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41. Appetite for Destruction: The Military Counter-Revolution in Sudan

Author:
Dan Watson
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The military coup d’état in Sudan on 25 October 2021 sent shockwaves across the region and through diplomatic circuits. Following the arrest of the civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several prominent senior officials from the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), demonstrators took to the streets across Khartoum. They were confronted by soldiers from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries in the capital, with reports emerging of Central Reserve Police paramilitaries also being deployed (Human Rights Watch, 29 October 2021). Over 10 people have reportedly been killed by state forces thus far and over 160 wounded (Radio Dabanga, 29 October 2021; UN OCHA, 28 October 2021), with at least some victims uninvolved in the demonstrations (Eye Radio, 27 October 2021). Demonstrations have since spread across much of Sudan.
Topic:
Violence, Coup, Counterrevolution, Demonstrations, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

42. Myanmar’s Spring Revolution

Author:
Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The Myanmar military’s decision to seize power on 1 February 2021 triggered a wave of resistance across the country. By the end of June, over 4,700 anti-coup demonstration events were reported in Myanmar.1 The military has responded with a campaign of violence and mass arrests. Despite the crackdown, anti-coup activists have continued to demonstrate, and some have armed themselves in self-defense. The military coup has also re-ignited conflicts in areas of the borderlands that had until recently been on the wane. As calls for international action increase, diaspora communities have organized and joined demonstrations across the globe in solidarity with those inside the country. This report examines the political disorder in Myanmar brought about by the military junta and analyzes the resistance — both armed and unarmed — to the coup.
Topic:
Protests, Violence, Coup, and Repression
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

43. Red Lines: Upheaval and Containment in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Dan Watson
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
This is the final part in a series of three analysis features covering unrest in Sudan. The first in the series — Riders on the Storm — explored the dynamics and agendas which resulted in the Juba Peace Agreement. The second — Danse Macabre — examined the origins of the uprising in Sudan and its trajectory following the coup of April 2019. This final analysis situates Sudan’s current upheaval in the context of the Horn of Africa, and extends the scope of analysis to encompass conflict in Ethiopia and the region.
Topic:
Political Violence, Conflict, Coup, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Horn of Africa

44. Myanmar Crisis Needs Concerted Democracy Support from Asian Middle Powers

Author:
Hun Joon Kim
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s fight for democracy endures amid violent crackdowns inflicted by the military government. While the number of fatalities and casualties, especially those among the youth and children participating in the nationwide civil disobedience movement (CDM) continues to increase, democracies in the region have become increasingly alert towards the situation in Myanmar. Hun Joon Kim, professor at Korea University, and Sook Jong Lee, professor at Sungkyunkwan University and senior fellow at the East Asia Institute, state that while middle power democracies of India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea have made significant moves against the military coup in support of Myanmar’s path towards democracy, they should coordinate among themselves to pursue more substantial ways of engagement. Civil societies of Asian middle power democracies have shown moral and financial support to the CDM in Myanmar and have manifested unusually high levels of empathy and support for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. To sustain such support and facilitate change towards democratic transition remains a challenge – one that requires unequivocal support from Asian middle power democracies.
Topic:
Democracy, Protests, Crisis Management, and Coup
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

45. Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s crisis: And the implications for Australia

Author:
Huong Le Thu, David Engel, and Hillary Mansour
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The rapidly unfolding Myanmar crisis is presenting Southeast Asia with one of its most severe security and stability threats in the past three decades. While the region is certainly familiar with military coups and violent changes of government, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar carries risks far more acute than previous coups d’etat in the region. One of them is the risk to the sustained modus operandi of the region’s key institution—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The outcome of ASEAN’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is consequential not only for the Myanmar people, but also for the association’s ability to credibly lead efforts to preserve peace and security in the region into the future. In this report, we assess the security situation in Myanmar, ASEAN’s collective response and the individual roles of key ASEAN member states in the mediating process. We focus on the effect that the Myanmar crisis has on the overall ASEAN political and security situation, and highlight Indonesia’s leadership, and limitations, in the process. We also detail the legal instruments and responsibility of ASEAN—in the form of the ASEAN Charter—to uphold the rule of law. The report concludes with some policy implications for the wider region, particularly Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Coup, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Australia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

46. The UN’s Response to the Human Rights Crisis After the Coup in Myanmar: Destined to Fail?

Author:
Damian Lilly
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Since seizing power in a coup on February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military has launched a violent crackdown against anti-coup protesters—a campaign of terror that may amount to crimes against humanity. With violence spreading, there are fears that the country is slipping toward full-scale civil war and state collapse. The international community has appeared almost powerless to respond to this human rights crisis, reflecting a broader weakening of its resolve to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes over the last decade. This policy paper analyzes the human rights crisis created by the coup in Myanmar and assesses the response of the UN, within the context of broader international efforts, when viewed against the many commitments that have been made to protect people from atrocity crimes. The first section outlines the different elements of the human rights crisis and the violations that have been occurring. The second section places the events in Myanmar in the context of international commitments, including by the UN, to address atrocity crimes. The third section reviews the human rights tools that are at the disposal of the UN to understand what works and what does not and to highlight innovative ways to address such a challenging situation. The paper concludes with proposals for what an agenda for protection in Myanmar might entail, building on the ambitious Call to Action for Human Rights launched by the UN secretary-general in 2020. The unfolding tragedy in Myanmar is one of the first major tests of the secretary-general’s initiative, and so far, the UN’s response—both as an intergovernmental body of member states and as a system of operational entities—has been woefully inadequate. While there is no simple recipe for halting the atrocity crimes, the UN could take a combination of measures at several levels: Grounding the response in a political strategy; Increasing capacity for human rights monitoring and quiet diplomacy; Providing clear leadership that encourages a less risk-averse approach; Devising a whole-of-system approach to the UN’s response; Scaling up protection services; and Supporting existing nationally or locally-led protection efforts.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Coup, Civilians, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

47. Assessing SSR Opportunities and Challenges During the Transition in Mali

Author:
Flore Berger
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Five months after the coup d'état in Mali, the main questions about the 18-month transition period - Who will be the key players? What will the priorities be? - have been answered. But while the transition period opens up new opportunities, there remain many challenges and obstacles to significant progress in security sector reform.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Reform, Leadership, Coup, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

48. Pity the Nation: Honduras Is Being Eaten from within and without

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Where does Honduras stand twelve years after the 2009 coup? In our dossier, jointly produced with People’s Dispatch and the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organisations of Honduras (COPINH), we look at the coup against progressive leader and President Manuel Zelaya and the prolonged violence in the country in the years since by examining the assassination of Berta Cáceres, the forced disappearances of five members of the Garifuna community in July 2020, and the concerted attacks on trade unionism to understand the far-reaching impacts of the coup.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, North America, and Honduras

49. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:
Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:
Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

50. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan