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1. Is Iran Looking to Inspire Shia Homegrown Violent Extremist Attacks?

Author:
Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An October 2018 report by the National Counterterrorism Center defined Shia homegrown violent extremists as “individuals who are inspired or influenced by state actors such as Iran, foreign terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, or Shia militant groups but who do not belong to these groups and are not directed by them.” At the time, the prospect of such Shia violence was largely theoretical, and officials could identify no tangible threats on American soil. But the January 2020 targeted killing of Iranian Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani changed the picture, and U.S. officials could now point to a “catalyzing event,” as envisioned in the NCTC brief. Last year’s attack against writer Salman Rushdie and another at a Las Vegas hotel exemplified how Iran-inspired individuals were motivated to act. In this Policy Note, experts Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt explore lone-offender Shia violence largely through the lens of social media. Closer tracking of online networks, they argue, could illuminate this flourishing virtual activity and how it might lead to real-world harm.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

2. Can Federalism Work in Lebanon?

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Lebanon’s economic and socio-political conditions have spiraled downward since the rise and fractionalization of the 2019 popular protests—known as the October 17 Revolution—various proposals have emerged as to how to remedy the bankrupt and virtually failed state. All agree that the current outlook is grim; today, the Lebanese currency has lost almost all its value and the presidential seat is contested and remains vacant. Political elites are at loggerheads and blamed for robbing the state, society is polarized across intra- and inter-confessional lines, and poverty has reached a popular level not seen since the Great Famine of World War I. Among the proposed suggestions is the federal option, put as an alternative to the country’s confessional system. Such ideas are not new; in fact, the federal option had been championed and the subject of debate among mainly Christian politicians and parties prior to and during Lebanon’s civil war (1975-1990). President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) offered a detailed plan for a federal Lebanon; the Lebanese Front, representing mainly Maronite aspirations, likewise presented a federal project during the Lebanon National Dialogue in Lausanne in 1984; and president-elect Bashir Gemayel, assassinated in 1982, toyed with the idea of federalism. However, Lebanon’s civil war ended when the antagonistic parties signed the Document of National Reconciliation of 1989, also known as the Taif Agreement, which introduced administrative decentralization instead of federalism. And while the agreement ended the civil war, it subsequently ushered in an era of Lebanese politics marked by the Syrian occupation of Beirut until 2005 and the rise of the Islamist Shia party Hezbollah, effectively building a state within a state and commanding a militia more or less better equipped than the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political elites entered into a Faustian pact with Hezbollah under which they legitimized the ‘Party of God’ in exchange for turning a blind eye to their theft of the state. It is this bargain that has brought Lebanon to its almost total collapse as a state and a nation.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Reform, Shia, and Federalism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

3. The Man Who Would be King: Muqtada al-Sadr’s Legitimation in the Iraqi Shi’a Field

Author:
Ryan Zoellner
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
On July 27, 2022, Iraq’s sclerotic government formation process finally broke. After ten months of failed negotiations to form a cabinet—the longest stalemate since 2003—protestors infiltrated Baghdad’s Green Zone, making themselves at home in the offices of parliament. Their objective was to disrupt the nomination of a rival parliamentarian, Mohammad Shia’ al-Sudani, to the Premiership, and while ultimately unsuccessful, this was done with optical gusto. Having made their point, the intruders were told by their leadership to “go home and pray,” only to return for a longer stint three days later.[1] On both occasions, the occupants came with signs bearing the image of Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Often described as “Iraq’s Kingmaker,” Muqtada al-Sadr exercises an authority over a large swath of Iraq’s Shi’a population that seemingly transcends Iraqi political institutions and even the transnational Shi’a religious establishment. As a cleric and political leader, Sadr controls formal institutions including religious endowments, tithing networks, schools, political offices, and a militia. However, as events of the summer made clear, Sadr’s most potent means of exercising power is the mobilization of his followers, a force that can be leveraged with or without formal integration into the political order. Given this influence, Western media and analysts have scrambled to ask, “Who is Muqtada al-Sadr?” Current profiles of Sadr are often as two-dimensional as they were during his first emergence in the 2003 invasion. Sadr is presented in binaries; he is anti-Iranian or anti-American, an insurgent leader or a revolutionary, a holy man or a demagogue. This paper aims to furnish a more robust answer to the question by drawing upon Max Weber’s typology of authority. It will give an account of Sadr’s legitimacy in the Iraqi Shi’a religious field with respect to his traditional, legal, and charismatic authority.
Topic:
Leadership, Domestic Politics, Shia, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

4. Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon's Shia Community

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The southern Beirut suburb encompasses multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. The highway leading south from Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport skirts the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiya, allowing travelers to feel the group’s power and presence without seeing the surrounding community for what it is—multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. For motorists, the highway barrier blocks any concept of the area’s polarized conditions, from the posh, shop-lined sections where senior Hezbollah officials live to the dark, impoverished warrens postered with fading images of “martyrs.” Drivers also miss the network of Iran-sponsored media channels, military depots, and religious institutions that flourish in the suburb—along with the secret prisons that fortify Hezbollah’s iron grip. In this Policy Focus, richly illustrated with local maps, former Lebanese journalist Hanin Ghaddar reveals the widening gaps between the country’s Shia community and its Hezbollah overlords, especially since mass protests shook the nation in October 2019. This analysis not only corrects past oversimplifications of Lebanese Shia, it also offers a path for policymakers seeking to undermine the militant group and give the fragile country hope for the future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon