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12. A Thick Cloud in the US-Iran Climate
- Author:
- Ali Akbar Dareini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Neither Iran nor the United States want a full-fledged military war but the Trump administration’s campaign of “maximum pressure” and Soleimani’s assassination mean the two foes remain on collision course.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
13. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam
- Author:
- Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt
14. The U.S.-Iran Showdown: Clashing Strategic Universes Amid a Changing Region
- Author:
- Ross Harrison
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and Iran are poised for a showdown. Understanding where we are today with this conflict and where we are likely to go in the future requires that we look at the conflicting strategic doctrines between the United States and Iran against a backdrop of a shifting Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
15. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability
- Author:
- Gerrit Kurtz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany
16. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
17. The New Secretary-General Report on Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Prevention Back on the Agenda
- Author:
- Paige Arthur, Céline Monnier, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the newly released secretary-general’s report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace contains, as usual, a wealth of examples of the steps that the United Nations (UN) system is taking to implement the sustaining peace resolutions. It also suggests a welcome and surprising finding: the conflict prevention agenda—once thought to be on life-support at the UN—has found new vigor. This briefing examines the new report, finding that it moves the prevention agenda forward in several key respects, from deepening political buy-in among member states and partners, to a greater embrace of conflict-sensitive approaches in the field. The briefing also identifies key opportunities for prevention to take root in the UN’s practice—including continued strengthening of expertise on prevention; deepening partnerships with the IFIs; leveraging links with violence reduction initiatives, especially relating to SDG16; focusing on area-based approaches to address multiple risks; and more action on humanitarian-development-peacebuilding nexus approaches.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peace, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18. Operationalizing the Prevention Agenda: Three Recommendations for the Peacebuilding Architecture Review
- Author:
- Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past 18 months, CIC has facilitated a series of discussions on the United Nations secretary-general’s agenda on preventing violent conflict. This options paper consolidates key recommendations for operationalizing the prevention agenda in light of the 2020 peacebuilding architecture review. In the paper, Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier present recommendations based on the consultations CIC has held across the UN system, as well as with national actors, to support the operationalization of the 2016 sustaining peace resolutions—with a specific focus on upstream prevention that is nationally led and sovereignty supporting. The paper examines options to increase national demand for prevention approaches, opportunities to build and consolidate the UN system’s expertise on prevention, and options to increase cross-pillar approaches, which are critical to the success of prevention initiatives.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
19. The interstate conflict potential of the information domain
- Author:
- Dumitru Minzarari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has not only triggered a crisis in public health and safety that engendered a significant economic fallout. The pandemic has also triggered an infodemic, one that sets the context for a significant spike in anti-NATO and anti-Western propaganda. Unless countermeasures are taken, the already deteriorating public opinion vis-a-vis the Alliance can be expected to worsen. Viewed individually, these two pandemic's outcomes have not critically threatened the Alliance; however, their combined effect could become a formidable challenge for NATO. Despite the measures taken, the pandemic is likely to continue exacerbating the frustrations among member states, further fraying the Alliance's unity. This, arguably, is the most immediate and concerning challenge facing NATO today.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, NATO, Public Health, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
20. Catalyst or crisis? COVID-19 and European Security
- Author:
- Claudia Major
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 crisis is teaching European countries that a pandemic can destabilize societies, the economy and political institutions to the same extent that military or hybrid threats do. However, while the pandemic's impact on European security seems massive, it is difficult to isolate the COVID-19 factor: what is uniquely pandemic-driven, and what is the result of other elements, such as the lack of US leadership, is not always easy to determine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Institutions, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
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