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51. The “latecomers” of Bougainville: The difficult completion of post-conflict disarmament processes

Author:
Theò Bajon
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Post-conflict disarmament processes inherently grapple with definitional challenges regarding definitive endpoints and measures of completion. This paper examines the phenomenon of delayed disarmament through the case study of so-called “latecomers” in Bougainville—ex-combatants who voluntarily surrendered their weapons following the cessation of formal demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration programming. This study proposes a behavioural model that conceptualises late comer decisionmaking dynamics pertaining to temporary small arms retention. Pivoting upon an iterated security dilemma framework, the model posits that contextual environmental stressors and temporal factors serve as key variables initially sustaining weapons possession in the absence of hostilities. However, this intermediate status carries risks of eventual escalation to renewed violence or protracted and arduous disarmament engagement. The latecomer case reveals the inherent fluidity and uncertainties surrounding delimitations of the disarmament process. Further interrogating ex-combatant dilemmas could strengthen post-conflict policy and practice. Fundamentally, this research demonstrates the enduring temporal ambiguities inherent to disarmament, highlighting the need for pluralistic understandings attentive to issues of indigeneity, humanity, and interpretive meaning central to sustainable peace-building.
Topic:
International Security, Disarmament, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

52. The EU’s Triple-Nexus Challenge: Climate, Conflict, Democracy

Author:
Richard Youngs, Ricardo Farinha, Jasper Linke, and Jeremy Wetterwald
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The EU’s fragmented approaches to the crises of climate change, conflict, and democracy fall short by not addressing the mutually reinforcing links between them. Brussels needs an integrated strategy to tackle the emerging three-way nexus and mitigate the vulnerabilities it creates.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe

53. The Rodrigo Duterte Policy to Bangsamoro in the Southern Philippines

Author:
Ali Maksum, Diar Abdi Hindiarto, and Reevany Bustami
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The restive Bangsamoro minority's struggle for rights is part of the enduring Muslim South - Christian North political conflict in the Philippines. The Philippine government's efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with the Muslim minority have hit deadlocks and mismatches between the goals of the two parties. Specifically, this study used content analysis to examine the Philippine government's strategy during the Rodrigo Duterte era in realising peace for this protracted conflict with the Bangsamoro minority group. The results showed that Rodrigo Duterte as achieved peace in the Bangsamoro through mediation and negotiation, tools used by the previous government. In addition, Rodrigo Duterte's commitment became more significant by granting regional autonomy rights to Bangsamoro. The critical element enabler of Duterte's strategy was the dual-track negotiations.
Topic:
Minorities, Conflict, Rodrigo Duterte, Muslims, and Bangsamoro
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

54. Wedged between East and West – The chances of an interest-based Hungarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine

Author:
Andrea Schmidt
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Hungarian foreign policy has been in the international spotlight, raising doubts about its direction. The purpose of this article is to highlight the contradictions between an interest-based and a value-based foreign policy. A theoretical introduction is followed by a brief analysis of the elements of a pragmatic foreign policy. At the same time, the second part of the paper presents a short case study from the Western Balkans. The Hungarian position on two countries, Kosovo and Serbia, will be analysed, not forgetting that these two countries are examples of the changes that have taken place in the relations between Hungary and Serbia. Despite earlier nationalist tensions, Serbia has become Hungary's almost sole ally in the region, putting the minority issue in the background and adopting a pragmatic approach. In this essay, we will also try to identify the considerations that guided Hungarian diplomacy in its position towards the West. Finally, we will discuss the extent to which the original goal of "occupying Brussels" was realistic and the consequences of Hungary's pragmatic foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, and Western Balkans

55. Positioned for Peacebuilding? The Complex Role of the Catholic Church in the Venezuelan Conflict

Author:
David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Catholic Church would seem to be perfectly positioned to facilitate peace in the Venezuelan conflict. It is the country’s most respected institution, and Pope Francis has been personally interested in peacemaking in the region. Furthermore, there is precedent in the region. In Colombia, since the 1980s, the Catholic Church has played a key role in mobilizing the population for peace, supporting the peace process directly, and through involvement in issues of transitional justice. In this article, we briefly describe the peacebuilding activities of the Colombian Catholic Church, more extensively describe the activities of the Venezuelan Catholic Church, and then compare the two to understand the particular challenges the Venezuelan Church faces. We suggest that while the Venezuelan Church faces a similar political opportunity structure as the Colombian Church, it does so with less mobilizing strength and with a lesser ability to provide a clear ideological alternative to the conflict.
Topic:
Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Catholic Church, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

56. The Simple Job of Giving Torment,The Grupo Élite: A Death Squad of the Guatemalan Army

Author:
Manolo E. Vela Castañeda
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes the Grupo Élite, a death squad within the Guatemalan Presidential General Staff, whose members received orders from the intelligence sector, particularly the Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Guatemala’s Defense Ministry. This was a specialized unit charged with special intelligence operations against dissidents. Such operations included surveillance, infiltration into opposition groups, arrests, interrogations by means of torture, sexual violence, extrajudicial executions, and forced disappearances. This article examines seven patterns that serve to characterize this particular unit and its members, including: 1) the command structure of the squad; 2) sociodemographic profiles of its members; 3) methods of recruitment; 4) the job description of members as part of an internal secret code; 5) the use of nicknames as pseudonyms; (6) careers and medals; and 7) careers after leaving the squad. Within the theater of war operations in Guatemala’s civil war, few actors rival the cruelty, perversity and sadism that characterized the actions of the country’s death squads.
Topic:
Corruption, Conflict, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

57. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection

Author:
Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

58. Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power

Author:
David Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, and Samantha Wong
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China’s rapidly improving nuclear capabilities and expanding nuclear arsenal underpin its recent rise as a nuclear peer power. For the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, the uncertainty of China’s intentions behind this nuclear expansion poses a major challenge. It necessitates a revisit of the fundamental assumptions underpinning US and allied planning and preparation for a potential conflict with China. The 2022 White House National Security Strategy1 and National Defense Strategy2 identified China as the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological wherewithal to reshape the international order. The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted how China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad.3 The report further assessed that Beijing will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade.4 China also sustains extensive and ambitious space operations. According to the Department of Defense’s 2022 China Military Power Report5, as of 2021, China’s 260 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites were the largest collection of such constellations globally other than the United States’. The transformation of China’s military capabilities no longer represents the linear, stepwise modernization of an outmoded military that characterized the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for the past two decades. Since the PLA launched its major internal command and service restructuring in 2015, previous doctrinal and teaching publications acquired and exploited by Western analysts are out of date and likely declining in relevance. By extension, much of the Western analysis of PLA plans, operations, and concepts of deterrence and escalation control are also likely to be out of date. China’s rapid expansion of strategic warfighting capabilities (i.e., nuclear forces, space/counterspace systems, and cyber/information operations) represents tremendous discontinuity in the pace, scope, and scale of the PLA’s transformation, necessitating a major US reassessment of Chinese strategy, doctrine, and warfighting operations. The commonly accepted notion that deliberate Chinese nuclear force modernization is characterized as “running faster to stay in the same place” to sustain a minimal retaliatory posture is assessed to have evolved. China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel6 its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests. As a step in this reassessment, this project reevaluated China’s strategy, doctrine, and warfighting concepts in light of its ongoing rapid transformation into a peer nuclear power, examined implications of this assessment for future US contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region, and produced several actionable findings and recommendations for US government decision-makers that can be addressed in the next five- to ten-year horizon.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

59. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza

Author:
Perrihan Al-Riffai
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
Topic:
Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

60. Food Wars: Conflict, Hunger, and Globalization, 2023

Author:
Marc Cohen and Ellen Messer
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Most wars of the late 20th and early 21st centuries have been “food wars”: food and hunger were used as weapons, food and food-related water and energy infrastructure were damaged intentionally or incidentally, and food insecurity persisted as a legacy of conflict destructiveness. Frequently, food insecurity, in turn, is a trigger or underlying cause of conflict. This paper analyzes 54 active conflict, refugee-hosting, and conflict legacy countries with populations in 2023 facing “crisis-level” acute food insecurity, i.e., at Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 3 or higher. In total, nearly 278 million people in these countries faced crisis-level hunger in 2023, accounting for 99% of the global population at IPC 3+ (281.6 million people). Analysis indicates that war-displacement-hunger crises occur in countries that continue to rely heavily on primary product exports. Paradoxically, peacebuilding efforts have often assumed that economic liberalization offers the best or only pathway to sustainable peace. Yet struggle for control over fungible primary commodities can fund more violence, increased inequality, continued instability, and the risk of renewed conflict. Agricultural export commodities are important sources of revenue for smallholder farmers and governments in conflict-affected, food-insecure countries. The conflict implications of export- and food-crop value chains are therefore crucial for future food-wars policy discussions and actions. Some efforts seek to link export crops to efforts to achieve peace, sustainable livelihoods, and environmental restoration. Other proposed solutions focus on adopting more holistic national development strategies, including food-systems approaches that protect and promote the right to food and livelihood security, as well as policy approaches and frameworks that might more effectively consider conflict, globalization, and climate change in food and nutrition policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Hunger, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus