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11. Security and Eastern Enlargement: Bridging the Gap for Wartime EU Accession

Author:
Monika Sus and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Given the unprecedented situation of wartime accession and the significant security implications of Ukraine’s EU membership for the Union and its Eastern neighbourhood, the EU should consider aligning the enlargement process with its broader security policy toward the candidate country. Failure to do so risks stalling the enlargement agenda due to unresolved security challenges. While some experts argue that linking security and enlargement policies could further complicate an already complex negotiation process, the opposite needs to be discussed. This Policy Brief proposes three institutional ideas that would facilitate integrating security concerns into the enlargement process without risking prolonging it. This includes examining the enlargement methodology, better collaboration between relevant Directorates-General (DGs), commissioners responsible for security, defence and enlargement, and the European External Action Service, as well as advancing the debate about the operationalisation of Art 42.7 to provide Ukraine with security guarantees in coordination with NATO.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

12. An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Eu’s Hampered Transformative Power in the Western Balkans

Author:
Doris Malaj and Elena Polo
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The objectives of this paper were to assess the role of the EU in the countries willing to join and committed to the negotiation processes (with a particular focus on the WB region) and to explore further and explain the dynamics of the EU’s crucial role onto the political performance, summarizing internal and external country and region-based developments. For this purpose, the deployed methodology consists of conducting a comparative quantitative analysis, comparing evidence from selected countries and from selected enlargement waves. The main results of the analysis confirmed that the EU’s role in ensuring democratic performances at the country/region level is seriously weakened over time and that it is therefore essential that the EU, especially in uncertain times, rethink and revitalize its democracy-promoting mechanisms to rebuild and re-test itself as a transformative power.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Democratic Performance, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

13. EU enlargement in wartime Europe: Three dimensions and scenarios

Author:
Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The enlargement policy of the European Union from 2013 to 2022 was not only ineffective, but also lacked an active enlargement drive. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the equation of costs and benefits in favour of new members and gave the EU a geopolitical incentive to restart enlargement. Enlargement is not only a geopolitical strategy, however: it also requires successful state-building efforts in the neighbourhood. Moreover, it is closely interlinked with the EU’s internal development. This Working Paper analyzes the current evolution of the EU enlargement policy as it emerges from the interplay of geopolitics, state-building challenges, and the EU’s internal dynamics. Drawing on original interviews with state officials, the paper also presents three scenarios for the coming decade. The paper concludes that to achieve its foreign policy objectives in the neighbourhood, the EU cannot continue “business as usual” with enlargement. On the contrary, the policy of 2013–2022 needs to be replaced by a more effective model that encourages candidate countries to undertake genuine efforts towards democratic development. At the same time, reforms and compromises are required at the EU’s end, including a solution to the dilemma between deepening and widening. Finally, the EU also needs to better address the security needs of the applicant countries already during the accession process.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

14. Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU

Author:
Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has reenergised the enlargement debate. Most member states now see enlargement as a way to respond to the geopolitical reality and strengthen the EU in its immediate neighbourhood. However, while the geopolitical arguments in favour of enlargement are even stronger today than they were 20 years ago, the process is likely to face more obstacles than it did back then. In most member states, the interest in enlargement is outweighed by concerns about the transformation that institutional reforms could bring about. Possible changes in the EU’s balance of power, the unresolved issue of the protection of the rule of law, and bilateral conflicts are major obstacles. To make a credible offer to candidate countries, the EU should agree on an internal reform process alongside a timeline for the next steps in the enlargement process at the EU summit in December. Regardless of the outcome of the internal reform debate, it should be ready to offer candidate countries at least participation in the single market, access to the EU’s budget, and observer status in EU institutions by 2030.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe