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361. UK-EU foreign, security and defence co-operation

Author:
Joelle Grogan, Jannike Wachowiak, and Richard Whitman
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
With an election looming in the UK, war raging in Ukraine, and the prospect of another Trump presidency in the United States, the possible evolution of the foreign and security policy relationship between the UK and EU has taken on additional salience. The response to Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown that global events can increase UK-EU cooperation on foreign policy. However, while such major events could in future reinforce the sense of the shared challenges faced by the EU and the UK, they may not be sufficient to propel the EU and the UK towards a truly bespoke security and defence agreement. This new report highlights how Labour and the Conservatives differ in their approach to foreign policy with the EU, and what this could mean for the future relationship. It finds that the EU has well-established models for relationships with third countries for cooperation on foreign and security policy. None of these, however, seem appropriate for a country with the foreign policy and military heft of the UK. This in-depth study of UK-EU relations finds that there is scope for a new relationship, but the EU sees the ball as being ‘in the UK’s court’ to push for closer cooperation. It finds that while the EU is likely to welcome further cooperation on foreign policy and crisis management, it is developing a defence industrial strategy focussed on single market members and Ukraine. A bespoke deal involving UK and EU defence industries therefore will encounter significant hurdles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

362. UK-EU Divergence Tracker Q4 2023

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU Regulatory Divergence Tracker, covers developments from October 2023 to January 2024. The Regulatory Divergence Trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. In the Q4 2023 edition, the tracker finds nine cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); ten of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of procedural divergence (where policy does not diverge but the processes for managing it do); and four of active alignment (where the UK takes steps to align more closely with EU rules, systems or programmes). Key developments on the UK-side include bills to ban the export of live animals and amend the UK’s GDPR regime; a new financial services agreement with Switzerland; and the use of secondary legislation to amend the EU-derived working time regulations and cap on bankers’ bonuses. The EU has brought forward some notable measures to increase the burden on businesses in the name of upholding labour and environmental protections.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

363. UK Trade Tracker Q4 2023

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker is now being produced quarterly and in a new format. The new format trade tracker will focus on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7; and finally, newsworthy developments which have occurred within trade in the last quarter. In the Q4 2023 edition, the trade tracker looks at how UK trade measures compare to 2019 as well as the proportion of total UK trade with the EU. In addition, the tracker looks at the UK’s trade balance and trade openness compared to the G7. Lastly, the tracker summarises the proposal for an independent UK Board of Trade, and explores what impact it could have and how likely we are to see its creation in the next year.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, and G7
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

364. UK-EU Divergence Tracker Q2-Q3 2024

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the twelfth edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s Regulatory Divergence Tracker, outlining how UK and EU regulations have diverged from one another in the period April-October 2024. Unusually, this tracker covers two quarters, accounting for the fact that UK and EU legislative activity was paused over the summer during their respective election periods. This tracker is therefore the first since the new Labour government took office, and there are already signs of a markedly changed approach to managing divergence. The pursuit of active divergence (where the UK moves away from the EU rulebook) has all but dried up, with just one case of active divergence in this tracker having been first initiated by the Labour government. Instead, the new government’s focus has been on delaying existing divergence (five cases) and laying the groundwork for active alignment with EU rules (two cases). The centrepiece of this new alignment agenda is the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill. It would allow the government to mirror a wide range of EU regulations, related to the environmental impacts of products, in UK law. These powers could be used to avoid new GB-EU and GB-NI trade frictions, and to stop Britain becoming a home for goods (e.g. toys, textiles or cars) no longer considered safe enough for the EU market. The tracker also finds twelve cases of ‘passive’ divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), as the EU continues to regulate very actively on product and environmental standards, with new standards on vehicle emissions and safety; a new regulation on product safety; new restrictions on PFAS chemicals; and new requirements for airlines to monitor non-CO2 emissions.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

365. The UK in a Changing Europe guide to UK-EU relations

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The 2019 election was meant to ‘get Brexit done’. But, five years on, Brexit matters as much as ever. Its economic effects are only just becoming clear. We are still grappling with various outstanding issues, ranging from Gibraltar to border controls to implementing new arrangements in Northern Ireland. There are deadlines in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which means aspects of the relationship must be renegotiated. EU rules and regulations continue to have implications for UK businesses and consumers. And the UK government is keen to ‘reset’ relations and add new areas of cooperation. Relations with the EU may not have figured much in the recent election, but it will continue to be an important area of public policy for the foreseeable future. This guide is intended as a snapshot of where we have got to with Brexit and what the prospects are for UK-EU relations. It provides a short, accessible assessment of what Brexit has meant for the UK and what options the current government has in terms of ‘resetting’ its relationship with Brussels.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

366. UK-EU climate and energy relations

Author:
Camilla Born and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
As the new UK government sets out its plans for a ‘reset’ of EU relations, plenty of attention has been paid to the security and trade aspects of the bilateral relationship. Much less discussed has been the issue of climate and energy cooperation. But, as this report sets out, these policies are inextricably linked to issues of security and trade. What’s more, there is an unusually high degree of potential to deepen UK-EU cooperation on climate and energy. The European Commission actively wants a closer partnership, and there is plenty of low hanging fruit to picked under the current trade agreement. The report covers energy and climate cooperation under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, highlighting the significant untapped potential for closer relations in terms of pre-existing commitments which have lain dormant. The report also looks at areas where cooperation could be deepened beyond the TCA, such as around trade and supply chains, regulatory divergence, and climate diplomacy. It also considers the politics on both the UK and EU side.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

367. UK Trade Tracker Q3 2024

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker focuses on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade with the EU and what has changed since Brexit; and UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7. This tracker reviews the first half of 2024 using ONS and OECD data. Following the election on 4 July, this data provides a final look at what the now-departed Conservative government achieved with its ‘Brexit freedoms’ on trade, and the situation the incoming Labour government has inherited. In this edition, we examine UK goods and services trade as a percentage of GDP as well as trade trends in the first two quarters of 2024. We then break down the data by goods trade with the EU and non- EU countries; exploring whether the previously puzzling trends of declining non-EU trade and stable EU trade continue to defy Brexit expectations. Additionally, we analyse UK total trade by country and region, including the top 10 UK trade partners, and how trade has changed over the past two quarters compared to the last few years. Lastly, we look at how UK trade fares when compared to its counterparts in the G7.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

368. UK-EU relations 2024

Author:
Cleo Davies, David Moloney, Jannike Wachowiak, Joël Reland, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK-EU relations have not been a central issue in this election campaign. Yet this does not mean it will not be a major policy challenge following the election. This report is the second comprehensive UKICE stock take of UK-EU relations, following eighteen months after our first. It aims to see where we have got to, and to suggest how relations might develop in the future. EU relations continue to exert a major influence on our politics and economic performance, and the next government will not be able to ignore that reality. The report highlights that despite the Windsor Framework agreement, UK-EU political dialogue remains limited. The UK has failed to boost its trade with the rest of the world and the government lacks a clear strategy for coping with EU regulatory changes, which complicates life for British businesses. Furthermore, there will be a number of challenges after polling day. The full implementation of both GB border controls and the Windsor Framework could create new trade problems, while negotiations on Gibraltar and fisheries could cause friction. The application of EU law in Northern Ireland also looks likely to be a continued source of tension. Drawing on discussions with key stakeholders, the report covers, among other areas, trade and the economy, migration and mobility, the UK Union, public opinion in the UK and EU, upcoming deadlines and decision points, the impact of political developments on both sides of the Channel, and the wider geopolitical environment.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

369. How Sweden Can Use its EU Presidency to Build the Civilian Security Dimension of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Michal Baranowski, Mikołaj Bronert, Maximilian Kaminski, and Elene Kintsurashvili
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) lacks a security dimension and this is an urgent reform need. In particular, the EU should become the leading provider of civilian security support in the EaP countries, particularly Ukraine. But significant weaknesses in this policy field inhibit its capability to do so. Sweden’s long-term focus on the EaP, its experience in augmenting domestic cyber and hybrid resilience as well as in placing the civilian aspect at the heart of its national security, and it its leading contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions put it in a unique position to be a champion of the security dimension of the EaP during its presidency of the Council of the EU. Sweden can do so by pushing for: a EU-NATO memorandum of understanding on the EaP; the provision of a rapid financing mechanism to assist EaP countries in nonmilitary defense; a more coordinated training, planning, and implementing process for CSDP missions between EU actors and the EaP countries; a more targeted approach towards EaP countries; and prioritization of deepening of cooperation with EaP countries in the domain of hybrid threats.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Sweden, and Central Europe

370. Building Resilience? The Cybersecurity, Economic & Trade Impacts of Cloud Immunity Requirements

Author:
Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
EU Member States should call on the EU’s Cybersecurity Agency (ENISA) and the European Commission to abandon immunity requirements in the proposed EU Cloud Certification Scheme (EUCS). With immunity requirements in the EUCS, the EU risks opening a Pandora’s box, paving the way for data localisation, foreign ownership restrictions, and local establishment requirements in digital industries globally leading to rising trade tensions. ENISA’s current proposal could increase policymakers’ appetite for data localisation in the EU. It would empower the European Commission and Member State authorities to exclude foreign businesses from domestic cloud services markets and set a dangerous precedent for any data-intensive sector. The list of “sectors of high criticality” could be logically extended to both existing services (e.g., financial services) and to new technologies and business models, such as IoT in the energy and healthcare sectors, and autonomous driving in the transport sector. Non-EU jurisdictions would be pressured to respond in kind. EUCS immunity requirements would increase cloud adopters’ exposure to cybersecurity risks. Data localisation often creates obstacles to an integrated management approach towards cybersecurity risks. Country of headquarter and foreign ownership restrictions in the proposed EUCS risk removing global frontier cybersecurity technologies from Member State markets. Excluding these and other EU and non-EU companies from EU Member States could result in a long-lasting security deficit of EU cloud adopters vis-à-vis organisations that are still able to use reliable and often best-practice cloud services offered by providers from outside EU Member States. Immunity requirements in the EUCS are discriminatory by design. They could provoke retaliatory measures by EU trading partners, either unilaterally or through WTO or bilateral FTA (e.g., UK-EU) Dispute Settlement. Local establishment requirements and foreign ownership restrictions would by design discriminate against foreign cloud providers. US-headquartered companies, which currently serve more than 75% of the EU market, would be most affected by EU immunity requirements.[1] Depending on US preferences and the scope of the proposed EUCS, the EU could be subject to retaliatory tariffs of up to USD 12 billion worth of EU goods exports or equivalent restrictions for EU services exports to the US. Other governments could lodge complaints via the WTO as well (e.g., Singapore, Japan, Canada and others, where cloud development is advancing rapidly). EU suppliers are currently in no position to manage a broad-based transition to cloud, and thus such requirements would delay significant efficiency and security gains that current foreign suppliers could offer. A blanket exclusion of non-EU cloud vendors would also likely undermine Europe’s objective to achieve a 75% cloud adoption rate for EU enterprises. Sensitive European businesses and public sector organisations would have to delay migration and make do with legacy systems for a very long time. Contrary to large countries, these negative impacts would be much more pronounced for smaller EU Member States, which lack the presence of large domestic incumbents and generally rely much more on an open international trading regime for digital services. ENISA’s cloud certification scheme should be limited to technical and transparency requirements. Immunity requirements for non-personal data should be addressed in bilateral initiatives such as the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) or agreements requiring a company that sought to offer services of the highest level of sensitivity to be headquartered in a country granted adequacy with EU data protection rules, or a country that is an adherent to the OECD’s Trusted Government Access principles, or (concerning the US) a participant in the upcoming Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework. Excluding foreign companies from operating in the EU would have far-reaching consequences. If that is the intent, it should require a sound legal analysis and the decision should be taken through a formal legislative procedure at the EU level.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, European Union, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, Trade, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe