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41. Refining the Global Goal on Adaptation ahead of COP28

Author:
Anna Cabre, Olivia Fielding, and Michael Weisberg
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
As the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) approaches, it is increasingly crucial to understand and develop clear actions for not only mitigation but also adaptation. While mitigation has the clear numerical target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, adaptation is a complex concept that cannot be captured in a single figure. Ahead of COP28, there is a need for conceptual clarity as to what exactly the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) aims to achieve and how it can be globally applicable when adaptation is so often locally implemented. One way to clarify the GGA is to adopt well-being as the ultimate outcome toward which countries should be working. Well-being is a state where one can pursue one’s goals and thrive. This requires having adequate physical health, water, food, and a healthy environment, even as the impacts of climate change worsen. Adaptation actions that further this goal should be assessed by their effects on present and future human and environmental well-being. Whenever possible, these actions should be both transboundary, reaching across national borders and administrative or jurisdictional boundaries, and transformational, addressing the systemic root causes of climate impacts and working toward a more stable, flexible, and equitable future. This policy paper lays out the various climate risks that affect each of the four pillars of the GGA: human health, water security, food security, and biodiversity. It then details adaptation actions that can be taken in response to these risks, as well as indicators for improvement. While each step of the adaptation policy cycle should be robust and well-funded, these four pillars are the areas where progress is most crucial to achieving the GGA. When crafting a framework for transformational adaptation in these four areas, negotiators and technical experts can draw on existing, agreed-upon frameworks and indicators that point the world toward the goal of well-being for people and planet.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Water, Food Security, Adaptation, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Employment effects of foreign agricultural investments – expectations unfulfilled?

Author:
Helle Munk Ravnborg, Bernard Bashaasha, Rikke Broegaard, Michael Byaruhanga, Evelyne Lazaro, Festo Maro, Khamaldin Mutabazi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the hike in food prices in 2007-2008, national as well as international policy attention has been strongly focused on promoting foreign agricultural investments, e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa. While in some cases such a focus may be justified, policies which favour foreign investments may work to the detriment of locally-owned family farms which represent a strong – and in many cases stronger – source of rural employment generation than foreign agricultural investments.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Employment, Food Security, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

43. Ecological Threat Report 2023

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This is the fourth edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which analyses ecological threats in 221 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the report covers 3,594 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the world's population. The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity, water risk, natural disasters, and demographic pressure. The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats at the national, subnational, and city level, while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace. Comparing ecological threats against societal resilience enables IEP to identify the global regions, countries, and subnational areas most at risk of an ecological disaster, both now and into the future. The key finding from the 2023 ETR is that without concerted international action, current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen, thereby intensifying a range of social issues, such as malnutrition and forced migration. Current conflicts will escalate and multiply as a result, creating further global insecurity. IEP estimates that by 2050, 2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion in 2023, with 1.1 billion of these people living in countries with low societal resilience.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Water, Food Security, Peace, Ecology, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Green Recovery and Balancing Between Paradoxes: The Egyptian Holistic Approach to Promote Food Security and Tackle Related Challenges

Author:
Aya Badr
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This policy paper discusses the challenges to food security in Egypt, including climate change, water scarcity, global instability, and disruptions to supply chains. The paper argues that a holistic developmental approach is needed to promote food security as part of human development and social justice. The green recovery approach is suggested as a way to achieve inclusive and sustainable development, protect the environment, and tackle climate change. The paper also examines the gap between strategic objectives and the situation on the ground, and proposes alternative solutions such as promoting self-sufficiency, food sovereignty, rural development, and sustainable agricultural policies under the umbrella of green recovery policies, funds, and investments. The paper highlights the importance of addressing food insecurity in Egypt, as the country heavily relies on food imports, a situation that has worsened since the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Water, Food Security, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

45. Towards a Renewed Euro-Mediterranean Cooperation on Sustainable Agri-Food Systems for Food Security in the Region

Author:
Marko Lovec, Desirée A.L Quagliarotti, Tommaso Emiliani, and Ines Gasmi
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This joint Policy Study discusses the vulnerabilities of the Mediterranean agri-food system exposed by the food and energy price spikes caused by the war in Ukraine and the implications for human security in the region. The Middle East and North African (MENA) region, as the world’s largest food importer, faces challenges on both the demand and supply sides, including population growth, urbanisation, dietary changes, macroeconomic constraints, scarcity of natural resources, and climate change impacts. Rural populations and farmers often experience food insecurity, while European countries are not immune to high food prices and their socioeconomic consequences. Existing policies focused on international trade and production have failed to address the complex interplay between food, environment, and society. The concept of food sovereignty provides valuable insights for developing context-specific strategies to foster resilient agricultural and food systems. The proposed ‘Euro-Mediterranean blueprint for sustainable agricultural and food systems‘ outlines six pillars, including agroecological transition, support for traditional agricultural systems, initiatives targeting the agri-food chain, promotion of blue foods strategy, participatory policy-making, and macroregional cooperation. The authors emphasise the need for enhanced regional cooperation in agriculture, particularly in the context of changing geopolitics and the disruptive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They suggest various avenues for collaboration, such as involving Southern Mediterranean countries in European Union initiatives, increasing climate funding for agriculture and food, reengaging in regional trade negotiations, fostering partnerships in research and innovation, and promoting unifying narratives. The limitations of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in driving transformative strategies in the Euro-Mediterranean region are discussed in the study, along with recommendations for targeted CAP payments aligned with climate and biodiversity objectives, conditionalities on trade, and support for sustainable practices. The role of climate and digital agendas in agriculture is highlighted, particularly the challenges and compromises associated with implementing Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) in the region. The authors emphasise the need for context-driven, climate-smart ideas and solutions, improved water management, policy coordination, strengthened institutions, enhanced access to funding, and increased national investments in climate-friendly agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean

46. Unexploded Ordnance Threatens Food Security in Syria

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination seriously hinders Syria’s recovery from civil war. The problem not only affects immediate physical safety but also undermines the nation's food security. Omnipresent UXO denies access to arable land, water sources, and infrastructure, exacerbating aid dependence. Additionally, UXO intensifies land degradation by contributing to the overcultivation of uncontaminated lands, leading to intensive farming practices that can degrade soil and deplete its nutrients. Overcultivation also depletes water resources and leads to soil erosion. All these factors further stress Syria’s already weakened food production capabilities.
Topic:
Food Security, Syrian War, Farming, and Unexploded Ordnance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

47. Crisis alimentarias en el norte de África

Author:
Laurence Thieux
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La guerra en Ucrania, sumándose a las crisis anteriores, ha tenido un fuerte impacto sobre los países de Norte de África dependientes de los mercados mundiales para alimentar a su población. La inflación y la perturbación de las cadenas de suministro han agudizado las crisis económicas y sociales y los riesgos de inseguridad alimentaria de las franjas más vulnerables de la población de esta región incrementando las fracturas territoriales y las desigualdades. Este documento, a cargo de Laurence Thieux, profesora ayudante doctor del Departamento de Relaciones Internacionales e Historia Global de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, trata de arrojar luz sobre las causas estructurales de las crisis de los sistemas alimentarios y agrícolas de algunos países del norte de África (Marruecos, Argelia, Túnez, Libia y Egipto). Se analiza también sus consecuencias y la contestación de unos modelos de desarrollo agrícola cuya sostenibilidad es cada vez más cuestionada por las injusticias sociales que conllevan y el uso desmedido de recursos naturales cada vez más exiguos por el cambio climático.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Food Security, Inequality, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Spain, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa

48. Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq: Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts

Author:
Berghof Foundation
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The negative effects of climate change and the security risks associated with it are beginning to register across Iraq. Over the past decade, the rise in extreme weather events, such as high temperatures, droughts, desertification, flooding, and sand and dust storms, has caused various severe consequences, including water scarcity, loss of economic livelihoods (particularly for those relying on the agricultural sector), climateinduced displacement and migration, and a rise in food insecurity. Library 28 Sept 2023 Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts The negative effects of climate change and the security risks associated with it are beginning to register across Iraq. Over the past decade, the rise in extreme weather events, such as high temperatures, droughts, desertification, flooding, and sand and dust storms, has caused various severe consequences, including water scarcity, loss of economic livelihoods (particularly for those relying on the agricultural sector), climateinduced displacement and migration, and a rise in food insecurity. Download The country’s vulnerability to these impacts has risen due to capacity constraints and a lack of structures and mechanisms that can effectively respond to and mitigate the effects of climate change. The challenges Iraq is currently facing, including those associated with the recent conflict with ISIS, political exclusion, and poor governance, have only been exacerbated by the effects of climate change. This study seeks to delve deeper into the issue of climate change and its links to and effects on conflict dynamics throughout the country. Specifically, it focuses on climate pathways – or the ways in which climate change is contributing to conflict and insecurity – in Makhmur, Al-Rifai and Tal Afar. Overall, the study found that various pathways are present to some degree in the districts, with natural resources, livelihood insecurity, food insecurity, and weak governance the most prominent pathways. In addition, the report gives several recommendation on how to confront the effects on climate change in regards to conflict dynamics in Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

49. The Waterfall’s Shadow in the Mekong Region

Author:
Benjamin Jensen, Daniel F. Runde, and Thomas Bryja
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States and its network of democratic partners and allies increasingly find themselves struggling to safeguard the rule of law, free markets, civil liberties, and human security in countries most at risk from climate change and its impact on water security. A network of authoritarian states led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are using infrastructure investment programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) alongside gray zone campaigns to gain access and influence, often in areas most at risk of further climate shock and water insecurity, particularly in the Mekong region. As a result, continuing to develop water strategies offers a viable means of integrating development and deterrence to address core human security challenges and deny further authoritarian access and influence across the world’s most climate-stressed societies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Climate Change, Development, Water, Food Security, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sustainability, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Asia and Mekong River

50. The Dual Mandate of Food Exporting States: India’s Roles in the Global Food Order

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Criticisms of India’s rice export ban must be balanced with the recognition of its responsibility to ensure food affordability for its constituents. Finding a middle ground that addresses India’s predicament could help to prevent the impending international food price crisis from escalating.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Exports, Affordability, Rice, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India