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91. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations

Author:
Dimitri Minic
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The Russian army is very critical of its war in Ukraine. Not just of the first phase of the failed special military operation (SVO), which was inspired by the theorization of bypassing, but also of the strategic deterrence phase that preceded it. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations Download 0.98 Mo Russian military theorists have commented on the profound lack of preparation not just for the SVO, but also—in many areas—for the heterotelic war the SVO has become. The Russian army’s weaknesses vis-à-vis the Ukrainian army are generally, and sometimes quite directly, recognized. The Russian military elites have made numerous recommendations for improving Russia’s military performance, primarily focusing on the ground and aerospace forces. Meanwhile, the Russian army has mostly adapted (more or less successfully) to the difficulties it has encountered in the last year and a half in Ukraine. Although the Putin regime is authoritarian and intent on reducing freedom of expression in Russian society, the existence and tolerance of a certain amount of truth-telling at this level of the military apparatus indicate that the Russian army’s and state’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

92. Actor Profile: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (Support Group for Islam and Muslims, or JNIM) is a Salafi-jihadist group and the Sahelian branch of the transnational al-Qaeda organization. The armed group’s immediate parent organization is the Algeria-based al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), whose roots emanate from the Algerian civil war of the 1990s. JNIM’s genealogy dates back more than two decades to the founding of AQIM and its predecessor, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), and their implantation in the Sahara and Sahel.1 Since then, the Sahelian insurgency has continued to evolve through splits, mergers, and group and alliance formations, with JNIM emerging from the March 2017 merger of Ansar Dine, AQIM’s Sahara region, al-Murabitun, and Katiba Macina. Each of these groups shares a common ideology and strategic objectives, but exhibits distinct profiles and characteristics in terms of composition, local interests, and operational focus, which to some extent continue to influence JNIM’s activity.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Al Qaeda, Salafism, and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

93. The Twilight of US Dollar Hegemony and the Coming Multipolar World

Author:
Armin Krishnan and Hanna Samir Kassab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The hegemony of the dollar is fundamental to the primacy of the United States in the international system, perhaps even more so than US military superiority. The US government can afford to spend several times more on its armed forces than its military competitors because it has the ability to sustain seemingly unlimited levels of debt thanks to the relative strength of the US dollar. Other nations have been willing to buy US debt and hold large reserves of dollars, which has kept the value of the dollar reasonably stable compared to other currencies. The authors argue that there are clear signs that the dollar's hegemony is in decline and that this could lead to a multipolar world in which the United States is just one great power among others. The article will discuss the reasons why the US dollar is so important to US power, why the dollar's attractiveness is declining and how the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Russia in response to the Russian incursion into Ukraine may have inadvertently accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world.
Topic:
Debt, Sanctions, Armed Forces, Currency, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

94. U.S. Coast Guard Academy Admissions Process Assessment

Author:
David Chu, Erik Bergrud, Jennifer Brinkerhoff, Michael Dominguez, and Kyle Farmbry
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
The U.S. Coast Guard Academy (USCGA), located in New London, CT, is a four-year, tuition-free federal service academy that prepares its cadets physically, intellectually, and ethically for careers in the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). Graduates earn a commission as an Ensign and are obligated to serve five years in the service. Cadets can earn a Bachelor of Science degree in one of nine engineering and professional majors while also participating in intercollegiate and club athletics, music, community service, and other extracurricular activities. Section 8272 and Section 8274 of the Coast Guard Academy Improvement Act, part of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2021, required the Secretary of Homeland Security to contract with the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) to conduct two discrete one-year studies focusing on the USCGA. The first study, completed in February 2022, assessed the USCGA’s cultural competency. This study assessed USCGA’s admission processes and concluded in May 2023. The admissions assessment included: A study of the process USCGA uses to identify candidates for recruitment, recruit applicants, assist applicants in the application process, evaluate applicants, and make admissions decisions. A discussion of the consideration during the admissions process of diversity, including race, ethnicity, gender, religion, sexual orientation, socioeconomic background, and geographic origin. An overview of the admissions processes at other Federal service academies, including a discussion of diversity and analysis of how the congressional nominations requirement impacts those processes and overall student demographics. A determination regarding how a congressional nomination requirement for CGA admissions could impact diversity among the student body and the ability of the USCG to effectively carry out the Service’s primary duties.​ Recommendations for improving USCGA admissions processes, including whether a congressional nominations process should be integrated, and for restructuring the admissions office to be headed by a civilian with significant relevant higher education recruitment experience.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Higher Education, Coast Guard, and Admissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

95. US land power in the Indo-Pacific: opportunities for the Australian army

Author:
Marcus Schultz
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The US Army is undergoing its most consequential period of transformation since the end of the Cold War. The re-emergence of great power competition and a deteriorating strategic environment is forcing the US Army to rethink not just its approach to land warfare but also its future role alongside the US Marine Corps in key regions around the globe. In the Indo-Pacific, this doctrinal and structural transformation is informing a new approach to joint exercises and 'no gaps' defence collaboration to deter Chinese aggression. These developments hold important insights for key US allies and partners, including Australia and Japan. Australia’s new unifying strategic approach to national defence and the high degree of convergence this has with US defence strategy offers a timely window of opportunity for the Australian Army to explore the combined use of land power in a heighten threat environment. This work should be mutually reinforcing and constitute part of Australia’s approach to managing risk and threats and balancing its contributions to deterrence. This report aims to provide the Australian defence establishment and military leaders with well-considered options for engaging the US on matters of mutual interest. The report provides an overview of the US Army’s changing force posture and approach to land warfare, followed by a brief analysis of its evolving role as an essential enabler of joint force operations in a maritime environment. The report then explores the US Army’s ‘campaigning’ activities in the region and its efforts to increase allied and partner capacity for high-end military contingencies in all domains. Finally, the report highlights opportunities for the Australian Army to enhance interoperability with US land forces in a deepening US-Australia alliance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

96. An Australian maritime strategy: resourcing the Royal Australian Navy

Author:
Jennifer Parker
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia is a maritime nation. The sheer scale of our sovereign maritime territory and responsibilities, our dependence on maritime trade for our prosperity and the increasing value of activity in the maritime environment must all be recognised in our maritime strategy. In a highly interconnected world, we face fundamental vulnerabilities from the realities of our geostrategic situation. In this report, the author argues that the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) lacks the resources to adequately protect Australia’s vast maritime interests. This concern isn’t unique to our time: maritime strategists have long lamented that, despite being uniquely an island, a continent and a nation, Australia struggles to understand the central importance of a maritime strategy to our defence and security. The underappreciation of Australia’s dependence on the maritime domain and that domain’s significance for the nation’s prosperity and security has consistently produced a RAN that’s overlooked and under-resourced. In this report, the author examines whether the bipartisan thesis of a structural change in our strategic circumstances, as articulated in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR), also requires a structural change and an expansion of the RAN. The author argues that both are needed, through both an increased surface-combatant fleet that’s designed on the principle of a balanced fleet and a review of the RAN’s structure. Such a structural review should include consideration of bold changes, including reconsideration of a fleet auxiliary, a coastguard or forward basing of assets to support the workforce requirements of an expanded fleet. This report looks mainly at the structure of the surface-combatant fleet, noting the recent finalisation of the surface-combatant fleet review. In the light of the Australian Government’s consideration of that review’s recommendations, the report makes eight recommendations for government consideration. The author also argues that the status quo of 11–12 major surface combatants is insufficient for Australia. That was the case even when the force was structured around the concept of Australia having 10 years warning time of military conflict. That problem has become more acute today, given the new era of strategic competition and the capability and size of our potential adversaries, in particular China, as recognised in the DSR. The report recommends that a major surface-combatant fleet structure of 16–20 ships is needed.
Topic:
National Security, Armed Forces, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Australia

97. Los Emiratos Árabes Unidos: ¿una potencia militar emergente en Oriente Medio?

Author:
Santiago Ott
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
En el año 2014, el periódico norteamericano The Washington Post publicó un artículo que versaba en torno a las capacidades militares y el rol desempeñado por las fuerzas armadas de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos (EAU) en diversas operaciones de combate en Medio Oriente. Según reza la nota, el por entonces general retirado del Cuerpo de Marines, James Mattis, junto con otros oficiales de los servicios armados de los Estados Unidos, habían comenzado a dirigirse al pequeño estado del Golfo Pérsico bajo el apodo "little Sparta," en clara referencia a la antigua ciudad-estado griega conocida por sus destacadas tradiciones marciales. Mientras que para algunos esta etiqueta puede resultar exagerada, la misma refleja en buena medida el espíritu que ha tenido la política exterior y de seguridad internacional llevada a cabo por la federación en los últimos años.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East and UAE

98. Defence Innovation and Women’s Participation in the Armed Forces: An Analysis of PISFLEMB

Author:
Natalia Diniz Schwether and Carlos Eduardo Franco Azevedo
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Throughout history, on several occasions, technological advances have driven fundamental changes in the defence sector. The increasing availability and technological dependence led to the redefinition of pre-established functions, the modification of the main missions, and even the rearticulation of traditional values ​​of the military institution. From this perspective, the article aims to answer the following question: in what way did the Project for the Integration of Female Personnel in the Line of Military Warfare Education (PISFLEMB) promote innovation in the Brazilian Armed Forces? It is argued that the participation of women in a traditionally male institution is responsible for generating organizational innovation, both in values and conduct. Data will be collected through official documents and primary sources as modelled for analysis of military innovations. The study is distinguished by the understanding that innovations in the defence sector are an opportunity for transformation and a stimulus for changing patterns of conduct.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Women, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

99. China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign

Author:
Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
With its fielding of the PCH191 multiple rocket launcher (MRL) and its variety of long-range precision munitions, the PLA Army (PLAA) has become arguably the most important contributor of campaign and tactical firepower during a joint island landing campaign against Taiwan. No longer simply the primary source of amphibious and air assault forces, the PLAA is now capable of using its multiple battalions of PCH191 MRLs to support maritime dominance, the joint firepower strike, and ground forces landing on Taiwan’s shores and in depth. The Chinese ordnance industry has developed multiple low-cost rockets, an anti-ship cruise missile, and a tactical missile to be used with the PCH191, as well as its export variant, the AR3, including munitions that can quickly and precisely strike targets in the Taiwan Strait, across the island, and beyond. Recent demonstrations of the PCH191 during PLA training events and Eastern Theater Command response actions to politically charged visits, in addition to the fielding of new reconnaissance assets capable of providing targeting and battle damage assessments to the MRL, make it clear the Army intends to use the system to achieve effects in a future Taiwan crisis that formerly would have been the responsibility of other PLA services.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Weapons, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

100. Withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq

Author:
Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The war between Israel and Hamas has increased the threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East, particularly for the 3,400 personnel in Syria and Iraq. Since October 7, 2023, dozens of U.S. troops have been injured in attacks perpetrated by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries, at times resulting in U.S. retaliatory strikes. Defensive measures and luck have prevented U.S. fatalities thus far. But U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are at significant risk as long as they remain deployed there. If a U.S. ground presence served a core security interest, that risk might be reasonable. But there is no good reason to risk U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS’s capabilities have been degraded, capable local actors eagerly hunt the group’s remnants, and the United States can still strike from long distance, if necessary, without local bases. Instead of enhancing U.S. security, the U.S. force presence in Syria and Iraq pointlessly risks war with Iran. Sending additional troops to the Middle East compounds the problem and grants U.S. adversaries in the region added leverage by giving them the ability to threaten U.S. forces. The added danger to U.S. forces is one more reason to withdraw from Syria and Iraq as a step toward de-prioritizing the Middle East more generally.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America