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91. Oil in the Age of Biden: U.S.-Middle East Energy Relationships Under a New Administration

Author:
Ruba Husari, Samantha Gross, Gerald Feierstein, and Jean-Francois Seznec
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
One of President Biden's most ambitious campaign promises is centered around American energy policy. Biden has vowed to shift away from a traditional focus in oil toward investments in renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, the oil industry in the Middle East is already facing severe repercussions from the coronavirus pandemic. States like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon are struggling to replace oil revenue, cutting social benefits and worsening social unrest in the process. Oil has been the economic backbone on which the U.S. and nations in the Middle East have built diplomatic relationships and maintained mutual security interests. How will these crucial bonds be affected by a greener Biden presidency?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Oil, Pandemic, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

92. Winter Coal Shortages Reveal Chinese Energy Vulnerabilities

Author:
Elizabeth Chen
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Amid the coldest winter recorded since 1966, provinces across the People’s Republic of China (PRC) struggled with the worst electrical blackouts seen in nearly a decade (OilPrice, January 8). More than a dozen cities across Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong provinces imposed limits on off-peak electricity usage in early December, affecting city infrastructure and factory production. Analysts expect power shortages to persist through at least mid-February (SCMP, December 23, 2020). Officials have repeatedly assured the public that residential heating would not be affected and that China’s electrical supply remained “stable” and “sufficient,” even as energy spot prices continued to rise into the new year.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Services, Electricity, and Coal
Political Geography:
China and Asia

93. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Justice in the Arctic

Author:
Shaugn Coggins and James D. Ford
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Arctic regions are experiencing transformative climate change impacts. This article examines the justice implications of these changes for Indigenous Peoples, arguing that it is the intersection of climate change with pronounced inequalities, land dispossession, and colonization that creates climate injustice in many instances.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Poverty, Culture, Income Inequality, Justice, Indigenous, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Arctic

94. Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade, and Recycle

Author:
Christopher Bohringer, Sonja Peterson, Thomas F. Rutherford, and Jan Schneider
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This article summarizes insights of the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment costs to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Under the Paris Agreement countries voluntarily committed themselves to emission reductions – so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – in order to combat global warming. The study suggests that tightening of NDCs in line with the commonly agreed 2°C temperature target will induce global economic costs of roughly 1% in 2030 – yet, these costs are unevenly spread across regions with fossil fuel exporting countries being most adversely affected from the transition towards a low-carbon economy. In order to reduce adjustment costs at the global and regional level, comprehensive emissions trading which exploits leastcost abatement options is strongly desirable as it can relax contentious normative debates on equitable burden sharing. Lump-sum recycling of revenues from emissions pricing in equal amounts to every household appeals as an attractive strategy to mitigate regressive effects and thereby make stringent climate policy more acceptable on societal fairness grounds.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Recycling, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

95. Fossil Fuel Subsidy Inventories vs. Net Carbon Prices: a Consistent Approach for Measuring Fossil Fuel Price Incentives

Author:
Jens Bohm and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Different reports including the broadly cited OECD fossil fuel subsidy inventory arrive at high monetary values of fossil fuel subsidies and suggest that phasing out these subsidies has a high potential to increase the efficiency of climate policies. We show that the inventory approach gives misleading information about this potential since there is little correlation with net carbon prices that actually reflect the stringency of climate policies. We use data on net fossil fuel taxation from the OECD´s Taxing Energy Use report and augment it with data on subsidies and emission permits, to calculate national and sectoral net carbon prices for the top six emitters (China, US, India, Russia, Japan and Germany) and for Poland and Sweden, two European countries perceived as examples of opposing environmental policies. Our results show that in high-income countries, subsidies mainly relate to reduced fuel tax rates for certain uses, so that e.g. Sweden, for which the OECD inventory reports subsidies per ton of CO2 26 times higher than the US, has a 770% higher national net carbon price than the US. While Germany and Russia have similar subsidy levels in the OECD inventory, the national net carbon price in Germany is 50 €/tCO2, while producer subsidies lead to a negative net carbon price of -6€/tCO2 in Russia. Our results illustrate that raising taxes on fossil fuels will often lead to higher reported inventory subsidies. Inventory measures thus give little information about the efficiency of climate policy. Our analysis also shows the large differences in net carbon prices across countries and across sectors within countries. Net carbon prices should replace fossil fuel subsidies in the policy debates and become the basis for national energy tax reforms and international agreements on minimum carbon prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

96. Curse or Blessing? How cheap oil influences conflict dynamics

Author:
Matteo Ilardo
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
When the price of oil goes down, there is often a sigh of relief among oil-importing countries, as cheap oil means a boost for the economy and increased savings for consumers and businesses. As a result, most of Europe tends to notice price shocks only when prices go up: consumers are squeezed while producers accumulate enormous wealth. Yet, for oil-exporting countries cheap oil means increased poverty and tighter budgets – a recipe for instability and conflict. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. This is done by testing the two competing theories of the resource curse and of the rentier state, each offering a different interpretation of the oil-conflict nexus: The resource curse theory posits that an abundance of natural resources, and in particular oil, raises the probability, frequency, and intensity of conflict. The rentier state theory sees the presence of oil as having a positive effect on peace, as regimes use revenues to either buy off political opposition or suppress it. The recent price crash and its effects on conflicts in South Sudan, Libya and Iraq provide empirical support to the analysis. This Brief argues that both the stabilising and destabilising mechanisms identified in the two grand narratives are simultaneously at play in oil-rich countries. It shows that oil prices occupy a central role in determining which theory provides the most accurate outcome prediction. As a result, we hope to get a better understanding of the often-counterintuitive role that the resource plays in the onset of civil war. Building on the experience of the 2020 pandemic price plunge, the Brief ends with an overview of the future challenges that cheap oil will entail for producers and for Europe as oil demand peaks and the world moves away from fossil fuels.
Topic:
Civil War, Energy Policy, Oil, War, Natural Resources, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

97. How Russia Does Foresight: Where is the world going?

Author:
Andrew Monaghan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Thinking about the long-term future is a prominent feature of the Russian official strategic planning and public policy debate. Speaking in 2008, for instance, President Putin indicated the horizons of strategic planning when he stated that a concrete development plan for the period through to 2010 had been elaborated, and “now we need to look beyond this horizon – look at least 10 years ahead”. “Today we are deciding one of the most important issues for Russia’s future – defining its development strategy through to 2020”, he stated, and in setting out Russia's long-term vision for the future, "our long-term references must be clear to everyone”, and “must have the support of our citizens.” By the mid-2010s, policy-oriented public organisations were looking even further ahead. The Valdai Club, for instance, was conducting a project entitled Club 2035, to “look beyond the horizon” at a number of themes, including technological and socio-cultural trends, and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) was running a “World in 100 Years” project, including the series “On the eve of 2037”. Other major institutes, such as the Institute of World Economics and International Affairs (IMEMO) and the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs (MGIMO), also hold regular major events and publish substantial volumes reflecting on twenty-first century megatrends and strategic forecasting up to 2030 and beyond.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

98. Social Contracts: Embracing a Just Technological and Energy Transition

Author:
Ian Goldin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Social contracts determine what is to be provided and by whom. In democracies, political processes determine these outcomes, with the extent to which individuals, communities, cities, businesses, governments, and other actors and institutions provide education, health, security, infrastructure, and justice to shape what comes to be understood as the social contract. Whether prevailing social contracts produce desirable consequences, such as human rights, individual freedom, self-determination, human development, prosperity, and equality reflects their efficacy. What is considered an effective contract in the US or Europe, may however be viewed very differently in China, with the priorities and norms associated with shaping social contracts, as well as the means to achieve them, varying from country to country and over time. In this brief, author Ian Goldin shows that many existing social contracts are inadequate and require renewal to overcome countries’ failures to address the needs of the majority of their citizens. New pressures on societies arising from the pace of change associated with the technological and energy revolutions have created an urgent need to build new social contracts which ensure that no one is left behind. This need has been made all the more urgent by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has shown the extent to which large parts of society—informal sector workers, uninsured self-employed, unemployed, migrants, and others—have fallen by the wayside due to outdated or non-existent social contracts. Establishing secure and comprehensive social contracts is not synonymous with the establishment of a welfare state, as this is only one way to secure effective social contracts. How welfare states adapt to meet the new technological and energy transition, and which other models may serve to build effective social contracts is a key question.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Peace, Justice, Social Contract, Transition, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

99. When the wolf guards the sheep: confronting the industrial machine through green extractivism in Germany and Mexico

Author:
Alexander Dunlap and Andrea Brock
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Deploying an anarchist political ecology approach, this paper compares coal mining in Germany with wind energy development in Mexico. The paper outlines some principles from green anarchy to develop important values for anarchist political ecology, illuminating neglected issues that highlight the colonial nature of the industrial system responsible for the present state of ecological and climate crisis. After highlighting the normalizing and self-reinforcing nature of industrial systems, we turn to examine RWE’s mining operations in the German Rhineland. Here, we discuss the example of RWE’s Hambach mine, the world’s largest open-cast lignite coal mine that—while strongly resisted—is slowly destroying large parts of the Hambacher Forest every year. This destruction is justified by RWE’s deployment of green economic recultivation or ‘offsetting’ initiatives and legitimized by their corporate social technologies that attempt to marginalize and pacify militant resistance in the area. After delving into RWE’s attempts at ‘sustainable’ mining, we then turn to explore wind energy development in one of the greatest wind energy generations sites in the world, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region of Oaxaca, Mexico—known locally as Istmo. Regarded as a climate change mitigation strategy, wind energy in the Istmo is having similar impacts to traditional extractive industries, not only in how developers acquire land, but also how local indigenous groups that contest the construction of these operations are repressed. The following section will compare and discuss the similarities, differences and relationships between coal and wind energy extraction. Here, we coin the “renewable energy-extraction nexus” to describe how conventional and so-called renewable energy systems are dependent on each other, collaborate, and together expand and intensify industrial development and socio-ecological degradation in a rush to grab all the vital energies of the earth. We conclude by arguing that the green economy is renewing destruction, not only by ‘greening’— thus legitimizing — inherently unsustainable industrial activities but by expanding such activities and relationships at the cost of social health and ecological diversity.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Political Economy, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Coal, Sustainability, and Anarchism
Political Geography:
Germany and Mexico

100. Sustainable Development of Chitral: A CPEC Perspective

Author:
Asif Ali and Khalid Manzoor Butt
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The vision of sustainable growth of any community or region cannot be materialized unless provided with equitable socio-economic opportunities with environmentally friendly conditions. In the mountains of Hindukush, Chitral has remained significantly important from a geographic and strategic perspective. The piece of land in the extreme north of Pakistan is blessed with numerous natural resources and it is also a gateway to Central Asia. This valley is surrounded by rugged mountains, due to neglect and lack of land connection with the main country it has been deprived of the required development. The construction of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an alternative passage through Chitral will bring economic opportunities through investment in different sectors. With the materialization of the CPEC route, the potential in the valley will be explored and utilized for the betterment of the country in the broader spectrum and the local economy will strengthen as well. The opening of this trade route will not only change the economic landscape of the valley but will change the sociology of the area. This mega venture along with economic opportunities will also generate challenges for the indigenous community. Expected opportunities will attract more businessmen and investors from outside. This migration process will open the door to social transformation along with challenges not only from an economic perspective but an indigenous cultural heritage of the society will be endangered. Only an inclusive and integrated development stratagem with the involvement and support of all stakeholders will lead to the sustainable economic growth of the valley. Further, the people-centric development approach will bring economic opportunities for the people, otherwise, there will be more challenges than opportunities. This research work has been conducted to investigate the expected challenges threatening sustainable growth of the community and region. Furthermore, it suggests policy guidelines based on empirical evidence for curtailing those challenges.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Inequality, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Asia