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21. The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned . This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.
Topic:
Politics, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

22. 70 years on, it's time to reinvent the ECSC

Author:
Thierry Lepercq
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Upset between Berlin, Brussels and La Coruña On 16 May 2022, in the Radialsystem conference centre in Berlin, a chair remained forlornly empty. The German Minister for Education and Research, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, inaugurated the conference "Green Hydrogen for a Sustainable European Future" promoted by the German government, before handing over to her Italian counterpart, Cristina Messa, and then to European Commissioner Mariya Gabriel. The empty chair was that of the French Presidency of the European Union which, despite strenuous effort on the part of the German government, did not wish to delegate a representative. In the Chancellery, the mood was one of great tension. Nearly 100 executives representing 31 gas transmission and storage operators (TSOs) from 28 European countries met with the European Commission on 7 June 2022 in Brussels. It was time to present the latest version of the European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB), an initiative launched two years ago by the German company OGE. On the agenda was the unveiling of an ambitious plan to build 28,000 km of hydrogen pipelines across the continent by 2030. One point of interest was a dotted line linking Barcelona to Livorno - to connect the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe, bypassing France, whose opposition to cross-border green hydrogen infrastructure is no longer a mystery. A few months later, on 5 October 2022 in La Coruña, Pedro Sanchez, president of the Spanish government, hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, together with some fifteen ministers. On the agenda of this summit: the European energy crisis and the measures that must be taken to strengthen the continent's supply security and European solidarity. One proposal stood out: to strengthen gas interconnections to allow liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving in Spanish ports to relieve a German industry that is on the verge of suffocating - and to pave the way for the implementation of green hydrogen transport infrastructures (EHB).
Topic:
Energy Policy, Gas, Investment, Economic Crisis, European Commission, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Spain

23. The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using tax–benefit microsimulation models with representative household survey data, first we estimate the coverage of benefits and their poverty-reducing effects in each country. Second, we study the ability of benefit automatic stabilizers to reduce losses in incomes and consumption in times of crisis, by simulating hypothetical reductions to earnings and employment. Although the coverage of benefits is fairly high in Ghana and Zambia, the poverty-reducing impact of benefits in all five countries is low in normal times. The effectiveness of benefits to stabilize income and consumption in times of crisis is also limited because many benefits are linked to proxies of income, not income itself, or have tight eligibility criteria. Social assistance programmes are typically unresponsive to losses in household earnings and employment and provide limited support for unemployed people.
Topic:
Poverty, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Income
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana

24. Corruption and crisis: do institutions matter?

Author:
Shrabani Saha and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on lives and livelihoods are well understood, we know little about the effect of the pandemic for longer-term outcomes such as corruption. We look at the historical data on political and economic crises to assess what we can learn from the long-term effects of past crises on corruption. We hypothesize that strong rule of law institutions may ameliorate the possible adverse effects of political and economic crises on corruption. We test our hypotheses using panel data for over 100 countries during the years 1800– 2020. The results suggest heterogeneous effects depending on the type of crisis and how we measure it. We find that rule of law institutions can control corruption in cases of political violence and economic slowdown, but the effect is not seen for democracy breakdowns, coups, armed conflict and civil war, and economic crisis such as currency and debt crisis.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Rule of Law, Institutions, Data, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Lucky Women in Unlucky Cohorts: Gender Differences in the Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions in Latin America

Author:
Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper assesses gender differences in the effects of adverse conditions at labormarket entry in a developing region. Using harmonized microdata from national household surveys for 15 Latin American countries, we build a synthetic panel of cohorts that potentially transition from school to work and observe their labor market outcomes 10 years later. We find that men who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18-20 suffer a negative effect on employment at ages 27-30. In contrast, women from those same unlucky cohorts have higher employment rates and earnings. Our results are consistent with women acting as secondary workers in downturns. We also find that women from unlucky cohorts control a larger share of family income and are more likely to be the head of household 10 years after labor market entry, and that adverse initial labor market conditions are correlated to more egalitarian perceptions about gender roles later in life.
Topic:
Employment, Unemployment, Economic Crisis, Gender, and Scarring Effects
Political Geography:
Latin America

26. Mongolia’s Currency Crisis: Made in China?

Author:
Antonio Graceffo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
When COVID-19 lockdowns closed the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) borders in 2020, imports entering Mongolia came to a grinding halt, leading to domestic inflation and product shortages. Exports also declined significantly, further constricting the flow of U.S. dollars into the country. More than two years later, China continues to pursue its “Zero-COVID” policy and the Russia-Ukraine war is driving up global gas and energy costs. An unwitting victim of decisions made in Beijing and Moscow, Mongolia is facing currency devaluation, high inflation, and a shortage of dollars.
Topic:
Currency, COVID-19, Economic Crisis, and Zero-COVID
Political Geography:
China, Mongolia, and Asia

27. Tunisia's Economy

Author:
Intissar Fakir, Marwa Haddar, and Fadil Aliriza
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions' role in the crisis, and the government's actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Finance, International Institutions, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

28. Taliban rule of Afghanistan at six months

Author:
Marvin G. Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Marvin Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi discuss Afghanistan’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises six months after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country.
Topic:
Security, Taliban, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

29. Lebanon in Crisis

Author:
Randa Slim and Edward M. Gabriel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Randa Slim and Amb. Edward Gabriel discuss the daunting trifecta of economic, financial, and political crises Lebanon currently faces and what they anticipate for the country's future.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Political Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

30. World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose

Author:
Emmanuelle Ducros
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The profound destructuring of world food markets as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine is forcing all of the world's agricultural powers to question their place on the world stage of satiety - or hunger. This is primarily the case in Europe.
Topic:
Food, Hunger, Armed Conflict, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine