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71. Military-protester relations: Insights from nonviolence research

Author:
Brian Martin
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Military forces are sometimes called out to confront unarmed civilian protesters, a contingency for which they may or may not be prepared. Studies of civil-military relations have focused on relations between civilian and military elites, with interactions between armed forces and civilian protesters given little or no attention. The objective here is to improve understanding of militaryprotester dynamics. Key relevant features of nonviolent action are outlined, including methods, campaign stages and theoretical assumptions, with a particular focus on interactions with troops. The implications for military-protester dynamics are spelled out with illustrations from several protest campaigns. When troops use force against non-resistant protesters, this sometimes creates more support for the protest movement, a process called political jiu-jitsu. An important method used by some protesters is fraternisation, namely trying to win over troops to their side. Commanders and troops, through their actions, can encourage or discourage protesters’ use of nonviolent methods. Learning about military-protester dynamics is important for both strategists and practitioners.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Protests, Civil-Military Relations, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Turkey and Russia in Syrian war: Hostile friendship

Author:
Cemil Doğaç İpek and Mehmet Çağatay Güler
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study considers Russian-Turkish relations within the context of the Syrian war. We elaborate on both Russia’s and Turkey’s strategies and their understanding of the Syrian War, and consider how the two countries have managed to stay on the same page despite conflictual strategies and geopolitical interests in Syria. The current literature does not address this question and does not thoroughly compare their actions and engagements in the field. This article aims to clarify Turkey-Russia relations in the Syria and provides evidence of how they are in conflict and cooperate at the same time. In this regard, it is argued that the available evidence indicates that Turkey-Russia relations in Syria operate on the “compartmentalisation” strategy. In order to test this argument, the qualitative research method based on secondary resources is used while the theoretical framework previously formulated by Onis and Yilmaz (2015) is adopted. They conceptualise Turkey-Russia relations as if they do “compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid the negative spillover of certain disagreements into areas of bilateral cooperation.” Furthermore, they claim that compartmentalisation can be hindered if there are deepening security concerns in an area like Syria. However, this article underscores that compartmentalisation does not only work by separating the economic issue from geopolitical rivalries; it also makes Turkey and Russia able to cooperate and conflict in a specific and fundamentally conflictual geopolitical issue such as Syria. The convergences and divergences that occurred in the Syrian field are conceptualised under the strategy of compartmentalisation. In this context, the cooperation – the signed agreements and established mechanisms, conflicts, and clashes in the field, are acknowledged as the consequences of the compartmentalisation strategy in Syria. The compartmentalisation strategy is specifically used in Syria in order to avoid the negative impacts of direct clashes in bilateral cooperation and agreements. It can therefore be concluded that the deepening divergence in security related issue does not necessarily prevent compartmentalisation; on the contrary, compartmentalisation paves the way for stabilisation of such deepening divergence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

73. Disinformation as a threat to national security on the example of the COVID-19 pandemics

Author:
Wojciech Łukasz Sługocki and Bogdan Sowa
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Nowadays, the vast majority of the threats to our security is related to information security, resulting in a significant transformation of national security systems. One such threat is disinformation, which is increasingly being used intentionally. The study examines certain impacts of disinformation on national security as a system, on the example of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the study explores some processes visible at the international level and reviews some external problems in connection with national security. Research methods and techniques implemented in the research process itself are primarily based on a critical analysis of the literature and the analysis and synthesis of published research results. The main findings show that the phenomenon of disinformation, which intensifies in crisis situations (e.g. related to the outbreak of a pandemic) contributes to the destabilization of public mood, hinders the functioning of the basic organs of the state and, consequently, increases the negative effects of crisis events. Secondly, the disinformation used during the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated its effects, causing damage on an unprecedented scale. The analyses show that the fight against disinformation must be based on the assumption that the security of the state depends primarily on the information awareness of each citizen. Social awareness is built through effective education aimed at raising basic medical knowledge. Disinformation has serious consequences for modern countries as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime.
Topic:
National Security, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. The Balkan Kettle: Russia’s policy towards the Balkans

Author:
Bogusław Jagiełło
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to identify the policy orientations of Russia in the Balkans. The historical aspects of Russia’s political and cultural ties with the Balkan region and Russia’s policy towards the Balkans during the USSR period will feature. As the Balkans are an important factor in Russia’s geopolitical game to retain influence in Europe, the author analyses Russia’s contemporary policy in the Balkans, its interests and the measures taken to achieve its specific goals. It can be concluded that Russian involvement in some Balkan countries is exhausting the elements of a hybrid war. Two possible models of geopolitical behaviour in relation to Russia can be distinguished. The first is to continue trying to stay as far away from Russia, the second is to build effective mechanisms for socioeconomic cooperation. It can be implied that Russia will not hesitate to repeat the hybrid war scenario from Ukraine in order to maintain its political influence in the region. Only the EU returning to a consistent policy of enlargement involving the Balkan countries and the economic strengthening of the Member States from the Balkan region can weaken Russia’s political influence in the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Politics, Religion, History, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

75. Effects of botnets – a human-organisational approach

Author:
Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Botnets, the remotely controlled networks of computers with malicious aims, have significantly affected the international order from Ukraine to the United States in recent years. Disruptive software, such as malware, ransomware, and disruptive services, provided by those botnets has many specific effects and properties. Therefore, it is paramount to improve the defences against them. To tackle botnets more or less successfully, one should analyse their code, communication, kill chain, and similar technical properties. However, according to the Business Model for Information Security, besides technological attributes, there is also a human and organisational aspect to their capabilities and behaviour. This paper aims to identify the aspects of different attacks and present an analysis framework to identify botnets’ technological and human attributes. After researching the literature and evaluating our previous findings in this research project, we formed a unified framework for the human-organisational classification of botnets. We tested the defined framework on five botnet attacks, presenting them as case studies. The chosen botnets were ElectrumDoSMiner, Emotet, Gamover Zeus, Mirai, and VPNFilter. The focus of the comparison was motivation, the applied business model, willingness to cooperate, capabilities, and the attack source. For defending entities, reaching the target state of defending capabilities is impossible with a one-time development due to cyberspace’s dynamic behaviour and botnets. Therefore, one has to develop cyberdefence and conduct threat intelligence on botnets using such methodology as that presented in this paper. This framework comprises people and technological attributes according to the BMIS model, providing the defender with a standard way of classification.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Botnets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. Bargaining power and U.S. military aid in the post-cold war era

Author:
Yu Wang
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study examines the effect of bargaining power on the allocation of U.S. military assistance. Conceptualising U.S. military assistance as an aid-for-policy deal, it applies a two-tiered stochastic frontier model to a data sample of the post-Cold War era. It shows that the bargaining effect accounts for a huge variation in U.S. military aid distribution. The volume of U.S. military assistance in equilibrium is lower than the baseline volume by 4% at the mean and by 6% at the median. The donor U.S. extracts a slightly larger portion of the transaction surplus at these central points. However, the game of surplus division is not always about equally strong hagglers as it may first appear. In fact, the quartile values show substantial variance in bargaining performance and, hence, an outcome of surplus division across transactions. The bargaining effect is highly significant in the allocation of U.S. military assistance in the post-Cold War era. The donor U.S enjoys a bargaining advantage at the mean and median, but rich variations are noticeable.
Topic:
Military Aid, Bargaining, Post-Cold War, and Stochastic Frontier
Political Geography:
United States of America

77. High power microwave for knocking out programmable suicide drones

Author:
Mohamed Zied Chaari
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The primary research objective is to reduce the dangers of rogue drones in our lives and the consequences of extremist groups, drug dealers, and organised criminals using them. The growing number of incidents involving modified drones proves the weakness of existing technology in stopping and neutralising errant drones such as the hand-held gun jammer, trained eagle, R.F. jammer, and others. This technology is not very likely to able to knock out a rogue drone and is incapable of stopping programmable drones. This article aims to examine the directed energy of HPM (high power microwaves) in using the electromagnetic field strength energy to damage the drone’s structure or burn its PCB board electronics. It goes on to analyse electronic attack using microwave power with high frequency to immediately switch off drones. The effectiveness of high microwave power for disrupting drones at different distances and in different weather conditions is evaluated. A study of the conical horn antenna of the magnetron coupling system, which has an operating frequency of 2.45 GHz, is also included.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

78. Defence diplomatic relations between Poland and China and how they can be improved

Author:
Lech Drab
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main purpose of the article is to examine diplomatic relations between China (official name: the People’s Republic of China) and Poland with a special focus on defence. It also gives an overall assessment of the relations between the armed forces of the two countries and evaluates what has been achieved so far and possible involvements that the countries (especially Poland) should take. A comparative analysis and a historical approach were used whilst investigating the facts. Qualitative research, including participant observation, archival resources, analysis and selection of studies, reports and expertise were the methods employed for collecting research material. Comparative studies were used to analyse other countries’ relations with China to help come to a conclusion. Based on the research, the author recommends an intensification of defence diplomacy between Poland and China which would bring a number of defence and economic benefit to both Warsaw and Beijing. The latest changes in the global balance of power, especially economic, political and military, should be taken into account in the process of developing and implementing a comprehensive and long-term strategic programme in the field of defence diplomacy between Poland and China.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

79. Non-violent civil resistance against military force: The experience of Lithuania in 1991

Author:
Audrone Petrauskaite
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Evolving threats to national security have resulted in the adoption of comprehensive (total) defence concepts by a number of small and medium states. Civil resistance constitutes a considerable part of such concepts, complementing military defence. The historical experience of Lithuania proved the value of nonviolent resistance between 1988 and 1991 for regaining independence, and defending it in January 1991. The aim of this article is to analyse the role of non-violent civil resistance in the national defence system, based on the experience of 13 January 1991 in Lithuania and develop further discussion about the concept of civil resistance. The methodological approach of the article is based on historical and theoretical analysis. This allows the experience of Lithuania to be assessed on the basis of Lithuanian National Security and Defence Strategy and scientific research. Lithuanian non-violent civil resistance in 1988–1991 was successful in terms of strategy, leadership, organisation, planning, non-violence priorities and the number of citizens involved. The leaders of the movement were able to mobilise people into a widespread movement based on their moral authority and value orientations, strongly appealing to different groups in society. Lithuania’s independence was achieved with minimal human sacrifice, preserving the country’s resources and infrastructure. This experience of non-violent civil resistance came to be used by modern state institutions to create strategic documents of the state. In the current situation, it is necessary to focus not only on the knowledge required for state defence and civil resistance, but also on its moral aspects such as values, ethical behaviour, civic and human maturity.
Topic:
History, Armed Forces, Nonviolence, and Civil Resistance
Political Geography:
Europe, Lithuania, and Baltic States

80. Possible applications of GIS tools in order to prepare for drinking water distribution network emergencies

Author:
Endre Salamon, Tamás Papp, and Zoltán Goda
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Data acquisition and computerised analysis can be used to plan for emergencies related to important pipe networks. The objective of this study is to illustrate how GIS and hydraulic calculations may be used to reduce the impact of unexpected events, such as contamination and physical destruction and train operators for such scenarios. A case study with calibrated hydraulic calculations is used to investigate the uncertainty of the obtained information. Hydraulic conditions and contaminant transport are simulated with open source software. It is shown how GIS analysis can be utilised to find optimal solutions for flow redirection problems and shutting off portions of the network. A control system integrated network hydraulic simulation solution is described in order to make training and preparation more efficient. The investigation revealed serious deficiencies regarding the necessary input for running simulations. Contaminant transport results indicated that localisation based on computed water quality models is possible, but contains uncertainties. Data processing and simulation are shown to be a promising tool in decision support and preparation based on the applications outlined. Despite advanced databases and computerised analysis tools, collected data and dynamic simulation are not utilised to their full potential in the process of planning for emergencies. Based on the hypothetical simulation presented, further research and data collection are required to reduce the uncertainty of contaminant transport. For future research, more effort has to be put into developing simulation environments.
Topic:
Water, Pipeline, Simulation, and GIS
Political Geography:
Global Focus