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51. ASEAN Digital Community 2045

Author:
Lili Yan Ing, Yessi Vadila, Ivana Markus, and Livia Feliciani Nazara
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has undergone significant development in digitalisation. The rapid digital transformation in ASEAN, however, has brought forth risks and challenges encompassing data security, cybersecurity, competition, and the digital divide. To effectively address these challenges and leverage the potential of the digital realm, ASEAN developed nine frameworks during 2016–2023. Yet, the focus is primarily on digital trade. We suggest that ASEAN embrace digital transformation by establishing the ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045. This vision could provide guidance to Member States, enabling them to overcome regional challenges and unlock their digital potential. It is crucial for ASEAN to nurture digital development across the three key pillars: political-security, economic, and socio-cultural dimensions. The three pillars should be built on four fundamental elements: data governance, value-added enhancement, improved digital connectivity, and digital inclusivity. Through the establishment of ADC 2045, ASEAN could position itself as a significant player in the global digital economy while ensuring that digital transformation aligns with its sustainable and inclusive development agenda.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Investment, Innovation, Trade, ASEAN, Connectivity, and Competition
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

52. Accelerating AI in ASEAN: Addressing Disparities, Challenges, and Regional Policy Imperatives

Author:
Ikumo Isono and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is attracting significant attention worldwide in 2023 because of its potential to transform economies and societies. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must accelerate the debate on AI for five compelling reasons. First, narrowing the gaps in AI readiness within ASEAN is essential to share the benefits of AI equitably. Second, there are concerns that rapid advances in AI could result in job loss, and retraining is needed. Third, AI systems must be developed from an ASEAN-centric perspective to overcome prejudice and align AI with ASEAN values. Fourth, as developed countries implement AI regulations, ASEAN needs to consider the need for its own regional policies. Finally, now is the perfect time to discuss the positioning of AI in the regional framework as ASEAN’s digital integration initiative progresses. The paper discusses the significance of AI in 2023, the challenges in ASEAN, the need for its own policies, and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Regulation, Human Capital, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

53. Evolution of the World Order and Russia’s Ideas About the Outside World

Author:
A. Bogaturov and O. Lebedeva
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
The idea of the outside world and the role that Russia plays in it has undergone radical changes in Moscow’s official worldviews since 2014. The degradation of the international security situation indicates a deep crisis in the existing world order, which was formed in the spirit of the US’s unipolar hegemony after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Attempts are being made to turn the UN, the only universal platform for reaching collective decisions on an inclusive and equal basis, into a tool of the collective West for pressuring “revisionist states.” The decline in the culture of global-level dialogue leads not only to the aggravation of military-political conflicts but also to the inability to effectively respond to new challenges and transnational threats.
Topic:
Partnerships, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Global Focus

54. Coalitions of the Week: BRICS, ASEAN, the G20

Author:
Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Supreme leader Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend (September 9-10) — thus nullifying the possibility of a meeting with top Western leaders including American counterpart President Joe Biden — is symptomatic of the isolation that China is facing on the international stage. Instead, Xi is sending Premier Li Qiang, not only to New Delhi but also to a series of meetings between Western and Asian powerhouses, including between the United States, Japan, and the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Jakarta, Indonesia. ASEAN members seem eager to seize the opportunity to promote free trade and high-tech cooperation with the United States and its Western allies, agreeing this week to inject more funds into projects under the U.S.—ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (InvestASEAN.org, September 7; The White House, September 5). By contrast, China’s recent business ties with ASEAN nations has been dominated by a continuous exodus of multinational corporations moving production bases from China and into countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Xi’s absence has raised eyebrows, particularly due to the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary has pulled out all the stops when it comes to expanding the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) clout on the global stage, even while ignoring worsening socio-economic conditions at home, such as rising youth unemployment, declining exports and consumer spending, and disappointing new home sales. Deemed a crypto-Maoist by China’s critics, the CCP chief remains convinced that, in the words of both Mao and himself, “the East is rising and the West is declining,” conditions which would allow the PRC to seize the geopolitical high ground given “opportunities that only come once in a century” (Gov.cn, June 23 ; Xinhua, March 23).
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, G20, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Asia

55. Playing the Long Game in the South China Sea

Author:
Andrew Mantong
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the South China Sea (SCS), as indeed the wider Indo-Pacific, the EU is facing a deepening strategic rivalry between China and the US. In the SCS, China has been able to create physical realities in defiance of international law by constructing artificial islands in the attempt to sustain its claims to the disputed Spratly and Paracel archipelagos as well as expand its military projection deep into international waters. The US is still the predominant security player in the Indo-Pacific, but its military presence has an increasingly hard time shoring up American power in the SCS. The security dilemma between the great powers is threatening rules-based multilateralism, which runs deep in the veins of the EU and to a great extent defines its international posture.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

56. EU–ASEAN: Shared Objectives, Severed Trust

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
After 45 years of diplomatic dialogue, EU-ASEAN relations continue to dawdle, lacking real ambition or political will from either side to invest more in the relationship. Even after a recent upgrade in the relationship to a strategic partnership (and continued pressure from the business communities on both sides to do more),the potentialof the EU-ASEAN relationship is still not well understood by policymakers. Due to factors that are largely outside of EU’s control, the region-to-region engagement has settled on incrementalism on technical issues (like air transport) or selective bilateral engagement on trade and digital economy. Meanwhile, China has been making inroads with its Belt and Road Initiative; Japan leans on CPTPP and bilateral assistance, and the Biden administration has launched the IPEF. Due to the many trade disputes, it was no surprise that ASEAN granted strategic partner status to even Russia and New Zealand before considering the EU. The palm oil conflict with ASEANs largest democracies (Indonesia, Malaysia) has been allowed to escalate to a point where it can no longer be compartmentalised to a trade issue. The absence of actual economic injury among Malaysian and Indonesian farmers also proves that the palm oil conflict is not an economic issue that can be settled financially, but about high politics and a matter of principles. New EU legislation on due diligence for deforestation and corporate sustainability, market regulation on forced labour, carbon border adjustment measures, foreign subsidies, and data governance are likely to result in further retaliation and escalation. Rightly or wrongly, ASEAN democracies do not perceive that the EU has yet earned the right to be heard. Hence, the EU needs to be aware of how it projects its values and interests in the region, understanding that it does not command moral authority; or that ASEAN operates differently based on personal engagement between leaders and shared interests. Conversely, ASEAN leaders should not simply write off EU-engagement as a middle-management preoccupation due to its technical nature, but rather see the EU as a counterweight in the region. ASEAN as a collective can serve as a strategic and transformative instrument. Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and even London, are all shifting their focus to the region, concluding that the race for influence over the Indo-Pacific ultimately boils down to influence over ASEAN.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

57. Timor-Leste’s uncertain future

Author:
Parker Novak
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper intends to start a conversation about a broad yet crucial question: what does the future hold for Timor-Leste? And in turn, what does that mean for the Indo-Pacific region? It examines key challenges confronting the country over the next decade, with a focus on how economics, governance, and the transnational issues of climate change, pandemic preparedness, and geopolitics will impact the small island nation. Timor-Leste has accomplished a great deal over the past two decades but faces headwinds that, if left unaddressed, could undo much of what it has achieved. Its future is not preordained, and decisions made by Asia’s youngest nation over the coming years will determine the direction it takes. Australia and Indonesia loom large in this equation, and they will certainly have a vested interest in the course Timor-Leste chooses to take.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Economy, Occupation, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Timor-Leste

58. Where next for the Australia–South Korea partnership?

Author:
Afeeya Akhand and Alex Bristow
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The strategic partnership between Australia and South Korea holds great potential in an increasingly challenging time. The two nations have many common strategic interests and both can rightly claim to be regional powers. However, the relationship remains a relative underperformer compared with other key regional relationships and has suffered from inconsistency. When Canberra’s contemporary relationship with Seoul receives attention from Australian analysts, it tends to be framed largely in the context of the threats posed by Pyongyang. While some uncertainties remain over the long-term trajectory of South Korea’s foreign and security policy due to concerns that Seoul’s current vision is tied to the Yoon government as opposed to being embedded in longer-term statecraft, the structural basis for deeper engagement between Seoul and Canberra is sound. Investing in the relationship is in both nations’ interests. Building bureaucratic and commercial frameworks for cooperation now would help ensure that bilateral strategic alignment is less prone to future changes in government. This paper assesses the Australia–South Korea partnership through the three-pillar structure outlined in the 2021 Australia-South Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and offers recommendations for strengthening the relationship. These recommendations include furthering strategic cooperation by incrementally aligning key trilateral formats, developing bilateral cooperation in critical technologies including those relevant to AUKUS Pillar 2, and nurturing collaboration with respect to the Indo-Pacific clean energy transition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, Artificial Intelligence, ASEAN, AUKUS, and ANZUS
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Australia

59. Regional Overview: Building Partnerships Amidst Major Power Competition

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Major power competition was the primary topic du jure at virtually all of this trimester’s major multilateral gatherings, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuing to serve as a litmus test—a test many participants struggled to avoid taking. It was clear which side of the fence the G7 leaders stood on; Putin’s invasion was soundly condemned and Sino-centric warning bells were again gently sounded. At the BRICS Summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sans the US), those alarms were clearly muted, as they were at the ASEAN Regional Forum, at which foreign ministers from all three were present. Headlines from the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue focused on the meeting that did not occur, as China’s defense minister pointedly refused to meet with his US counterpart. At the ASEAN-ISIS’ Asia-Pacific Roundtable, participants lamented the impact of major power tensions on ASEAN unity, even though ASEAN’s main challenges are internal ones that predate the downturn in China-US relations. Meanwhile, Beijing and Washington both expended considerable effort at these and other events throughout the reporting period fortifying and expanding their partnerships, even as many neighbors struggled not to choose sides or to keep a foot in both camps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Partnerships, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

60. The Paradox of ASEAN Way in Marine Plastic Pollution: The Challenge of Compliance Among Member States

Author:
Ria Wierma Putri and Febryani Sabatira
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
ASEAN countries are considered significant contributors to global pollution, particularly concerning marine plastic pollution (MPP), which has emerged as a critical concern in the region. To address this issue, ASEAN has established three specific instruments: the Bangkok Declaration on Combating Marine Debris in 2019, the ASEAN Framework of Action on Marine Debris 2019, and the ASEAN Regional Action Plan for Combating Marine Debris in the ASEAN Member States 2021-2025. However, being soft laws, these instruments lack legally binding force, allowing states to choose not to implement them effectively and promptly, leading to low compliance rates. The root cause of this compliance challenge lies in the ASEAN Way’s foundational principle, which promotes non-intervention, resulting in non-legally binding instruments. This raises genuine concerns about the potential inefficacy of implementing ASEAN instruments. Nonetheless, the issue of marine plastic pollution is considered a contemporary environmental catastrophe in the region, demanding Member States to prioritize compliance. Hence, this study delves into two key issues: (1) the ASEAN Way and compliance and (2) regional mechanisms to bolster Member States’ adherence in combating marine plastic pollution.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Oceans and Seas, Pollution, ASEAN, and Compliance
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia