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112. Stuck in the Past: Lessons on Emissions for Developing Oil Producers
- Author:
- David Manley and David Mihalyi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- As much of the world slowly moves into a low-carbon future, a group of countries are firmly stuck in a fossil-fuel past. These are mainly countries rich in fossil fuel resources. This is not only a problem for the global target to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases, but it puts these countries under a “carbon curse”. Under this curse, people pay more for energy, might be locked out of trading opportunities with countries with carbon taxes, and breath dirtier air. These fossil fuel-rich countries provide a lessons for developing countries with fossil fuels that are still to industrialize. These are countries that still have time to change direction to avoid being stuck in the past, and move into a more prosperous and cleaner future. Key messages Most economies are slowly decarbonizing, but the economies of high-income, fossil fuel-rich countries are not. This is the case whether examining production- or consumption-based emissions. Low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries can learn from the experience of wealthier fossil fuel-rich countries. Remaining on their current path could mean that low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries could face high energy costs, exclusion from export markets, and failure to meet future climate commitments.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
113. Tying Their Hands? How Petroleum Contract Terms May Limit Governments’ Climate Policy Flexibility
- Author:
- Nicola Woodroffe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The pathway to net-zero emissions will be a fraught one for many petroleum-dependent countries. Radical policy action is necessary to decarbonize the global economy , with significant economic implications for countries dependent on oil and gas revenues. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that global warming will exceed 1.5 and even 2 degrees Celsius without deep emissions cuts. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has proposed a freeze on new development approvals for oil and gas fields from 2021 if we are to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Current and emerging producers may want to go beyond merely reacting to foreign governments’ or international oil companies’ evolving climate policies – they may seek to proactively decarbonize and build climate resilience in their own petroleum sectors. Yet the long-term contracts governments sign with companies for petroleum exploration and production may significantly limit this flexibility for decades. Have producer countries begun to modify petroleum contract terms in response to climate change and energy transition risks? To explore this, the author of this briefing reviewed 34 contracts and model contracts from 11 countries, signed or issued since the Paris Agreement. This review focused on stabilization, arbitration, and force majeure clauses. The contracts reviewed do not yet indicate a shift in these clauses to respond to climate change risks, and the need for government flexibility to take climate policy action. Producer governments should reconsider traditional contract clauses and assess and adapt their petroleum sector legal framework to address energy transition and climate change risks.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Government, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
114. National Oil Companies and Climate Change: Insights for Advocates
- Author:
- Patrick Heller, Greg Muttitt, Alexandra Gillies, Paasha Mahdavi, David Manley, Valerie Marcel, Joachim Roth, Lourdes Melgar, Francisco J. Monaldi, and Angelo Picciariello
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- National oil companies are the “hidden half” of the global oil industry. The authors of this briefing write that climate and development advocates who seek to reduce fossil fuel supply and promote sustainable economies must engage with these state-owned companies, many of which are based in countries with high levels of poverty.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and State-Owned Enterprises
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
115. Rosatom in Europe: Russia’s Trojan Horse?
- Author:
- Tomas Janeliūnas, Yuri Tsarik, and Andrea Bonelli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The national security aspects of nuclear energy have long been sidelined, overshadowed by the much larger geopolitical interest in gas and oil. However, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, which is pursuing various opportunities in Europe and globally, has become part of Russia’s broader strategy to rebuild its geopolitical influence. According to some recent estimates, Russia has spent over $92 billion to support this prong of its strategy over the last ten years. The European Union (EU), however, is not fully cognisant of or properly postured to address the geopolitical and security risks accompanying Moscow’s use of Rosatom to advance its strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Baltic States
116. Reconceptualizing Lithuania’s Importance for U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Nikolas Gvosdev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- During the immediate post-Cold War period, the importance of Lithuania, along with other Central-Eastern European countries, to U.S. foreign policy increased. Lithuania became one of the jumping-off points for further “democratic enlargement” in Europe, Eurasia, and the Greater Middle East. Today, U.S. policy is focused on retrenchment and consolidation—defined by a shift in attention and resources away from the Euro-Atlantic region and the Greater Middle East towards the Indo-Pacific region—as well as the growing priority of climate change and the environment as central organizing principles. U.S. foreign policy is also increasingly subordinated to domestic political considerations about the costs and benefits of overseas action for constituencies within the United States. In the 2020s, Lithuania’s importance will rest less on the Russia dimension and further Euro-Atlantic enlargement into the post-Soviet space, and more on its ability to play a greater role in European affairs, to assist in the rebalance to Asian affairs more generally, and to contribute to energy, supply chain, and environmental security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, Lithuania, and United States of America
117. Energy: Factor of Stability or Conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Marika Karagianni
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Security of critical economic and energy infrastructure has become a key element in the agenda of both the EU and NATO. The global balance between energy producers and energy importers needs also to be respected in order to secure the smooth operation of global economy and trade. Global energy organizations like OPEC and GAS OPEC see to that. Constructive, multilateral energy diplomacy via the reinforcement of the EMGF (East Med Gas Forum) is considered as the optimum solution to any destabilizing factor in the region. The Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to become a gas supply source for the EU in the future, alternatively to Russia, which is why it has been identified by Brussels as a future gas diversification source. The official strategy of Cairo is to develop indigenous natural gas resources, with the double aim to increase gas production rates and to export significant amounts to Europe in the immediate future. Egypt is bound to lead gas exports of the Eastern Mediterranean countries and diversification for Europe, through its LNG terminals. The East Med pipeline could follow later on.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Gas, Political stability, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean
118. Economic Linkages across the Mediterranean: Trends on trade, investments and energy
- Author:
- Panagiota Manoli
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean is of multifaceted importance for the global economy, as it is one of the most highly valued seas globally. However, the region’s growth and economic integration path has often been obstructed by political upheavals and conflicts. This paper focuses on key features of the current regional dynamics in trade, investments and energy as sources of growth in the Mediterranean, with a view to assessing where the region stands today. The Mediterranean’s regional economic linkages manifest two dominant features: on the one hand, there is the marked heterogeneity of the countries’ performance in foreign trade, investment flows and energy (oil and gas) potential; on the other hand, there is the strong north-south element that shapes all intra-regional flows. These features indicate that, despite weak integration at a regional level, opportunities exist to strengthen intra-regional links as the Mediterranean further integrates into the global economy and benefits from long-standing multilateral and cooperative structures across the region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Global Political Economy, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Mediterranean
119. The geopolitics of the energy transition: Global issues and European policies driving the development of renewable energy
- Author:
- Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Fighting climate change makes a green energy transition imperative. The transition will have significant geopolitical consequences, notably a shift of power away from fossil fuel producers that do not adapt to a decarbonizing world. Access to critical minerals, rare earth elements and storage technology for renewable energy applications will be essential, and will determine the new geopolitics of energy. Some critical elements such as cobalt are only found in a few areas of the globe. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that will allow the storage and dispatch of energy produced by intermittent renewable sources such as solar and wind. While hydrogen trade could lead to new dependencies, it will provide a back-up for the electricity system and strengthen energy security. Currently, China is a leader in securing resources for the energy transition. The Belt and Road Initiative could consolidate its position. As it strives to be a leader in the energy transition, the EU is focusing on securing relevant supply chains, deploying technology and developing hydrogen capacity. International cooperation will accelerate the transition and give the world a chance to avoid catastrophic climate change.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
120. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan