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51. Potential Renewable Hydrogen from Curtailed Electricity for ASEAN’s Clean Energy: Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin, Jun Arima, and Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The power generation mix of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is dominated by fossil fuels, which accounted for almost 80% in 2017 and are expected to account for 82% in 2050 if the region does not transition to cleaner energy systems. Solar and wind power is the most abundant energy resource but contributes negligibly to the power mix. Scalable electricity production from wind and solar energy faces tremendous challenges due to system integration practices in ASEAN. Investors in solar or wind farms face high risks from electricity curtailment if surplus electricity is not used. Technologies for battery storage (lithium-ion batteries) have been developed to handle surplus electricity production from wind and solar energy but they remain costly. Hydrogen produced from electrolysis using surplus electricity, however, has numerous advantages that complement battery storage, as hydrogen can be stored as liquid gas, which is suitable for many uses and easy to transport. Employing the policy scenario analysis of the energy outlook modelling results, this paper examines the potential scalability of renewable hydrogen production from curtailed electricity in scenarios of high share of variable renewable energy in the power generation mix. The study intensively reviewed potential cost reduction of hydrogen production around the world and its implications for changing the energy landscape. The study found many social and environmental benefits as hydrogen can help increase the share of renewables in decarbonising emissions in ASEAN.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
ASEAN

52. Energy Futures: Oil And The Oil Industry

Author:
Richard A. Sears
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Abundant affordable energy has built the world in which we live today. Machines and the chemical energy that drives them have made it possible for a small percentage of the population to produce enough food for many of us to be scientists, engineers, artists, and authors. We are only able to pursue our diverse interests because available energy multiplies human effort many times over. With all the good that has come with access to energy resources extracted from the Earth, there is also an environmental price, which impacts our land, water, and air. My intent here is not to debate the merits of our current energy system; it is the reality in which we exist. Humans and human society have become dependent on energy in so many ways that we cannot simply undo what we have and flip overnight to alternatives that we believe preserve the benefits without the costs. The scale of our global energy use is enormous, and the infrastructure we have built to deliver that energy and convert it to useful work has been developed over more than a century. It will realistically take several decades for energy alternatives to grow to replace the major sources of primary energy that we utilize today; similarly, it will take many decades to rebuild our energy infrastructure to efficiently utilize new sources of primary energy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. From Climate Change Awareness to Climate Crisis Action

Author:
Jan Eichhorn, Luuk Molthof, and Sascha Nicke
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This report charts attitudes on the existence, causes, and impact of climate change in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also examines public attitudes to a series of policies that the EU and national governments could harness to reduce the damage inflicted by human-made emissions. Although a clear majority of European and United States respondents are aware that the climate is warming, and that it is likely to have negative impacts for humankind, this report finds there is confusion about the scientific consensus on climate change. This, the report argues, has created a gap between public awareness and climate science, leaving the public underestimating the urgency of the crisis, and failing to appreciate the scale of the action required.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Europe

54. Electricity Oversupply: Maximizing Zero-Carbon Power to Accelerate the Transition from Fossil Fuels

Author:
Melissa Lott and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Decarbonizing and growing the power sector are critical steps to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-efficient and timely manner. As more renewable energy enters the market, the higher penetration of solar and wind sources means periods of temporary overgeneration are likely to increase. There are signs that renewable electricity oversupply is now actively being sought in order to create opportunities to decarbonize other sectors or build export markets for products derived from that additional energy. This commentary discusses the role of electricity in deep decarbonization efforts, and how zero-carbon oversupplies might be deployed. Policy makers must assess what public benefits to prioritize under this recent phenomenon. This commentary examines four countries—Germany, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the United States—where excess generation is providing novel opportunities. The case of New Zealand is particularly illustrative of the choices countries and policy makers are facing. There, extra zero-carbon supply has suddenly appeared due to the closure of an aluminum smelter. The reduced load means this new abundance could be used to: expand the transmission infrastructure to feed electric loads elsewhere in the nation, decarbonize non-power sector applications (e.g., transportation or industry), produce and sell new products with near-zero carbon footprints (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, chemicals, fuels), or operate machines that remove CO2 from the air and oceans.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

55. Sustainable aviation fuel policy in the United States: A pragmatic way forward

Author:
Fred Ghatala
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The aviation sector has been working to decarbonize, but it faces unique challenges since decarbonization options that may work for ground or maritime transport are generally not feasible for air travel. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) present an opportunity to decarbonize the aviation sector, but federal policies that address SAF have largely included SAF as an add-on to existing policies that are meant primarily to address ground transportation. However, due to the unique challenges presented to decarbonization by the aviation sector, the use of SAF should be incentivized through pragmatic, sector-specific federal policies. The new Atlantic Council report by Fred Ghatala, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy in the United States: A Pragmatic Way Forward, provides a set of near and long-term federal policy options that could be implemented in order to encourage the use of SAF. The report contextualizes each policy choice and explains the implications of each option, differentiating between policies that can be implemented in the near-term and policies that require long-term implementation.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

56. A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2019, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center began an effort in partnership with the United States Department of Energy to consider a fresh approach to energy in the Americas that is comprehensive in nature and targeted in its approach. Following a year-long period of engagements alongside six representative stakeholder countries participating, the resulting report: “A New US Energy Strategy for the Western Hemisphere,” was launched in March 2020 and will serve as the launch point for additional work by the Atlantic Council on energy and sustainability issues across the hemisphere.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

57. Transforming the power sector in developing countries: Geopolitics, poverty, and climate change in Bangladesh

Author:
Robert F. Ichford
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Governments across South Asia face many challenges as they seek to improve the lives of the more than 1.8 billion people that live in the region. Increasing geopolitical competition—especially between and among China, Russia, and the United States—is one factor that is affecting progress. This “great power competition,” including over the South China Sea, is intertwined with regional rivalries (e.g., India and Pakistan, India and China, and the United States and Iran) and has important economic, military, technological, and environmental consequences. Energy is a key strategic sector in this competition as China pursues its expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure and trade vision, Russia uses arms sales and nuclear energy to expand its regional presence, and the United States confronts Iran and gears up its free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy and Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy) initiative. This issue brief considers the transformation of the electricity sector in Bangladesh. It is the fourth country analysis in the Atlantic Council’s “Transforming the Power Sector in Developing Countries” series. This issue brief applies to Bangladesh the analytical framework developed in the first report in the series, which presents general challenges and strategic priorities for developing countries in the context of their implementation of electric power policies and reforms following the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

58. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region

Author:
Bina Hussein
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
Topic:
Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

59. Running on empty? A case study of fuel security for civil and military air operations at Darwin airport

Author:
John Coyne, Tony McCormack, and Hal Crichton-Standish
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Most Australians have no idea how quickly they’ll be running on empty if fuel supplies from overseas are cut in a crisis. For decades, the nation has relied on risky, “just in time” deliveries of the fuel necessary for transport systems, industry, policing and individual motoring needs—and even the operations of the Australian Defence Force. This report describes how this situation is so fraught, and the national reserve so small, that during major military exercises and actual operations such as the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, fuel stocks have reached critically low levels.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Fossil Fuels, and Aviation
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

60. Evaluating the impact of fossil fuel vehicles exit on the oil demand in China

Author:
Ziru Feng, Tian Cai, Kangli Xiang, Chenxi Xiang, and Lei Hou
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China's vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles under the scenarios of slow, medium, and rapid substitution. The main contribution of this paper is making a more detailed estimation on the main parameters such as the saturation level and growth rate of the vehicle ownership by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast the future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: ①The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. ②Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China's auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces in fuel demand due to the economic and demographic factors, with the expected fuel demand of 76.76, 64.91 and 63.95Mt respectively. ③Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 653, 615 and 578 Mt respectively under the scenarios of slow, medium and fast substitution. Even under the scenario of slow substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will be 94 Mt, accounting for 26.3% of China's net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this study provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America