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1181. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1182. Women and Peacebuilding in Africa: Some Policy Recommendations

Author:
Anna Chitando
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
There is an increasing acknowledgment of the important role played by women in peacebuilding worldwide. The UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1325 calls for the full involvement of women in all efforts towards the maintenance of and support for peace and security.1 Other successive UNSC resolutions linked to the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) framework such as 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, and 2242 have underscored the role of women in peacebuilding. However, Machakanja observes that “women’s participation in peace and security in Africa remains more symbolic than substantive, and their capacity to influence and engage in peace negotiations is often resisted by local cultural norms and patriarchal hierarchies.”2 Although women contribute significantly to peacebuilding in Africa, their efforts are often diminished, or “invisible.” This is predominantly a result of the patriarchal bias which tends to exclude women from political activities and official peace negotiations.3
Topic:
Security, Women, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa

1183. Agenda OTAN 2030 y Concepto Estratégico 2022

Author:
Carmen Romero
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
El momento crítico que atraviesa la seguridad europea tras la agresión de Rusia contra Ucrania ha alterado el entorno estratégico y obliga a la Alianza Atlántica a repensar su posición. Sunuevo concepto estratégico a aprobar en 2022 está marcado por este hecho histórico. Si bien, esta nueva estrategia está guiada a su vez por la Agenda OTAN 2030, adoptada en 2019, que establece una serie de principios como guía: unidad, defensa colectiva, resiliencia, salvaguarda de las infraestructuras y superioridad tecnológica. Así, este ensayo estratégico quiere reflexionar sobre este proceso para que la Alianza y la OTAN sean claves en la defensa del orden de seguridad internacional. Con este fin,analiza las claves de dicho entorno y cómo la organización pretende responder a esos desafíos, lo que tiene evidentes y potenciales implicaciones para España.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

1184. OTAN, España y el FrenteSur. Análisis geopolítico tras cuarenta años de experiencia compartida

Author:
Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Cuatro décadas es tiempo suficiente para realizar un balance de la relación de España con la OTAN, como miembro de pleno derecho.Balance de particular interés en este periodo en el que hemos asistido a tantos cambios en el contexto internacional; cambios que han afectado a nuestra percepción de amenazas y a los modos de hacerles frente.Este trabajo analizará desde dos enfoques la experiencia española como miembro de la Alianza y los distintos estados de la relación, tanto con la Organización, como con su principal socio. El primero tomará en consideración los condicionantes domésticos de cada una de las partes. El segundo, atenderá a los condicionantessistémicos que tanto han variado desde la época de la guerra fría. Particular atención merecerá el siempre mejorable enfoque del denominado “flanco Sur”, con la vista puesta en la elaboración del nuevo concepto estratégico de la OTAN. Al respecto, se atenderá a las distintas sensibilidades dentro de la Alianza y la reivindicación de un trato análogo al recibido por el tradicional “flanco Este”. El contenido del documento de reflexión para la elaboración del nuevo concepto estratégico OTAN respecto a la proyección sur, puede implicar un cambio en la naturaleza de la relación con esta zona de operaciones. La metodología de investigación de basará en una serie de entrevistas sobre la base de una encuesta previa a oficiales españoles con experiencia práctica en la OTAN, tanto en operaciones como en diversos puestos directivos. Se incluirán también elementos de la consideración norteamericana respecto a la participación española. Combinados los resultados con el apoyo científico de académicos, foros de defensa y contribuciones de think tanks, se extraerán las conclusiones y recomendaciones para una mayor y mejor comprensión en los próximos cuarenta años.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Budget, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

1185. ¿Puede la OSCE (todavía) contribuir a la seguridad europea?

Author:
Fernando Arlettaz
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La Conferencia sobre la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa (convertida luego en la Organización para la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa) nació con el objetivo de constituir un foro de diálogo entre actores con opciones políticas y concepciones de laseguridad radicalmente diferentes. Luego del final de la Guerra Fría, el discurso de la Organización se orientó hacia la promoción de un ideal democrático robusto. Sin embargo, los hechos mostraron los límites del optimismo inicial. El rol efectivo de la Organización siguió vinculado a un concepto tradicional de seguridad como seguridad interestatal, con cierta atención a la dimensión de los derechos humanos, pero también con una alta tolerancia a los regímenes no democráticos que persistían en su seno. Esta geometría variableentre los componentes del concepto de seguridad se relaciona con la naturaleza misma de la Organización: ella nació como forma de garantizar un modus vivendientre Estados con intereses e ideologías enfrentados y mantiene en buena medida este carácter, aunque la oposición no sea hoy entre dos modelos económicos diferentes sino entre Estados con grados variables de democratización.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and OSCE
Political Geography:
Europe

1186. Desradicalizacióny desvinculación:aspectos formales y teóricos

Author:
Roberto Muelas Lobato and David García
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
La radicalización constituye una de las mayores problemáticas a nivel securitario y social. No obstante, el número de detenciones en los últimos años han llevado a replantearse reforzar los modelos de intervención en su relación con la desvinculación y la desradicalización. Como consecuencia, la atención está cambiando hacia los procesos de desvinculación/desradicalización. Tratando de aunar los conocimientos sobre la temática, en el presente manuscrito se realiza una revisión de la literatura que trata de identificar y valorar algunos de los factores y modelos de desvinculación, desradicalización y/o reinserción desarrollados en estas últimas décadas. En primera instancia se conceptualizan la desradicalización, entendida como un proceso social y psicológico por el que el compromiso de un individuo con la radicalización violenta y su participación en ella se reducen hasta el punto de que ya no corre el riesgo de implicarse y participar en actividades violentas, y la desvinculación, proceso mediante el cual un individuo experimenta un cambio de rol o función que suele ir asociado a una reducción de la participación en la violencia. Posteriormente, se analizan los principales factores de empuje y atracción que se han encontrado en la literatura, destacando, por un lado, la desilusión con la estrategia o las acciones del grupo radical y, por otro lado, las relaciones con personas fuera del grupo y las demandas familiares. A continuación, se hacen explícitos siete modelos teóricos propuestos desde distintas disciplinas que tratan de explicar los procesos de desvinculación, desradicalización y/o reinserción social. Entre estos modelos, encontramos la trayectoria de desvinculación,el modelo de inversión,el modelo 3N,el modelo pro-integración,los bucles de refuerzo,el modelo de las dinámicas de la desvinculación y el modelo fénix de desvinculación. Finalmente, se discuten algunas de las similitudes y diferencias de estos modelos y sus principales limitaciones.
Topic:
Security, Disengagement, Deradicalization, and Theoretical Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1187. World Risk Poll: Spotlight on Ukraine and Russia

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, when combined with associated data from the Gallup World Poll and a number of other sources, reveals a complex and sometimes counterintuitive view of the world for both Ukrainians and Russians prior to the Russian invasion in 2022. Ukrainian citizens’ positive sentiments on a number of questions on social wellbeing were on the rise at a time when global averages were in decline. In the lead-up to the invasion, Ukrainians’ perceptions of safety and security were improving, with the percentage of people reporting feeling safer than five years prior rising from 19 to 26 per cent, bringing it closer to the global average. This represents a major increase, especially as it came at a time when the global average fell markedly, from 36 to 27.4 per cent, and for Russians the rate fell from 19.2 to 17.4 per cent. The conflict has unfolded within the context of Ukraine’s increasing socio-political reorientation toward the West. By November 2021, 58 per cent of Ukrainians said that, if the country were to join just one economic union, it should join the European Union (EU), compared to 21 per cent that said it should join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. This was the highest rating ever recorded. Similarly, 54 per cent said they would vote to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), compared to 28 per cent who would vote against joining. Surprisingly, “war and terrorism” was only the sixth highest-rated concern in Ukraine in 2021. Ukrainians rated health-related risks (not including COVID-19) as their top concern. Transportation-related risks, crime and violence, economic concerns and financial hardship were more frequently cited than “war and terrorism."
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Risk, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

1188. Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation” is dedicated to the challenges and opportunities emerging in the South Caucasus region 2 years after the end of the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 with focus on security and political matters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Landmines, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

1189. The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine could mark a watershed for European security. There has been much talk that European governments are divided over the conflict, but European citizens seem remarkably united around three key ideas. Firstly, they believe it is likely that there will be another Russian invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, they see this as a problem not only for Ukraine but for European security generally. Thirdly, they want Europe to respond to the crisis, with majorities supporting a response from NATO and the EU in particular. Europeans disagree on which are the most pressing threats linked to the crisis and on the price their countries should pay to defend Ukraine: people in Poland, Romania, and Sweden are much more willing to make sacrifices than those in France and Germany. The crisis will likely test Europeans’ readiness to defend the European security order.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Public Opinion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1190. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war. Such clashes are often dismissed as 'inter-communal violence' delinked from the politics of the peace agreement. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS—a report from the Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—demonstrates that the conflict raging in Warrap is instead deeply political, and a consequence of the way that Kiir's regime maintains power by setting feuding elites against each other. In Warrap, the South Sudanese state has suffered an almost total collapse in political legitimacy, and cattle-guards have emerged as the only actors on the ground with genuine community support that can resist the predatory state, even if they are also instrumentalized by it. 'And Everything Became War' is the first in-depth study of conflict dynamics in Warrap state since the beginning of the South Sudanese civil war. Based on extensive fieldwork, the report makes one central conclusion: as South Sudan enters its fourth year of ‘peace’, everything has become war, and the South Sudanese government is the war’s cause rather than the solution.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan