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21. Factsheet: Elise Stefanik

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elise Stefanik is a Republican congresswoman from New York. Initially entering politics as a moderate, Stefanik has rebranded herself and become a staunch supporter and defender of President-elect Donald Trump. She has a history of propagating anti-Palestinian narratives, and has supported legislation targeting pro-Palestinian voices. She has also allied with organizations known for promoting Islamophobic and anti-Palestinian views, and has called for defunding entities like UNRWA, labeling it as a “terrorist front.” In 2024, President-elect Trump selected Stefanik to serve as the US Ambassador to the UN.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Republican Party, and Elise Stefanik
Political Geography:
New York, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

22. The Recent Rise of the Far Right and Voters’ Anti-Refugee Attitudes in Europe

Author:
Yoonjung Kim and Nam Seok Kim
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper explores the connection between individuals’ barrier preference toward immigration and refugee policy and how they are linked to voting behavior. We use three different datasets to tackle these two questions. We utilize multi-country survey data with abundant information regarding voters’ subjective attitudes toward immigrants to study the determinants of far-right voting in Europe. Notably, even after controlling for education, income level, or current employment status, which represents the human capital endow-ment of natives, industry-level comparative advantage and disadvantage, and political scale from left to right, we still find that a preference for immigration barriers has strong explanatory power for far-right voting behavior. We find that educational attainment and income level are important in explaining vot-ers’ anti-immigration attitudes, as the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts. On average, voters with higher education and higher income are relatively more open to immigration and aware of their role in the economy. In addition to the cross-country election studies that allow us to study the anti-immigration attitude, we also use election surveys conducted in the Neth-erlands and France to add more details on the role of individual immigration and refugee policy preference in the voting behavior. The election survey on the parliamentary election of the Netherlands provides a special identification approach that is not available in cross-country election surveys. The panel structure of the Dutch survey allows us to observe the voting history of re-spondents in 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2021 parliamentary elections. Using this information, this paper clarifies the characteristics of voters who newly join supporting right-wing populism. In other words, we study determinants of ‘switching’ voting behavior from non-populist parties to right-wing populist parties focusing on the refugee barrier preference. We explore whether atti-tudes towards refugees affect this switching behavior in the politics of the Netherlands. The election survey on French voters covers the most recent presidential election in France. We elaborate on how immigration policy pref-erences of French voters are related with the popularity of right-wing popu-list presidential candidates in France. Considering that non-economic factors contribute to explaining the far-right voting behavior, utilizing other non-economic variables such as individ-uals’ sentiments towards various entities (including the government, legal sys-tem, and the European Parliament), and subjective evaluation of their own health and happiness can also add explanatory power, as numerous previous findings imply. For systematic consideration of these abundant variables in the ESS data, we use LASSO for variable selection. For this exercise, we con-sider two approaches in selecting the optimal penalty term, namely cross-validation (CV) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). It is worth high-lighting that almost all of the immigration barrier preference variables are se-lected when using both CV and BIC for variable selection criteria.
Topic:
Political Economy, Refugees, Far Right, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

23. The Far-Right in the Western Balkans. How the Extreme Right is Threatening Democracy in the Region

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
At the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of the far-right in Europe should no longer be considered as a peripheral phenomenon but rather as a serious sign of the crisis of the liberal post-Cold War order. The growth of far-right voters and the proliferation of far-right parties, movements, and subcultural groups stands for a changed political and ideological landscape, one where the notion of democracy is increasingly and openly contested. “Rechte Bedrohungsallianzen” – “Right-wing threat alliances” as a direct opposition to open society constitute a phenomenon that must not be ignored. This paper looks closer into the most representative far-right groups and organisations in Serbia during the last two decades. Even though the far-right in most Western Balkan countries is not a decisive political factor yet, the boundary separating its political agenda from mainstream political parties is becoming thinner. The internationalization of right-wing extremism has expanded the strategic possibilities of far-right action beyond national political structures thus giving it an international perspective and global meaning. These new international “signatures of the far-right” continue to be a threat to democracy both in the national and regional context in the Western Balkans as well as beyond the region.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Serbia, Balkans, and Western Europe

24. Far Right Holds Chile Hostage

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The ultra-conservative Republican Party won a majority on Chile’s new Constitutional Council, delivering a major blow to President Gabriel Boric’s transformative platform.
Topic:
Elections, Constitution, Far Right, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

25. “The Major Challenge to Brazilian Democracy Today Is Bolsonarismo”

Author:
Michael Fox
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the wake of the attack on Brasília, both the Lula administration and civil society have a major role to play in combatting the forces propelling Brazil’s far right.
Topic:
Civil Society, Domestic Politics, Far Right, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

26. The global terrorist threat forecast in 2023

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The article presents three significant developments in the global terrorism landscape: Far-right terrorism, the growth of al Qaeda, with Taliban patronage from Afghanistan, and the persistence of the Islamic State as the most dominant threat in the world despite the successive decapitation of its leadership The article notes the importance in this context of political Islam and the spread of "jihadist" doctrines both from the Gulf and from conflict zones supplanting traditional and local Islam. The article also notes the potential impact of the radical environmental movement and the growing problem of the use of violence by other radical groups.
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Far Right, and Political Islam
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Global Focus

27. CTC Sentinel: June 2023 Issue

Author:
Pierre Boussel, Kristina Hummel, Teddy Macdonald, Ashley A. Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-Andre Argentino
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Pierre Boussel provides a deep examination of the Quds Force in Syria. He writes: “The key mission of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is to defend the Iranian Islamic Revolution and create armed militias in the countries of its ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Its organization is opaque and complex, coordinating combat operations with soft-power actions aimed at, among other initiatives, establishing a Pax Irania in the Middle East, a ‘peace’ of which it is the initiator and guarantor. Although the Quds Force’s apparatus in Syria has been under pressure from Israeli airstrikes, Tehran is sticking to its mission set: infiltrating Syrian civil society and sending fighters to the north, where the civil war will one day end, and to the south, on the edge of the Golan Heights, to establish a base against Israel if necessary.” Our interview is with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. He describes how his office “marshals the Department’s intelligence and enforcement functions with the dual aims of safeguarding our financial system against illicit use and also combating corrupt regimes, terrorist facilitators, weapons of mass destruction proliferators, money launderers, drug kingpins, and other national security threats.” On May 6, 2023, Mauricio Garcia, a man with longstanding neo-Nazi views, murdered eight people in a mass shooting at the Allen Premium Outlets mall in Allen, Texas. Ashley Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-André Argentino look at what led to the attack. They write that the deceased perpetrator “had an ideologically fuzzy tapestry of extreme thoughts tied to rampant violence. He appeared to view neo-Nazis and other members of the extreme far-right as living the ‘real’ masculine ideal in its fullest form by their commitment to generating dominance through violent, radical, racial, and cultural action. This interaction between race and gender is an increasingly present aspect of far-right violence and needs to be better understood.”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Financial Crimes, Far Right, Mass Shootings, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Political Extremism, Quds Force, Domestic Terrorism, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Golan Heights

28. CTC Sentinel: May 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, Colin Clarke, and Mollie Saltskog
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With Pakistan engulfed by political and economic turmoil, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—better known as the Pakistani Taliban—is again growing as a threat. In our feature article, Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming write: “With the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, the TTP has obtained new more sophisticated weapons and relocated fighters from Afghanistan to Pakistan and is now turning its focus back to its war against the Pakistani state. Over the past two years, the group has gone through a series of mergers, strengthened its media and operational activities, moved away from the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in suicide attacks, implemented a range of new internal policies centralizing its organizational structure, and settled on a localized strategy. With a solid organizational foundation and its eyes set on the Pakistani state, the TTP appears ready to follow in the footsteps of the Afghan Taliban and take control of territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has emboldened and strengthened the TTP. With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan and sympathetic to the TTP, the TTP now enjoys a level of ‘strategic depth’ that is arguably unparalleled in its history.” Our interview is with Robin Simcox, the United Kingdom’s Commissioner for Countering Extremism. He talks about tackling violent and non-violent extremism across the ideological spectrum and the findings of the recent independent review of the United Kingdom’s “Prevent” counter-extremism pillar. Wassim Nasr recounts his journey through Idlib in late April and early May 2023 on a reporting assignment for France24. He met with senior leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who told him they have definitively turned away from global jihad. In Nasr’s words: “You have a core jihadi group with core leaders saying, ‘OK, we don’t want anything to do with international jihad anymore.’ This is unique. It’s never happened before.” Colin Clarke, Mollie Saltskog, Michaela Millender, and Naureen Fink examine the recent targeting of infrastructure by America’s violent far-right. They write that “the increased focus and attacks on critical infrastructure by far-right extremists has the potential to wreak extensive, multifaceted societal disruption and damage, impacting communications, the economy, mobility, and basic human necessities.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Far Right, Jihad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

29. CTC Sentinel: February 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Stevie Weinberg, Aaron Y. Zelin, and David Wells
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Thanks to Editor-in-Chief Paul Cruickshank for allowing me to take over this space this month as we commemorate the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Combating Terrorism Center, established at West Point in February 2003. Originally the vision of Mr. Vinnie Viola, Brigadier General (Retired) Russ Howard, and General Wayne Downing, the CTC has evolved into a trusted global hub for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers. At the heart of what we do are the Cadets of West Point, who have made the Terrorism Studies Minor the number-one choice of minors at West Point over the last 10 years and who graduate to lead our nation’s Soldiers in complex times. This mission is empowered by 20 years of teammates, donors, partners, and stakeholders around the world who ensure the CTC is delivering cutting-edge research and insight in the fight against terrorism. While the CTC has been a mainstay of the CT fight for the last two decades, I posit that the most important time for this team is now. As national security priorities and resources rebalance toward strategic competition, the CTC will maintain its focus on understanding current and future terrorism threats to our nation and to the world, ready to assist our nation and our allies wherever we are called. To all who have made this possible, thank you. In this issue, the directors of the Combating Terrorism Center over the past 20 years—Brigadier General (Retired) Russell Howard, Colonel (Retired) Kip McCormick, Colonel (Retired) Joseph H. Felter, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Reid L. Sawyer, Colonel (Retired) Liam Collins, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan C. Price, Brian Dodwell and myself—provide our reflections on the contribution the Center has made to the counterterrorism enterprise. In our interview Col. (Res.) Omer Bar Lev, the former Minister of Public Security of Israel, discusses recent security challenges in Israel and warns that a potential third intifada is “getting closer and closer.” Aaron Zelin examines Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s ‘counterterrorism’ campaign against the Islamic State in northwestern Syria. As concern rises over the threat posed by older far-right terrorists, David Wells examines relevant data in the United Kingdom.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Far Right, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

30. Prospects for Saudi Arabia-Israel Normalization

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode, MEI's Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia