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21. The Global Stocktake at COP28: Ensuring a Successful Outcome

Author:
Masooma Rahmaty and Gabriela Bonina
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
COP28 marks a pivotal point in the global response to the climate crisis, where countries will have the first opportunity to review and take stock of the Paris Agreement through the Global Stocktake (GST). This presents an opportunity to accelerate climate action and close the gaps needed to keep global warming below 1.5°C. To ensure a successful political outcome from the GST, the parties at COP28 could focus on the following: Keep 1.5°C alive through commitments in nationally determined contributions: Governments, especially major emitters and future major emitters, need to commit to ambitious measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The GST outcome should provide specific guidance and actionable suggestions to countries as they prepare to submit their new or updated NDCs in 2025. Phase out fossil-fuel production: Parties should agree to call for a sustained and widespread phase-out of fossil-fuel production, including the elimination of subsidies for domestic and foreign fossil-fuel extraction. The goal should be to achieve net-zero carbon emissions as close as possible to 2040 (for developed countries) and 2050 (for emerging economies). An ambitious GST outcome would also include individual and collective commitments to triple global capacity for renewable energy by 2030. Price emissions: Parties should go beyond making pledges and develop mechanisms and frameworks that incentivize action. Carbon pricing is one such mechanism. A global carbon-pricing floor should differentiate between developed and developing countries, and the price should be set based on the markets rather than on a distinction between high and low emitters. Implementing a global carbon-pricing strategy could foster cooperation between developed and developing countries to safeguard the planet’s climate. Improve the quality and quantity of climate finance: Getting countries out of debt, especially those vulnerable to climate impacts, should be a priority. Donor countries can also explore innovative strategies for utilizing the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights to provide grants instead of putting countries more in debt. Bridgetown 2.0 highlights a path toward reforming the global financial system to better serve developing countries through currency exchange guarantees, disaster clauses for debt deals, and reforms to multilateral development banks to increase lending. Capitalize the Loss and Damage Fund: Now that countries have agreed to establish the Loss and Damage Fund, they should make pledges and pursue innovative finance, including taxes and levies on shipping, air travel, financial transactions, and fossil fuel extraction.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, Paris Agreement, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Refining the Global Goal on Adaptation ahead of COP28

Author:
Anna Cabre, Olivia Fielding, and Michael Weisberg
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
As the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) approaches, it is increasingly crucial to understand and develop clear actions for not only mitigation but also adaptation. While mitigation has the clear numerical target of limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, adaptation is a complex concept that cannot be captured in a single figure. Ahead of COP28, there is a need for conceptual clarity as to what exactly the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) aims to achieve and how it can be globally applicable when adaptation is so often locally implemented. One way to clarify the GGA is to adopt well-being as the ultimate outcome toward which countries should be working. Well-being is a state where one can pursue one’s goals and thrive. This requires having adequate physical health, water, food, and a healthy environment, even as the impacts of climate change worsen. Adaptation actions that further this goal should be assessed by their effects on present and future human and environmental well-being. Whenever possible, these actions should be both transboundary, reaching across national borders and administrative or jurisdictional boundaries, and transformational, addressing the systemic root causes of climate impacts and working toward a more stable, flexible, and equitable future. This policy paper lays out the various climate risks that affect each of the four pillars of the GGA: human health, water security, food security, and biodiversity. It then details adaptation actions that can be taken in response to these risks, as well as indicators for improvement. While each step of the adaptation policy cycle should be robust and well-funded, these four pillars are the areas where progress is most crucial to achieving the GGA. When crafting a framework for transformational adaptation in these four areas, negotiators and technical experts can draw on existing, agreed-upon frameworks and indicators that point the world toward the goal of well-being for people and planet.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Water, Food Security, Adaptation, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Global incentive mechanism to protect standing forests

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The planet’s future hinges on safeguarding the remaining tropical forests. These forests, crucial for reducing global temperature by at least 1°C, are home for two-thirds of global biodiversity and absorb 29% of the world’s annual CO2 emissions. In this Global Futures Bulletin, we present a global incentive mechanism designed to enhance, not just replace, carbon markets, and to more effectively compensate those committed to conserving forest. The core concept involves a simple and intuitive set of new incentives, enticing individuals, organizations, or nations to cease deforestation in return for yearly payments per hectare of preserved forest. Funding would come from multiple sources, including combined funding mechanisms from philanthropies, bilateral and multilateral funds, and institutional investors. This mechanism aims to cover the opportunity cost of the immediate land-use benefits from forest degradation, such as livestock farming and monoculture agriculture. Nations that possess these vital ecosystems should be at the forefront of this movement. Brazil, with 59% of its territory covered by forests and set to host COP30 in 2025, is poised to be a key player in developing a global financial framework that secures a sustainable future for the planet and its people.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Carbon Emissions, Forest, Biodiversity, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The Asian region is warming faster than the global average, making it comparatively vulnerable to the effects of climate change. At the same time, Asia remains a disproportionate contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, with its annual emissions now accounting for more than half of the global total. Yet countries are reluctant to make ambitious climate pledges unless they are confident that they can secure the finance needed to implement such targets. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic, unsustainable debt, and climate change itself have complicated the amount of finance that will be needed and countries’ ability to access it. In light of these challenges, a new report on behalf of the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero articulates a regional vision for Asia’s unique climate finance needs and what needs to be done to address them. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28 identifies priority actions to assemble the finance to get Asia to net zero by mid-century while empowering the region to prosper and thrive through the clean transition. The 28th United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) next month will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Dubai on behalf of the UN’s Asia-Pacific Group. Action to meet Asia’s climate finance needs could help unlock the ambition levels needed to set the world on track, especially as countries look to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 with targets out to 2035 and even 2040. Lack of finance should not be a barrier to Asia’s climate action. Instead, sufficient finance could be the key to unlocking the “course correction” needed for Asia to help the world meet the Paris Agreement’s goals — and for ensuring a more sustainable, livable, and interconnected region and world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

25. Navigating climate change challenges amidst ambitious green policies in the Gulf countries

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The United Arab Emirates is hosting COP28 in Expo City Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023, the largest yearly gathering dedicated to tackling the phenomena of climate change, an urgent global crisis that transcends national borders and necessitates resolute international cooperation to prevent the harm it causes. Undoubtedly, the UAE's hosting of the conference, which has a long track record of efforts in combatting the effects of climate change and investing in clean energy, will provide momentum for Gulf states to lead climate action efforts at the regional and international levels. However, it is untrue that the issue of climate change has risen to the top of the Gulf states' priority list solely because of the COP28 summit. This has received much attention for over a decade because Gulf nations are among the countries most affected by climate change, so they must be at the forefront of countries fighting to prevent it.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Crisis Management, Energy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

26. Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa: The Road to COP28

Author:
Hanen Keskes and Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Oil and gas producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) must plan for the long-term impacts that the global energy transition will have on their fiscal systems and adapt public investment plans in the pursuit of long-term economic transformation. MENA countries seeking international climate finance to support energy transition must establish a track record of developing and implementing viable green energy projects. MENA governments must center energy transitions around justice, fairness and equity for all. A just energy transition process must include two types of justice: procedural justice, which relates to the extent to which people are involved in the process; and distributive justice, which represents the extent to which the positive and negative effects of energy transition are fairly distributed. Governments in the Global South must ensure that South-North cooperation for renewable energy production addresses domestic energy needs, before directing excess production to export.
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

27. The Dual Mandate of Food Exporting States: India’s Roles in the Global Food Order

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Criticisms of India’s rice export ban must be balanced with the recognition of its responsibility to ensure food affordability for its constituents. Finding a middle ground that addresses India’s predicament could help to prevent the impending international food price crisis from escalating.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Exports, Affordability, Rice, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

28. Operationalization of the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage: Road to COP 27

Author:
Hafiz Khan, S. M. Saify Iqbal, Fahad Hossain, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
The Santiago Network on Loss and Damage (SNLD) was established at COP25/CMA2, “as part of the Warsaw International Mechanism,…for averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, to catalyse the technical assistance of relevant organizations, bodies, networks and experts, for the implementation of relevant approaches at the local, national and regional level, in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change” . At COP26/CMA3, Parties agreed to the six functions of SNLD. Furthermore, at COP26, Parties agreed to continue working to design effective institutional arrangements, operational modalities, and financial arrangements for SNLD to deliver its functions efficiently through subsequent SB negotiations, with a decision to be made at COP27/CMA4 in 2022.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus