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1041. A pillar of stability in an unstable world

Author:
Stefania Benaglia and Dylan Macchiarini Crosson
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The rising centrality of the Indo-Pacific is self-evident. What remains to be defined is the potential role the EU could play, notably as a security actor. Given capacity constraints, the EU’s objectives in the region should focus on credibility and on safeguarding shared interests – for example securing sea lines of communication, an objective also shared by Japan. Hard power remains the preferred language in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia unceremoniously dumping the French contract over US nuclear technology in the AUKUS affair, as well as India’s reluctance to take a position against Russia, a major provider of defence equipment, over its full-blown invasion of Ukraine demonstrate that being able to speak the language of power in a credible and reliable way takes precedence. While the EU will unlikely become a defence security provider à la the United States, it is now clear that it must evolve its global stance. The adoption of the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy and cross-references to it in the EU’s Strategic Compass represent an important milestone for bolstering its security and defence posture. The EU would do well to support its efforts to be a more credible security and defence actor in the Indo-Pacific by upgrading relations with its strategic partners, Japan in primis. Further operational, capabilities development, and industrial cooperation with Japan must be considered and reinforced by triangulation with other strategic partners in the region.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Political stability, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

1042. Opinion on Moldova’s application for membership of the European Union

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Steven Blockmans, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper responds to Moldova’s request of 3 March 2022 to accede to membership of the European Union. The European Council meeting at Versailles on 10-11 March endorsed the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request. The present paper gives our opinion on the position that we would like to see the Commission take, namely that the EU should extend candidate status to Moldova. Progress in implementing the Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Moldova means that there is already a substantial degree of preparedness for the accession process. While Moldova has an important reform agenda to sustain, especially on the judiciary and rule of law, its democratic electoral processes have been of impressive quality since 2020. There is good coherence between the presidency, government and parliament on the reform and European integration agendas. Moldova’s common history, border and partly overlapping citizenship with EU Member State Romania is also relevant. With Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Moldova is next at risk on account of political, economic and security vulnerabilities. Recent explosions in Transnistria point to the possibility of this separatist region being instrumentalised by Russia to destabilise Moldova. These factors further underline the case for comprehensive EU support and the need for geostrategic clarity, which should be framed by an EU decision to extend candidate status to Moldova.
Topic:
Security, Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

1043. Solid foundation, rocky future? Assessing transatlantic defence and security ties after NATO’s Madrid summit

Author:
Michael J. Mazarr and Daniel Fiott
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine has raised serious questions about European security, but it has also led to much greater transatlantic unity. This Policy Insights paper argues that the war on Ukraine has given rise to a new consensus among large parts of NATO and the EU to reinvest in collective security. Charting the progress made by both NATO and the EU, this paper looks at how transatlantic partners are addressing questions related to the so-called need to balance between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, EU strategic autonomy and the implementation of NATO’s Strategic Concept and the EU’s Strategic Compass, as well as the conclusions of the NATO Madrid Summit. It finds that there are several areas for enhanced EU-NATO cooperation, but issues pertaining to future US elections, defence industrial policy and NATO’s force posture could sorely undermine transatlantic unity.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Alliance, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

1044. Will the European Political Community actually be useful?

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On 6 October 2022 there will be an inaugural EU meeting at summit level, with the EU’s close neighbours also invited, to debate security and stability as part of a budding European Political Community (EPC), as proposed by President Macron with support from President Michel. However, the future functions of the EPC have only been sketched in very preliminary and summary terms, which this CEPS Explainer seeks to explore in more detail. We identify several categories: foreign policy and strategic security, and EU internal policies, consisting of energy security and climate change, economic cooperation and mobility. While foreign policy and security issues are obviously prioritised in official statements, so far in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, there are serious limitations over how effective this is likely to be (almost all of the EU’s most powerful allies are outside Europe). The other suggested functions link closely to the EU’s competences and resources, and these do offer scope for more solid and consensual cooperation. Overall, the EPC’s organisation and functions should be designed with all these possibilities in mind, especially serving to complement and not displace the EU’s enlargement processes.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1045. Can we ever build a common European home? The perils and promise of an old idea

Author:
Zachary Paikin and Michael Kimmage
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the idea of a ‘common European home’ inspired many different political leaders. This idea has now crumbled amid Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Historians will long debate what went wrong. For now, the West will have little choice but to inhabit a continental security context based on deterrence rather than romantic visions and shared identities. But Western governments should also not give up on the more flexible, accepting approach to European security and integration that animated the 1990s. The EU granting candidate status to Ukraine last June was a landmark event. But the EU cannot have an effective strategy for Ukraine without also having a strategy for Russia. Even with the continent afflicted by war, the aspiration of a common European home must not be discarded. This CEPS Explainer evaluates the principal lessons of the Ukraine War for European security and outlines a pathway to putting the continent back on the road towards a more inclusive order.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

1046. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:
Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

1047. Session IV: The Unsustainability of Camps and Prisons: How Things Need to Change

Author:
Sahar Attrache, Fabrizio Carboni, Sonia Khush, Letta Tayler, and Elizabeth Hagedorn
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Over three years ago, Islamic State’s territorial project in Syria and Iraq was dealt its final defeat in al-Baghouz. While the terrorist group’s insurgency in the region remains largely contained, one single and largely unaddressed issue is worsening by the day, threatening to guarantee an eventual resurgence. As of mid-2022, more than 60,000 men, women and children—most with some level of past association with ISIS—remain in makeshift detention and squalid camps in Syria. Thousands are Western citizens. This is an increasingly unsustainable security and humanitarian crisis, and progress on resolving it has moved painfully slowly, if at all.
Topic:
Security, Prisons/Penal Systems, Islamic State, Civilians, Humanitarian Crisis, and Detention
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

1048. Biden's Trip to the Middle East

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Paul Salem, Bilal Y. Saab, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
President Joe Biden's recent trip has received acclaim, scorn, and indifference from across the foreign policy establishment. Why did Biden go to the Middle East, and what did he seek to gain? In this much-anticipated episode, host Alistair Taylor and four expert guests reflect on this question from a variety of perspectives, diving deep into the motivations and repercussions of President Biden's trip. Esteemed guests include Paul Salem, President of MEI; Bilal Saab, Senior Fellow and Founding Director of the Defense and Security Program at MEI; Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow and Founding Director of the Egypt Program at MEI; and Alex Vatanka, Director of the Iran Program and Senior Fellow at the Frontier Europe Initiative at MEI.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East

1049. Yemen After Eight Years of Civil War

Author:
Gerald Feierstein, Fatima Abo Alasrar, and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Now in the fifth month of a ceasefire, what are the prospects for a negotiated end to the Yemeni Civil War, and the beginning of a sustained peace? MEI Distinguished Sr. Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of the Arabian Peninsula program Gerald Feierstein discusses these questions with two outstanding scholars who have followed and written extensively about Yemen over the years. Fatima Abo Alasrar is a nonresident scholar at MEI and a Senior Analyst for the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies. Ibrahim Jalal is a Yemeni security, conflict, and defense researcher in the UK, an Erasmus Scholar, and a co-founding member of The Security Distillery think tank.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

1050. Taliban rule of Afghanistan at six months

Author:
Marvin G. Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Marvin Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi discuss Afghanistan’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises six months after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country.
Topic:
Security, Taliban, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America