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191. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:
Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:
Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Europe

192. La ampliación de la Unión Europeatras el conflicto de Ucrania

Author:
Jordi Regi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
El conflicto en Ucrania ha supuesto un nuevo reto para la UE en tanto en cuanto, la solicitud de adhesión a la UE planteada por el presidente ucraniano Zelenski el 28 de febrero de 2022 ha tenido consecuencias directas e indirectas para el futuro de la UE. Tres días después, Georgia y Moldavia presentaron solicitudes similares. En un periodo récord de menos de cuatro meses, en el Consejo Europeo de 23 y 24 de junio de 2022, los líderes de la UE decidieron conceder a Ucrania y Moldavia el estatus de país candidato, y reconocieron la "perspectiva europea" de Georgia, un paso hacia la candidatura formal. Nunca los países de la UE habían reaccionado afirmativamente con tanta rapidez a una solicitud de adhesión a la UE, pero detrás de la rápida respuesta de la UE al adoptar un nuevo proyecto de ampliación había una lógica estrategia geopolítica, y no cabe duda de que se trataba de una decisión histórica que no podía eludir. La problemática derivada del complejo proceso de adhesión y las opciones posibles serán tratadas en este artículo.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

193. Lecciones para la PCSD tras la Guerra en Ucrania

Author:
Gracia Abad Quintanal
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La evolución de la Unión Europea, lejos de ser lineal es, indudablemente una historia de avances loables y retrocesos sonoros. Esa evolución irregular es especialmente visible en el ámbito de la seguridad y defensa. Así, si por una parte al Tratado de Ámsterdam siguieron años de grandes avances como los que se materializaron en Saint Malo, Helsinki, Colonia, Santa María de Feira y Lisboa, con posterioridad, el triple choque resultante de la Guerra en Irak, la crisis financiera primero y la pandemia de COVID 19 se traduciría en un periodo de bloqueo y oscurecimiento sustancial del panorama. Sin embargo, esa situación no dudaría para siempre porque una nueva guerra, en Ucrania, percibida como un cambio estratégico fundamental que desafía los intereses y valores de la unión iba a propiciar el despertar de los europeos generando un nuevo impulso en lo que a la seguridad y la defensa se refiere permitiendo una búsqueda más decidida de una mayor autonomía estratégica con todo lo que ésta conlleva. Ese impulso se ve favorecido, además, porque los estados miembros más orientales de la Unión Europea, tradicionalmente más reticentes en este ámbito, siendo los más afectados por la renovada amenaza rusa, pueden empezar a serlo mucho menos. En esas condiciones se reabre, incluso, el debate de la ampliación, entreabriendo la puerta a estados que, de ser capaces de cumplir con los requisitos preceptivos para la adhesión podrían en algunos casos constituir un indudable activo para la seguridad y defensa de la UE en su conjunto.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)
Political Geography:
Europe

194. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

195. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:
Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Europe

196. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

197. Georgia at a Crossroads: An Increasingly Illiberal Domestic Policy is Becoming an Obstacle to EU Accession

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Georgia faces a defining moment. The recent adoption of a Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, modelled on Russian legislation, clashes with Georgia’s goal of EU accession. The law allows for extensive control and elimination of civil society and critical voices, which contradicts the democratic principles required for EU membership. The ruling Georgian Dream party nonetheless claims that EU accession, a goal shared by most Georgians, remains achievable by 2030. As the parliamentary elections on 26 October approach, the party seeks to maintain its grip on power by projecting an image of commitment to democracy and EU integration. But opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media have rallied against the law, which many believe reflects a deeper issue: the efforts of a small elite around billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to consolidate power and push Georgia towards authoritarianism under the guise of democratic governance. An increasing alignment with Russia has accompanied this trend, potentially enabling Russia to exert some level of control over Georgia through a local proxy instead of direct military intervention. This policy brief argues that the EU should implement the steps that High Representative Josep Borrell announced after the Foreign Affairs Council on 24 June 2024. In light of further developments, consideration should be given to additional measures, including targeted EU sanctions on anti-democratic actors similar to those imposed by the US. Continued EU support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression will also be vital for the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Georgia, as well as for regional stability.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, Domestic Policy, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Georgia

198. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:
Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

199. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

200. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:
Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium