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51. Quest for Growth and Resilience in the Face of Mounting Economic Headwinds

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has experienced weakening macroeconomic conditions in the past 10 years, with falling real GDP and per capita GDP growth, a depreciating kwacha and rising inflation… Against this backdrop, the 2021 National Budget is themed: “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable”. Many sub-functional big winners are expected in 2021 in terms of allocation increases (e.g. FISP, Voter Registration and Social Cash Transfer), and some critical losers are also expected, particularly Empowerment Funds.
Topic:
Budget, GDP, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

52. Life and Death During the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Alejandra Gonzales Rocabado
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic (11 March to 11 September 2020) for 124 countries. Changes in quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 15 million life years were lost during the first six months of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.006% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least three times more life years are lost every six months due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first six months of the pandemic set us back about 14 hours in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered more than a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over half a year, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. Globally, the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs were lost. GDP is estimated to have been set back about three years, poverty about five years, and the tourism industry about 20 years. The already large inequalities in access to quality education have been further widened, leaving hundreds of millions of disadvantaged children farther behind. Even countries that have managed the pandemic relatively well are suffering large economic contractions due to the negative spill-over effects from other countries. We still have a long way to go before this pandemic is over, and we urgently need to course-correct in order not to cause even more harm than has already been done. The paper provides a series of recommendations on what needs to be done to minimize total harm.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Mobility, Mortality, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

53. Born Out of Necessity: A Debt Standstill for COVID-19

Author:
Patrick Bolton, Lee Buchheit, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Mitu Gulati, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Ugo Panizza, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Rich and poor countries alike are facing an unprecedented economic crisis as they attempt to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A downturn of this magnitude can cause tremendous long-term damage, with critical economic linkages between employees, businesses, and banks at risk of disappearing forever. Scores of firms will close permanently unless urgent action is taken. The threat is even more significant for emerging economies, where the economic costs of social distancing are likely to be higher, and where vulnerable small and medium sized enterprises with low cash reserves account for a much larger share of the economy than in rich countries, which can rely on extensive social and economic safety nets. Poor countries, moreover, have far more precarious health-care systems. The funds required to support vulnerable workers and businesses, and to care for COVID-19 patients, could be as high as 10% of their GDP. As a comparison, in the US the rescue measures passed in the last month alone account for at least 10% of GDP, and are likely to increase even more. A number of European countries have commited loans, equity injections and guarantees up to 35% of GDP. The COVID-19 crisis has led to a sudden collapse in capital flows to emerging and developing countries. According to estimates by the Institute of International Finance, non-resident portfolio outflows from emerging market countries amounted to nearly $100 billion over a period of 45 days starting in late February 2020. For comparison, in the three months that followed the explosion of the 2008 global financial crisis, outflows were less than $20 billion.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, GDP, Business, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus