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11. Pakistan Security Report 2023

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
As the incidence of terrorist violence marked an upsurge of 17 percent in Pakistan in 2023, Pakistan's response and focus were no match to the mounting challenge of terrorism and militancy. The country's negotiation bid with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and dwindling political focus on countering terrorism due to persisting political and economic crises emboldened the banned TTP and others to regroup and escalate terrorist violence in Pakistan. The key actors of terrorist violence were also more pronounced in the year 2023; over 82 percent of the terrorism-related deaths resulted from attacks perpetrated by three major groups including the TTP [and its subsidiaries such as Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan], Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). These three groups carried out over 78 percent of the total terrorist attacks recorded in the country in the year under review. These findings were revealed in Pak Institute for Peace Studies' Pakistan Security Report for 2023, which was released on 4 January 2024. The report includes the comprehensive data on violent incidents including terrorist attacks, comparative analysis of various security variables, the changing targets and tactics of militants and nature of state responses, as well as policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violence, Economic Crisis, and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

12. Bolivia in its Labyrinth

Author:
Gabriel Rodríguez García
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Bolivia’s economic and political crisis is a symptom of the moral decay of the Movement Towards Socialism party, putting into question its once revolutionary promises and horizons.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Political Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

13. Don’t Forget About the Red Sea

Author:
Burak Şakir Şeker
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
A widening of Israel’s War on Gaza could threaten the vital Red Sea waterway and lead to a global economic crisis
Topic:
Trade, Shipping, Economic Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Red Sea

14. Egypt’s 2023–24 Economic Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:
Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Currency, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

15. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Justice, the Beirut Blast, and Lebanon's Continued Crisis

Author:
Fadi Nicholas Nassar and Ronnie Chatah
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
MEI's U.S.-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar speaks to Ronnie Chatah - host of the Beirut Banyan and founder of WalkBeirut - about justice in the wake of the Beirut Blast. Why have family members of the blast's victims recently been arrested, and where does accountability lie as Lebanon continues to slip into further crisis?
Topic:
Accountability, Justice, Disaster Management, Economic Crisis, and Beirut Blast
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

17. When the Economic Road Ends: Is Another Great Depression on the Horizon?

Author:
Tuomas Malinen
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We begin with a quintessential American expression: “uh oh.” Those words very likely embody the thoughts of the chief examiner of the U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March 2023, the day when that bank faced a cataclysmic run on its deposits. In just two days, SVB customers tried to pull an astonishing 87% of deposits from the bank. It is obvious that no bank can survive such an onslaught. SVB was destined to fail. And so, it did—on that very day, in fact. Jonathan Rose, a historian and Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has published an eye-opening inquiry into the historical parallels of the runs on Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, Signature Bank, and First Republic in a recent article in the academic journal Economic Synopses. His research paints a startling picture on the scope of those runs, placing them in the context of the history of the largest depositor runs in the U.S. banking system between 1934 and 2021. Rose found that the most destructive bank runs in the period following the Great Depression of the 1930s and before 2022 have been the runs on Continental Illinois and Trust (which commenced on 7 May 1984), Washington Mutual (8 September 2008) and Wachovia (15 September 2008). They saw a deposit outflows of 30%, 10.1%, and 4.4% of total deposits, respectively. To note, the run on Continental Illinois in 1984 was already a largely electronic one due to automated wire transfers, and thus “lightning fast.” The outflow from Silvergate was 52% (during Q4 2022); on SVB it was 87% (10 March 2023 + expected during the next day); on Signature it was 29% (10 March 2023 + expected next day); and on First Republic it was 57% (approx. between 10-24 March). These are truly historical figures, matching those seen during the Great Depression. Many authorities and analysts are currently pondering what this all means for banks, their deposits, and countries in general, and where we could be heading. In this essay, I will explain why authorities have caused the ongoing crisis, why is it likely to get much worse, and what this implies for the world. I will conclude with a bit of unsolicited advice on how a certain category of countries, which includes Azerbaijan, can prepare and even benefit from its effects.
Topic:
Economics, Great Depression, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and Global Focus

18. Feature Article: In Search of Hope: Gaza’s Youth Face Death and Row the Boat in Uncertain Waters

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the scorching summer of 2023, hundreds of Gaza youths driven by depression and despair queued to submit their applications to obtain Turkish visas. In search of a better life, those youths have made the tough decision to travel to Turkey. However, the story does not end at this point. After landing at Turkey, many will attempt illegal migration to Europe using dangerous boats. Since 2007, local reports have confirmed that over 250,000 youths migrated from the Gaza Strip in pursuit of a thriving life in Europe. In August 2023, alone, there were over 16,700 Turkish visa applications submitted by young adults living in the Gaza Strip’s five governates. Interviews with applicants revealed that the most travelled destination is Turkey through which they can migrate to Europe. Young citizens, aged 18 to 30, emphasised that the already deteriorating economic environment in Gaza has created a space for higher immigration rates. Migration from the Gaza Strip has been increasing in recent years. As a result of stagnating economic situation, prospective migrant youth have highlighted that migration is not a voluntary choice but a consequence of prolonged economic hardships. Several research papers have shown that there are no accurate statistics on the people’s number who left Gaza, however, in May 2019 it was cited that more than 40,000 emigrants left Gaza as of the same time in 2018. While the United Nations estimated about 20,000 people left and according to human rights experts in Gaza, 70,000 people left from the period of 2014 until 2020. Although this is just an approximate estimate, these numbers suggest a high percentage of youth migrating from Gaza. According to UNHCR data, close to 150,000 people made their way into the EU this way in 2022 alone.
Topic:
Push Factor, Economic Crisis, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean

19. Household Wealth Inequalities in the wake of the Greek Debt Crisis

Author:
Apostolos Fasianos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Despite the renowned interest in wealth disparities, the distribution of wealth in Greece is largely understudied. This study maps the levels, dynamics, and composition of household wealth using data from the three waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey for Greece for the period after the debt crisis of 2009-10 till 2017. The evidence suggests that the richest 1% of the population holds roughly as much wealth as the poorest 50%, while the richest 10% holds about four times the wealth of the poorest 50%. Most inequality indicators employed indicate increasing trends in wealth disparities between 2009 and 2017. During this period, average and median wealth holdings decreased by about one third, and the share of financially fragile households increased by about 20%. Estimates from factor inequality decompositions suggest that, although relatively evenly distributed, housing asset holdings explain much of the increase in overall wealth inequality in Greece, followed by self-employment business equity; financial assets play a negligible role. Financial wealth inequality is much more pronounced than housing wealth inequality in Greece. The findings of the paper carry important implications for the design of appropriate policies aiming at reducing wealth inequalities and strengthening financial resilience.
Topic:
Debt, Income Inequality, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

20. Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.
Topic:
Economics, Currency, Economic Stability, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt