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11. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement

Author:
Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa

12. After the Fall: Lebanon’s Path towards Monetary Stabilization

Author:
Jean Tawile
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is suffering the worst economic crisis in its history, caused by an economic model that produced a rentier economy feeding off a corruption-ridden state and preventing any economic growth and social justice. This model is not redeemable. This paper argues that stabilizing the currency is a first step to getting Lebanon’s economy back on the right track and explores possible pathways for doing so.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13. The Biggest Problem in Post-Communist Transition: The Privatization of Large Enterprises

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is rather clear what transition policies have worked. Almost all the post-communist countries have become market economies and have achieved macroeconomic stability. Privatization was economically necessary, and its economic outcomes have been very positive. Alas, politically, these successes have often been unsustainable because of strong popular sentiments against the private ownership of big enterprises. Substantial renationalization has occurred. What went wrong? How could privatization be done better, or be defended? What should be done to defend private enterprise in the future? This paper argues that the nature of privatization is far less important than the establishment of good rule of law so that private property rights can be defended.
Topic:
Privatization, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Trade, Transition, Soviet Union, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Post-Soviet Europe

14. Why a Traditional Austerity Plan Would Exacerbate Lebanon’s Woes

Author:
Mounir Mahmalat
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Following the eruption of mass protests in autumn 2019, Lebanon’s economy slid into a deep financial and economic crisis. Given the magnitude of Lebanon’s contemporary economic woes, a bailout program with participation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appears unavoidable. However, while a bailout program could avoid formal default and cushion the immediate effects of financial impasse, the austerity measures that will come attached are unlikely to achieve their goals. This article argues that in clientelist polities with weak states such as Lebanon’s, austerity programs carry the risk of leaving unaddressed the underlying inefficiencies that led to economic decline in the first place. Instead of prioritizing budgetary measures and spending cuts in a conditional reform program, international donors should seize this novel window of opportunity to legitimize a reform plan with popular demands. Measures to increase judiciary independence and political accountability in particular bear a larger potential than austerity measures alone to change politics and finally create a sustainable economic model.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Austerity, Sustainability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon