning the globe, including what is referred to as the Global South. This ‘crisis’ of the Western order has prompted a tangible and informational response from the U.S. and its system, to defend their privileged hegemony and to deter the rise of alternative systems of power and influence in international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Cold War, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Global Focus