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122. Who’s Responsible for Climate Change? New Evidence Based on Country-Level Estimates of Climate Debt
- Author:
- Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta, and Jianhong Liu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we introduce the concept of climate debt and provide country-level estimates through 2035 under a business-as-usual scenario. These estimates can help inform the debate on climate change by providing a clear view of which countries have (until the present) contributed the most to climate change, as well as the likely path for climate debt by country over the next 15 years. We then discuss the implications for carbon emissions if the G-20 countries and EU were to adopt either of the two policy options proposed in recent months: the first by President Biden for the US and the other by the EU for its member countries. The implications for fiscal policy are that beyond the need to keep public debt at sustainable levels, countries will also need to allocate funds for expected increases in pension and health spending associated with aging populations. As a result, there may be little room for new expenditures (such as green infrastructure or subsidies for clean energy) to reduce the growth of climate debt. Countries could turn to the revenue side, in particular greater taxation of energy with carbon taxes. This would have the advantage of reducing emissions while also helping countries to fund spending on green infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Humanitarian Response, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
123. Valuing Climate Liabilities: Calculating the Cost of Countries’ Historical Damage from Carbon Emissions to Inform Future Climate Finance Commitments
- Author:
- Lee Robinson and Ian Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- A central commitment of action on climate is the promise of “developed countries” to jointly mobilize $100 billion of climate finance per year by 2020 (and through to 2025), formalised at the UN climate change conference in 2010 (COP16). Five years later, the Paris Agreement reaffirmed this commitment and promised a new goal after 2025 “from a floor of USD 100 billion per year.” We propose an approach for calculating financial climate liabilities for each country based on their historical CO2 emissions, using the idea of an externality: a social cost that has not been borne by the agent whose actions produced it. The paper follows earlier work on calculating carbon debts (e.g., Kunnas, 2014) which we update with recent and authoritative research on carbon pricing methods. We also adjust for awareness, calculating the accruing of liabilities only from the time that countries knew that their emissions were harmful. We present several scenarios adjusting this and other assumptions. The main scenario produces a clearly quantified liability for each country and a total carbon liability to the world of $34 trillion, or $4,500 per capita. If this liability was used to set climate finance goals, it would suggest OECD countries would need to contribute $190 billion a year to 2100. The analysis also highlights that other industrialised countries, notably China and Russia, have also built-up substantial liabilities and should therefore also contribute to future climate finance goals.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
124. Convergence, Development, and Energy-Intensive Infrastructure: Getting Africa to High-Income Status
- Author:
- Vijaya Ramachandran
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- The structural changes in an economy that accompany its growth to high-income status have been predictable in Europe, the United States, and Asia, characterized by declining employment in agriculture and rising levels of urbanization driven by jobs in the modern industrial sector. As agricultural productivity rises, the share of people employed in agriculture declines, and both urbanization and employment in manufacturing increase. Food prices fall relative to wages, causing the share of income spent on food to decline to very low levels. Asian countries have followed a similar path, although at a much faster pace. Africa, however, is different. Despite a high share of the population in urban areas, most African countries have yet to see significant increases in agricultural productivity that might drive industrial growth and jobs. In most African countries, the rising share of urban population has not been matched by increases in agricultural productivity, falling food prices, or the emergence of a viable industrial sector. Available evidence shows that agricultural yields in Africa are low and food is costly, while the share of employment in agriculture remains high. For the process of structural transformation to get underway, African countries must manufacture of fertilizer, develop better methods of water control, improve transportation, and invest in cold storage. Each of these interventions requires significant amounts of energy, including energy from fossil fuels. And they are not replaceable—countries have managed structural transformation in different ways but, to date, none have leapfrogged the process.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Energy Policy, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Africa
125. The Case for Transparency in Power Project Contracts: A Proposal for the Creation of Global Disclosure Standards and PPA Watch
- Author:
- Mohamed Rali Badissy, Charles Kenny, and Todd Moss
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- he purpose of a nation’s power sector is to deliver reliable electricity at the lowest cost and for the greatest benefit. At the heart of any private electricity generation project is a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), a contract that contains key provisions such as price, payment stipulations, and obligations by the offtaker utility and/or host-government. Despite their significant effects on service quality and public finances, these contracts are often negotiated and signed in secret, with even the most basic terms shielded from the citizenry. This opacity has created risks and, in a growing number of cases, contributed to costly and damaging outcomes, such as overpayment, overcapacity, large debts, and grid instability. Drawing on examples from enhanced transparency in public budgets, sovereign debt, and extractive industries, we propose that governments agree to publish PPAs with any public sector obligation and that funders of private generation projects also agree to minimum disclosure standards. The objective is to create incentives for better practice, improve governance of the power sector, reduce transaction costs, and ultimately, to deliver cheaper and more reliable power for people and businesses. Transparency of PPAs would support the efforts of government policymakers and planners, investors, and development finance institutions to accelerate energy market development and to reap the benefits of open competition. Greater disclosure would also provide crucial information for citizens to hold their own governments accountable for the contracts they sign on behalf of the public.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Transparency, Electricity, and Purchasing Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
126. CO21092 | Vertical Farms: Are They Sustainable?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Steve Kim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Vertical farming seems like the perfect solution to tackle land-scarce Singapore’s unique food security challenges. Given Singapore’s energy mix, however, a more holistic analysis will help measure and manage the performance of vertical farms to support the local agri-food industry’s role in Singapore’s sustainable development agenda.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Energy Policy, Sustainability, Farming, and Farmers
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Singapore
127. How China and Pakistan Negotiate
- Author:
- Katharine Adeney and Filippo Boni
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since being officially launched in April 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been one of the most watched set of projects under the aegis of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Having already injected around $25 billion into Pakistan, the CPEC not only has been dubbed the “flagship project” of the BRI, but it also holds a central role in Beijing’s global ambitions.1 While much has been said about the geopolitical implications of the CPEC, including for both India and the United States, less attention has been devoted to providing in-depth insights into the mechanics of how the BRI is unfolding on the ground in Pakistan. How do China and Pakistan negotiate the terms of CPEC deals? To what extent has Islamabad managed to exert agency in its dealings with Beijing? How does China adapt to the contexts it operates in? By now, the CPEC has been subject to much media, academic, and policy scrutiny, but these questions have not been answered. The power asymmetry between the two partners—coupled with the impression that the BRI represents a unidirectional Chinese endeavor, not just in Pakistan but also globally—has contributed to the erroneous representation that Beijing is merely imposing the CPEC on its all-weather partners in Islamabad. On the contrary, this study highlights China’s adaptive strategies in dealing with a host of Pakistani actors (including political parties, local communities, and the military) against the backdrop of Pakistan’s evolving political landscape and change in leadership following the country’s 2018 elections. In filling this gap, this paper foregrounds the importance of adopting a relational approach to studying how the BRI unfolds on the ground. This entails looking at how Pakistan and China have negotiated the CPEC’s energy, infrastructure, and industrial cooperation projects. The analysis is based on semi-structured elite interviews conducted by the two authors during three rounds of fieldwork in 2015, 2018, and 2020–2021 triangulated with a host of official reports, statements, and newspaper articles. Examining the domestic contours of the CPEC shows that Pakistani actors have wielded agency in important ways throughout the process, while Chinese actors at times have accommodated key Pakistani demands.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia
128. Submarine Collision Highlights Turbulent South China Sea
- Author:
- Chin Yoon Chin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Maritime Institute of Malaysia
- Abstract:
- Navigating through or under the water can be very trying when the area that one is transiting or operating is not well surveyed and charted. A vast area in the Spratly and Paracel island chain in the South China Sea is covered with corals and seamounts which could grow or pop up after a seismic disturbance. It is believed that there are vast areas of oil and gas deposits and precious metal in its depth, and it is also a rich fishing ground for these states bordering the South China Sea. For the past two decades or so, six littoral parties (China, The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan) have staked claims over this body of water. In recent years, the United States has been challenging China’s legitimacy to the claim by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) through China’s claimed areas. Why the US employed a submarine-like USS Connecticut to the South China Sea and for what purpose is anyone’s guess. Whatever task the submarine had undertaken, if it had operated within the confine of the gazetted sea lanes, it would not have run into this incident. The most likely situation was it operated “outside the normal” operational area when the incident occurred. It is believed that China’s underwater technology has improved over the last decades. This incident, in a way, has hyped up military activities in the South China Sea. The turbulence will not subside but will result in further escalation of tension which all the countries in this region would not want it to happen. To manage and mitigate tension, confidence-building and dialogues among all parties concerned are necessary to set aside differences, have mutual respect, and achieve the common goal of enhancing safe navigation and protecting the environment, instead of creating doubts and suspicions.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Gas, Maritime, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
129. Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation
- Author:
- Sharmine Narwani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- To realize shared priorities and fulfill the Persian Gulf’s potential as a global cornerstone for energy and trade, hardline Gulf states must acquiesce to waning U.S. hegemony and pursue reconciliation with Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
130. Locked-in Emissions: The Climate Change Arms Trade
- Author:
- Wendela de Vries
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- With militaries’ locked-in fossil fuel systems and looming climate chaos, the arms industry continues to take advantage of nefarious profit opportunities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Fossil Fuels, Private Sector, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus