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Begin New Search Topic Financial Crisis Publication Year within 5 Years

61. Causal Mechanism and Explanation in Social Science

Author:
Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
In the social sciences, the development of a specific social event or structure is often ex- plained by a statistical correlation between an independent variable and a variable assumed to be dependent upon it. This mode of explanation is contested by a methodology of causal reconstruction that operates with the concept of mechanisms. A mechanism is a process in which a set of linked steps leads from initial conditions to an outcome or effect. Mechanisms are general concepts, subjecting individual cases to a general category. Except for the litera- ture dealing specifically with the concept, the term “mechanism” is often used without defi- nition of its substantive content; there is no agreement with respect to the unique or plural character of the initial conditions, nor to the structure of the causal path leading to a specific outcome. Nevertheless, mechanisms have played a crucial role in detailed causal analysis of complex historical events, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and German unification of 1989.
Topic:
Cold War, Nationalism, Financial Crisis, and Unification
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, West Germany, Central Europe, and East Germany

62. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia

63. Lebanon: The 3-Decade Impossible Power Sector Reforms

Author:
Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Lebanon defaulted on its debt for the first time in the country’s history. Many factors have contributed to this economic and fiscal crisis, but at the heart of them is the electricity sector, accountable for more than $39.5 billion, equivalent to 43 percent of the public debt, and embodying the core structural issues of Lebanon; a non-functioning confessional system built on the foundation of vested interests.
Topic:
Debt, Infrastructure, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

64. Will Hezbollah Survive Lebanon's Crisis?

Author:
Marina Calculli
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s sovereign default comes at a heavy price for Hezbollah. This is not simply because of Hezbollah’s powerful role within the government that failed to repay a $1.2 bn bond on 10 March 2020. This is mainly because Hezbollah’s rivals are likely to use the current financial crisis to impose an external authority over Lebanon and increase pressure on the ‘Party of God’ to disband its armed wing.
Topic:
Security, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

65. Beyond Coronabonds: A New Constituent for Europe

Author:
Nicoletta Pirozzi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Every era has its symbols. In 1984, Mitterrand and Kohl held hands on the battlefield in Verdun, coming to symbolise the importance of peace in the pursuit of European integration. Today, in times of COVID-19, the so-called “Coronabonds” could have emerged as the symbol of a new Europe, one that is ready and able to do what it takes to collectively overcome the present crisis. Yet, what some member states consider an indispensable emblem of European solidarity, namely debt mutualisation to face an unprecedented symmetric crisis brought about by COVID-19, is regarded by others as an ultimate excuse for moral hazard. As a result, Europe could end up with a politically more digestible European Fund, as proposed by Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton, designed to issue long-term bonds.[1] Or, as outlined by the Eurogroup, a Recovery Fund that is “temporary, targeted and commensurate” to the extraordinary costs of the current crisis, helping to spread them across time.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Governance, Finance, Economy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

66. Assessing Israel Katz’s First Year as Foreign Minister

Author:
Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
In February 2019, Israel Katz was named Israel’s interim foreign minister, and three months later his appointment became permanent. This ended a period of almost four-years without a fulltime foreign minister, during which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) significantly declined. A year into Katz’s term, an assessment can be made as to whether his appointment has strengthened the MFA and left a policy imprint. This, while taking into consideration the turmoil in Israeli politics since early 2019 and the understanding that deeper change requires a ministerial tenure longer than a year. This article sums up Katz’s first year on the job, based on media reports and information published by the MFA. It examines both intra-ministerial and policy aspects, and concludes that Katz is operating in Netanyahu’s heavy shadow, has failed to address the deep budgetary crisis faced by the MFA, and has focused on developing ties with Gulf States and combatting anti-Semitism.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Financial Crisis, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations

67. International Financial Regulation: Why It Still Falls Short

Author:
William White
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
While recent reforms are welcome in many ways, there are still significant reasons to doubt that the post-crisis tightening of international financial regulation guarantees future financial and economic stability. The most important reason is that the reforms have focused too narrowly on ensuring that an unstable financial sector will not aggravate downturns by restricting the supply of credit. More attention needs to be paid to ensuring that an overly exuberant financial system does not weaken other parts of the economy by encouraging a rapid buildup of debt during upturns. Some combination of time-varying monetary and regulatory policies (a macrofinancial stability framework) will be required to do this. In addition, many of the individual regulatory measures taken to date, both macroprudential and microprudential, have shortcomings. Their coherence as a package has also been questioned.
Topic:
Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Reform, Banks, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. Explaining Turkey’s Current Economic Crisis

Author:
Erinc Yeldan
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financialisation, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

69. This Time Was Different: The Global Safe Asset Shortage and Shadow Banking in Socio-Historical Perspective

Author:
Photis Lysandrou and Anastasia Nesvetailova
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Safe assets and shadow banking are two closely linked phenomena in contemporary finance. The link is loan securitisation: at a time of a global safe asset shortage, it falls on the shadow banking system to help make good that shortage by manufacturing extra quantities of asset backed securities. When these quantities cannot keep up with volume of safe asset demand, the shadow banking system comes under pressure to manufacture the type of complex structured securities that can potentially cause a financial crisis. That potentiality became reality with the great financial crisis of 2007-8. If a further financial crisis of this scale is to be averted, the regulation of the shadow banking system should be informed by an understanding of the contemporary socioeconomic circumstances that continue to cause a global safe asset shortage. This paper attempts to contribute to such an understanding.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Banking, Securitization, and Safe Asset
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:
Sean Hagan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus