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102. Global oil theft: impact and policy responses
- Author:
- Etienne Romsom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper, the first of two on global oil theft and fraud, discusses the prevalence, methods, and consequences of global oil theft, valued at US$133 billion per year and equivalent to 5–7 per cent of the global market for crude oil and petroleum fuels. However, the impact of oil theft is significantly larger than the value of theft itself. Government tax yields have been assessed for 30 developing countries associated with oil theft and found to be significantly lower than in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark study. Oil theft, smuggling, and illicit trade in petroleum products are often seen as lesser forms of crime than human trafficking, the drugs trade, smuggling of weapons, kidnapping, and terrorism. However, oil theft as an act of opportunity tends to evolve into organized crime and, if left unchecked, oil theft may interlink with other organized crime activities and groups. Actions against oil theft should target the transnational crime syndicates that continue to find ways to replicate their thefts by adapting their theft strategies and business models. However, there is a lack of basic data, including how much oil is stolen, how the stolen oil is transported, and how illicit oil transactions are conducted. The mixing of legal commercial operations with illegal oil theft activities and fraud obscures many oil theft crimes.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Oil, International Crime, and Tax Evasion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
103. Countering global oil theft: responses and solutions
- Author:
- Etienne Romsom
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This second of two papers on global oil theft discusses ways to reduce oil theft, misappropriation, and fraud. At US$133 billion per year, oil is the largest stolen natural resource globally, while fuel is the most smuggled natural resource. Oil theft equates to 5–7 per cent of the global market for crude oil and petroleum fuels. It is so engrained in the energy supply chain that thefts are priced in by traders and tolerated by many shipping companies as petty theft. Oil theft and related insecurity have substantial negative economic effects on developing countries, whether they produce oil or not. In 2012, non-oil-producing Benin saw a 28 per cent drop in taxable income after a spate of oil tanker hijacking incidents in the Gulf of Guinea in 2011. In Nigeria, the oil capacity shut-in and amount of oil deferred is more than twice the amount estimated as stolen, with a US$20 billion annual loss in petroleum profit tax—63 per cent of total government tax revenue in 2019. Organized oil crime syndicates are often transnational and conduct theft and fraud professionally, exploiting gaps in jurisdiction and adapting their practices when law enforcement becomes more effective. They evolve from ship piracy to stealing tanker cargoes to kidnapping tanker crews; from physical ransom of assets to digital hijacking via ransomware. The proceeds of oil theft often finance other organized crime, and it triggers violence against the community and in crime-on-crime activities. Twelve commonalities in oil theft and fraud have been identified that can direct international solutions, in three target areas: stolen oil volumes, stolen oil transport, and stolen oil money. Prosecution for acts of bribery offers opportunities for action: transport of or payment for illegal oil could constitute a bribe under the US Foreign Corrupt Practice Act if government officials were involved in the transaction or shipment. Bribe charges could be raised for paid ‘services’ that facilitate oil theft (through action or non-action).
- Topic:
- Corruption, Oil, Piracy, Cybersecurity, Fossil Fuels, Tax Evasion, and Theft
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
104. Corruption and crisis: do institutions matter?
- Author:
- Shrabani Saha and Kunal Sen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- While the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on lives and livelihoods are well understood, we know little about the effect of the pandemic for longer-term outcomes such as corruption. We look at the historical data on political and economic crises to assess what we can learn from the long-term effects of past crises on corruption. We hypothesize that strong rule of law institutions may ameliorate the possible adverse effects of political and economic crises on corruption. We test our hypotheses using panel data for over 100 countries during the years 1800– 2020. The results suggest heterogeneous effects depending on the type of crisis and how we measure it. We find that rule of law institutions can control corruption in cases of political violence and economic slowdown, but the effect is not seen for democracy breakdowns, coups, armed conflict and civil war, and economic crisis such as currency and debt crisis.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Rule of Law, Institutions, Data, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
105. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
106. Lebanon after the Elections
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
107. Democratic Backsliding in Indonesia
- Author:
- Luky Sandra Amalia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Democracy in Indonesia is in a state of overall decline according to many indicators. The indices commonly point to the issues of weakened democratic institutions, increased discrimination and violence against minorities, and reduced civil liberties in Indonesia for the democratic decline. Luky Sandra Amalia, Associate Researcher at Research Center for Politics, National Research and Innovation Agency, argues that corrupt political officials who have made efforts to weaken the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), increase in identity politics for political gain, and the reduced space for freedom of speech are some specific factors that have resulted in this democratic backsliding.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, Violence, Civil Liberties, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
108. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?
- Author:
- Niranjan Sahoo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
109. Tunisia’s Secret Apparatus: Why Ennahda’s Deputy Head was detained?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Tunisian Ennahda party on December 31, 2021 announced that the government security forces, acting on orders from the Interior Minister Taoufik Charfeddine have detained the Deputy Head Noureddine Bhiri and former Interior Ministry official Fathi Al-Baladi, and put them under house arrest.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Domestic Politics, and Ennahda Party
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
110. Fighting Corruption in the Arab World Should Be a U.S. Priority
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- In June of 2021, the Biden administration announced that it would be establishing the fight against corruption as a core concept in US national security and a pillar of its foreign policy.1 The following December, it launched the “US Strategy on Countering Corruption” as a “whole-of- government” initiative to, among other objectives, curb illicit financing, hold corrupt actors accountable, and improve diplomatic engagement and leverage foreign assistance in the pursuit of its policy goals.2 With the United States the premier actor in international politics and influence, the administration set out to formulate strategies, lay down markers, and implement policies that can help at least make a dent in the scourge of corruption around the world. Today, the task of fighting international corruption must include the countries of the Arab world, most of which are close political, economic, and strategic partners of the United States. Corruption in the region is eroding what little is left of social and political stability. From bribery to influence peddling, and from the use of public and official power for private gain to interference with the judiciary, the region’s corruption requires diligent internal and international efforts to address it. Democracy and economic development depend first on the striving of the region’s populations to ensure and protect their human rights, but also on an active role played by the United States government and its many institutions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, North Africa, and United States of America