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1. Analysis of Istanbul Stock Market Returns Volatility with ARCH and GARCH Models

Author:
İpek M. Yurttagüler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
In today’s world where globalization is intensely experienced, differences in risk perception, developments in capital markets, and the negativities faced in the markets due to uncertainty are very important when researching the structures of the stock markets, and therefore determining current volatilities. One of the biggest problems encountered is the inability to price stocks effectively. Therefore, estimating and modeling volatility becomes crucial. The diversity of the portfolio, created by international investors in the financial markets and the sustainability of their investment decisions, are closely related to the volatility variable. However, the fact that financial markets are more fragile in developing countries increases the importance of volatility. There are many different methods in the literature when estimating volatility. Due to the inadequacy of traditional time series models in estimating volatility, conditional heteroskedasticity models are used with ARCH and GARCH class models being frequently used. In this study, the series of daily opening values of the ISE100 Index covering from 02.01.2003 to 30.09.2022 was estimated using ARCH/GARCH models for volatility with the aim to determine which model has the higher explanatory power. According to the findings, the GARCH(1,1) model gave more meaningful results in explaining the ISE100 return volatility.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Stock Markets, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873

Author:
Marc Flandreau
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
Topic:
Finance, Banking, Stock Markets, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and England