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1201. Showdown in Shabwa Shakes Government – The Yemen Review, August 2022

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Long-running tensions between the Islamist Islah party and UAE-backed groups in Shabwa erupted into open conflict in August, with the Giants Brigades and STC-aligned Shabwa Defense forces driving Islah-aligned military and security forces from the governorate. The expulsion of Islah from Shabwa and the STC’s subsequent takeover of much of neighboring Abyan governorate raised questions about the ability of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to resolve tensions between anti-Houthi parties and the nature of any future peace deal. Despite being extended on August 2, the UN-brokered truce between the government and the Houthi movement saw its first major violation later in the month when Houthi forces attempted to take control of the last major government-controlled road out of Taiz city, prompting widespread international condemnation and the government’s withdrawal from UN-facilitated talks in Amman. Although the pledged Saudi-Emirati financial aid to the government remains stalled, the exchange rate in government-held territory has remained relatively stable, with the rial even appreciating somewhat following PLC head Rashad al-Alimi’s visits to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in the middle of the month. Despite this, and news of the resumption of grain shipments from Ukraine under a UN-backed deal, issues remain around food price affordability and fuel availability.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

1202. The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations

Author:
Kadri Liik
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Policymakers across the EU agree Russia poses a multifaceted threat to their security. Europeans have responded quickly to the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine, but they lack a ‘theory of victory’. They have no shared view about how the conflict is likely to end. No single EU member state is guiding Russia policy; a ‘leaderless unity’ has emerged. This could provide the bloc with a form of dispersed strength – but a change in US leadership could expose the weakness of this situation. EU policymakers do not believe that Europeans have the means to bring about regime change in Russia; at the same time, they are unable to foresee a stable future relationship with a Putin-led Russia. Policymakers are uncertain how Russia’s war on Ukraine will affect their interaction with other parts of the world, including China and the global south. This could prevent Europeans from mounting a more effective global response. Europeans should re-examine the support they give to Russians fleeing the regime – emigrés represent an important connection to Russian society, which will be valuable whoever occupies the Kremlin.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1203. Don’t Fear Vacuums: It’s Safe To Go Home

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
“We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran,” President Biden said this July in defense of his administration’s continued commitment to the Middle East.1 His comments reflect a widely held misconception: that a U.S. military exit from the Middle East would empower U.S. adversaries, and thus somehow make Americans less secure.2 U.S. leaders and pundits have expressed similar fears about the danger of creating vacuums by leaving Syria, Afghanistan (before U.S. exit of course), and even Africa, where only smatterings of U.S. troops are stationed.3 Vacuum fears also fuel more general warnings against surrendering influence in the developing world. Chinese investments via its Belt and Road Initiative—a massive set of infrastructure-development loans—for example, are said to exploit a vacuum the United States should compete to fill. Chinese trade in South America, or Russian port calls there, are said to reflect a failure to exert U.S. influence.4 The burgeoning idea behind these claims is that “great power competition,” which once seemed a useful rationale for exiting conflicts and lingering endeavors of the global war on terror, demands winning an open-ended, ill-defined contest for influence with Russia and China in the greater Middle East and developing world, or what is now sometimes called the global south.5 Vacuums that could be said to follow a U.S. exit—not the terrorists or insurgents U.S. forces were deployed to fight—are the new justification for staying.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and United States of America

1204. Divergencias chino-estadounidenses y reconfiguración de la política exterior latinoamericana. Introducción al número especial

Author:
Pablo Biderbost and Guillermo Boscán Carrasquero
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados Unidos y China en el contexto latinoamericano. Pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de estas potencias en la región y la adaptación que han debido realizar, en el contexto de su política exterior, los estados latinoamericanos. A tales efectos, se analizan dimensiones tanto vinculadas a la seguridad como a las relaciones comerciales entre estas naciones y los, en la actualidad, dos estados dominantes del escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and United States of America

1205. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1206. Refugee Policy and Selective Implementation of the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework in Kenya

Author:
Milan Jacobi and Rose Jaji
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Kenya’s refugee policy has morphed over time due to factors that include security threats, regional geo-politics and strategic interests. This policy brief addresses the relevance of national and regional geo-strategic interests for refugee policy in Kenya. It provides a historical overview of refugee policy in the country, highlighting the factors that account for policy fluctuations, contradictions and differential treatment of refugees hosted in Kenya, which is one of the pilot countries for the implementation of the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF). For policy-makers seeking to localise international refugee governance frameworks, it is important to situate frameworks such as the CRRF within the relevant national contexts because refugee hosting does not take place in a political vacuum or an ahistorical context (Jaji, 2022). Kenya is an interesting case study because the contra-dictions in its refugee policy take a bifurcated approach, in which it has approved the implementation of the CRRF’s main objective to promote refugees’ self-reliance in north-western Kenya, where it hosts the mainly South Sudanese refugees in Kakuma camp and simultaneously put on hold the implementation of the same in the north-east in Dadaab camp, which predominantly hosts Somali refugees. Over the years, the government of Kenya has threatened to close the two camps, the most recent threat being in April 2021, when it announced that it wanted UNHCR to re-patriate refugees within 14 days. Although the imple-mentation of KISEDP made closure of Kakuma refugee camp a logical course of action, the non-implementation of GISEDP in Garissa County raised concern in humanitarian circles regarding the fate of Somali refugees if Dadaab camp were to be closed without an integrated settlement similar to Kalobeyei. The geo-political context accounts for the policy dis-crepancies and ambivalence evident in how the Kenyan government has implemented the CRRF in Turkana County but not in Garissa. The complex relations between Kenya and Somalia are salient for the implementation of the CRRF in Garissa County, where the majority of Somali refugees in Kenya are hosted. Kenya and Somalia are locked in a maritime border dispute, which cannot be overlooked in trying to understand Kenya’s policy towards Somali refugees. The government of Kenya views Somalis as a threat to national security and blames them for the terrorist attacks in the country. Based on an analysis of these factors, we offer the following recommendations: • International processes such as the CRRF should be sensitive to the security and geo-political interests of host countries. Security issues between Kenya and Somalia have a uniquely negative impact on Somali refugees in Kenya, which makes humanitarian operations harder to implement in Garissa County. UNHCR and its partner organisations and funders should: • encourage Kenya to implement GISEDP and provide sustained financial contributions under burden-sharing, which would provide more incentives for Kenya to remain committed to implementing the CRRF. • clearly present the economic benefits of implementing the CRRF in terms of promoting self-reliance not only for the refugees, but also for Kenyans in both Turkana and Garissa counties. • maintain support for Kenya’s efforts to engender self-reliance for refugees in north-western Kenya and commend the country for implementing the CRRF under KISEDP while also remaining aware of Kenya’s securi-tisation of Somali refugees in north-eastern Kenya. • consider the insights from Kenya in addressing con-textual issues in other host countries that have agreed to implement the CRRF.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Refugees, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

1207. Ukraine–Russia Conflict: India’s Energy Security

Author:
Shebonti Ray Dadwal
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Any major upheaval or crisis in any part of the world, particularly one that involves an energy-producing country, has an immediate impact on the energy markets. But, barring the first ‘oil shock’ in 1973, which caused an initial spike in prices, the markets have settled down, particularly once it is established that the energy supplies will not be affected. However, since February 2022, following the onset of the Russian–Ukraine conflict, energy security has returned to the forefront of national security concerns. Oil and other energy prices are climbing to record levels, hovering around US$100 a barrel. In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the Ukraine war will severely set back global economic recovery from the COVID–19 pandemic, increase inflation, cause grave risks to the financial system, and even potentially fragment the world economy into geopolitical blocs (Gourinchas, 2022: 10–11). What makes the current conflict different from earlier crises? After all, the canvas of the conflict is essentially restricted to the European theatre and should, therefore, have limited fallout. Even when Russia attacked and annexed Crimea in 2014, the energy markets did not witness the kind of reaction and response the current Russia–Ukraine conflict is experiencing.
Topic:
Security, Markets, Oil, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, South Asia, Ukraine, and India

1208. You May not be Interested in COVID, but COVID is Interested in You

Author:
James F. Keeley
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a clear threat to the lives of individual Albertans; together with the measures taken in response, it has posed a clear threat to their economic circumstances while uncovering existing social fissures in terms of the variable vulnerability of sub-populations to both the virus and those response measures. It qualifies as a significant security threat on these levels. In responding to this threat, the Alberta government marshalled its institutional resources and had to adapt them to circumstances of a scale and type last seen one hundred years ago. It had to do so under economic and political conditions that already presented significant challenges, and that were in some cases strongly exacerbated by its policy choices and their consequences. Finally, it had to do so in the face of strong, yet often contradictory, public pressures. These challenges and difficulties found in the microcosm of a single Canadian province in confronting a specific sort of problem may be of interest and use in considering the prospect, particularly of future, especially non-traditional, security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

1209. COVID-19 in Alberta

Author:
James F. Keeley
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The security consequences of disease cannot be doubted, even by hard-core “traditional” security students: the plague in Athens in the early Peloponnesian War, plagues elsewhere in the ancient world, the Black Death, and the role of sickness in Cortez’s conquest of the Aztecs (much less the broader colonization of the New World), are only a few examples which come readily to mind. Whether in their international or in their domestic politics and, in the intertwining of the two, the consequences of disease have affected the affairs of states. While the effects of COVID-19 may not yet rise to the mass deaths of earlier cases (at least in developed and semi-developed states), the mitigating effects of modern science and medicine being as they are, the consequences for state security – much less the security of individuals – are already notable. This alone justifies an examination of the domestic and international effects of COVID-19, not just in terms of health but also in its economic, social and political aspects.
Topic:
Security, Health, Politics, Economy, COVID-19, and Society
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and Alberta

1210. WPS in Afghanistan: Betrayal and Renewal

Author:
Farkhondeh Akbari and Jacqui True
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021 unraveled significant achievements of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in Afghanistan over the last two decades.1 Every western donor present in the country pushed the WPS agenda over the past two decades of their engagement in Afghanistan. The previous Government of Afghanistan adopted a National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security in 2015. They made concerted efforts to implement the NAP by promoting women’s participation in the peace process, the parliament, in government and the security sector, and to protect women and girls from gender-based violence and other violations of their human rights. The western forces’ withdrawal not only destabilised these achievements, but it also erased the public space of struggle for gender equality. The collapse of the Afghan Government and exit of international forces laid bare the reality of the “projectification” 2 of the WPS agenda and its impacts in Afghanistan. The return of the Taliban through force was inevitable with the signing of the Doha deal on 29 February 2020. 3 Moreover, the evacuation process revealed the lack of commitment to protecting women’s rights and women activists in the face of the Taliban takeover and attacks. Afghan women and girls are now facing a serious crisis based on their gender. 4 Future strategy and engagement to support the rights and security of women and girls in Afghanistan must be based on a frank assessment of the meaningfulness of policies and initiatives supporting the WPS agenda. Feminist foreign policy can support this objective by providing a framework towards a more explicitly feminist and transformative approach. This paper has two aims: 1) to provide a post-mortem analysis of the WPS agenda in Afghanistan as a reality check for the international community and through the lens of feminist foreign policy; 2) to assess what can be done to renew the commitment and efforts to support women’s security and human rights.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia