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31. The West’s struggle in Sudan: Standing with the people while being stuck with the coup regime

Author:
Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. Meanwhile, conniving with Islamist elements of the former al-Bashir regime, the coup alliance is cementing its stranglehold over the state. The historic opportunity for genuine democratic transition risks being lost. This policy brief argues that, by holding on to a transition that has ceased to exist, Western governments have helped consolidate the coup. To counter that course Western donor governments are well advised to 1) increase economic and diplomatic pressure on the coup regime, 2) strengthen the civil society that opposes the coup, and 3) safeguard aid against diversion and political manipulation.
Topic:
Democratization, Coup, Revolution, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

32. Coups D’état in the Covid-19 Era

Author:
John J. Chin
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In the years preceding the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, many observers were cheerily optimistic about the decline of coups d’état in the twenty-first century. As late as early 2019, for example, Axios declared confidently that coups—or illegal seizures of power by military or government actors—“are becoming a thing of the past.”1 In early 2022, the same journalist and outlet reported that “coups are making a comeback.”2 Between those three years (January 2019–January 2022), 13 coup attempts occurred, 10 of which succeeded. By contrast, in the three years beforehand (January 2016–January 2019), there had only been five coup attempts, two of which were successful. In other words, the number of coup attempts more than doubled, and the number of successful coups quintupled, according to my updated Colpus dataset of coup types.3 What accounts for the apparent coup comeback? Is the pandemic itself to blame? In this article, I draw on my newly updated Colpus dataset of coup types, documenting all coups through February 2022, to survey the history of recent coups. I first show that after several decades in decline, coups started to make their comeback before the pandemic. I then survey the potential causes of “covid coups” and the factors for why recent coups have been overwhelmingly concentrated in Africa. I conclude by reflecting on the legacy of “covid coups.”
Topic:
Coup, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

33. Why Military Coups Are Back in Africa

Author:
Enoch Ndem Okon
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The celebration of seeming democratic density on the continent is understood against the background of the recent historical past where almost all the states in Africa were under the grip of either a military ruler, or an authoritarian one party despot. At the dawn of the new millennium, military coups and totalitarianism were releasing their grip on the continent as multi-party elections and electoral turnover gained momentum. Indeed, many regional organizations within the continent subscribed to the elimination of military coup and other means of grabbing political power, except the ballot boxes, as well as the full embrace of democratic norms and practices; therefore, there are clauses in regional governance and protocol affirming the primacy of democracy over any other form of government as signed by regional blocs on the continent.
Topic:
Government, Democracy, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa

34. The View of the Coup from the Camp: Myanmar’s Emergent Trans-Ethnic Solidarity

Author:
Elliott Prasse-Freeman and Tani Sebro
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar’s recent military coup has, for now, ended the country’s brief ten-year experiment with democracy. But the military junta did not anticipate a massive country-wide social movement against the brazen power-grab, in which millions have taken to the streets. As protests continue in urban centers, a trans-ethnic and pro-poor solidarity movement is emerging. Myanmar’s most excluded subjects, many of whom watch the protests from refugee camps, are now weighing both the possibilities and precariousness that the coup entails.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Minorities, Displacement, Conflict, and Coup
Political Geography:
Asia, Myanmar, and Oceania

35. Myanmar’s Generals Recoup: The recurrence of military-defined “disciplined democracy”

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s generals cited election fraud as the motive behind their coup. However, as the country’s transition during the past decade has been rooted in military-orchestrated “disciplined democracy”, the real drivers behind the coup are likely different.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Coup, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

36. The Geostrategic Interests of External Actors in Myanmar: A Struggle for Influence in a Country in Turmoil

Author:
Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Countries with geostrategic stakes in Myanmar have reacted in different ways to the military coup of 1 February 2021 and its aftermath, which have resulted in over 750 casualties thus far. China benefits from stability in Myanmar but, given its vast geoeconomic and geopolitical interests as Myanmar is a vital part of the BRI, will not criticize the military. Thailand, itself a military-dominated pseudo-democracy, is certainly reluctant to exert pressure. India focuses on its own national interest and prioritizes the partnership with its strategically important neighbour. Japan applies quiet diplomacy and aims to function as mediator, while at the same time protecting its business interests. The EU and US have sanctions in place, but history shows these do not have much effect on the junta. Russia’s presence is not significant, but Moscow uses arms sales to establish a foothold in the Indo-Pacific. ASEAN aims to mediate with Indonesia in the lead, and even achieved a broad consensus on the situation in Myanmar, but likely remains too divided to deliver lasting change on the ground. Given the divergent geostrategic interests of external actors in Myanmar, a concerted effort to achieve change in the country is unlikely. Hence, sustained change has to come from within the country.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Coup, Military Government, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

37. Myanmar’s Military Struggles to Control the Virtual Battlefield

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In order to silence opposition to the February coup, Myanmar’s military is vigorously policing the internet as it quashes street protests. Outside powers and technology companies should endeavour to keep the online space free of interference and deny the junta tools of virtual repression.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Military Government, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

38. A New Coup Era for Africa?

Author:
Jonathan Powell, Abigail Reynolds, and Mwita Chacha
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
It was not long ago that the decline of coups was being celebrated, not just in Africa, but globally. New African magazine asked in Fall 2015 why coups are going out of style.[1] Writing in September 2017, Schiel and her co-authors pointed to a two-year period since the last attempted coup in Africa, with the continent approaching three full years since the last successful attempt.[2] A month later, former Malian Foreign Minister Kamisssa Camara – even in the context of herself serving shortly after a coup –suggested that ‘the time for coups is over’.[3] Though perhaps not a long period at first glance, this was the longest coup-less stretch in Africa since decolonisation. Various efforts have been made to explain this shift, including the institutionalisation of more open political systems and the role of external actors such as the African Union (AU).[4] Though the November 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe was a new coup, coups remained something of an afterthought in subsequent years. More recently, commentary at the Council on Foreign Relations concluded that ‘old style’ coups in which soldiers attempted to seize power had been supplanted by incumbents scheming to maintain it.[5] This has changed since August 2020, with successful coups taking place in Chad, Guinea, and twice in Mali as well as a failed effort to seize power in Niger, and both a failed and successful coup in Sudan. This apparent resurgence in the phenomenon has prompted much discussion on the causes of these events, whether they are related, and what – if anything – the region can do to buck the trend. Independent African states have experienced over 200 coup attempts since 1950, of which over 100 have succeeded (see Figure 1).[6]
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa

39. China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom

Author:
Roger Garside and Andrew Nathan
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This short book predicts—contrary to the prevailing consensus—that China’s leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup d’état mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end China’s one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat, development banker, and author Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and then—in the main body of the book—to explain why. His gripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature. Garside argued that under Xi’s overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xi’s rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that China’s actions have provoked from the world’s strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, Xi’s rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save China—and themselves—from catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act. Garside’s scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xi’s rivals move against him.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Leadership, and Coup
Political Geography:
China and Asia

40. Risk of Mass Atrocities against the Rohingya Post-coup

Author:
Kyra Fox
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Rohingya—who experienced genocide prior to Burma’s 2021 military coup—are now at heightened risk of genocide and mass atrocities by the Burmese military, known as the Tatmadaw, and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization in Rakhine State. Other vulnerable groups include the broader Muslim community and ethnic and religious minorities in areas where ethnic armed organizations and/or People’s Defense Forces are fighting the Tatmadaw. To prevent mass atrocities, the Tatmadaw should cease attacks on civilians and cede power so Burma can move toward a more diverse, representative, and credible democracy. The US and other governments should conduct a full mass atrocity risk assessment, provide rapid and flexible funding to civil society organizations responding to the crisis, and constrain and condemn the Tatmadaw.
Topic:
Genocide, Coup, Atrocities, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar