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21. THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE PROCESS OF INFORMING THE PUBLIC ABOUT DISASTER RISKS

Author:
Vladimir M. Cvetkovic, Aleksandra Nikolic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Topic:
Social Media, Risk, Disaster Management, Public Service, and Information
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

22. Cyber Crossover and Its Escalatory Risks for Europe

Author:
Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The crossover between cybercrime and cyberwarfare has intensified in recent years, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and mounting tensions between China, Russia and the United States. This paper delves into specific cyber incidents that employ cybercrime tactics with cyberwarfare objectives, allegedly involving Chinese, Russian or US actors. It examines responses within and among the private sector, the public sector and international forums. Although not directly involved in all of the cases, the European Union (EU) was impacted in a variety of ways, including as a result of spillover effects and intentional targeting. Drawing on an examination of cyber incidents, this paper highlights how emerging trends in actors, means and responses present escalatory risks for the EU and emphasizes the pressing need to bolster cybersecurity measures.
Topic:
European Union, Cybersecurity, Conflict, Risk, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

23. De-risking and decarbonising: a green tech partnership to reduce reliance on China

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Heather Grabbe, and Axel Källenius
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Trade in renewable energy goods is a global public good; all countries gain when others cut emissions, and all suffer from climate change if decarbonisation is delayed. Yet this trade depends on China, which controls most of the world’s production of solar panels and electric vehicle batteries, and some of the global trade in wind turbines. These supply chains are vulnerable to disruption, natural disasters and weaponisation by China, which has already exercised its dominant position in some critical raw materials to put pressure on other countries. Part of the European Union and United States response to reduce reliance on China is reshoring production, but this is economically inefficient given their limited access to critical raw materials and high production costs. Moreover, Chinese firms are far ahead of the rest of the world in green tech manufacturing and innovation, and in extraction and processing. To reduce reliance on China, incentive-aligned governments and businesses should form a green tech partnership. This would produce green tech with the aim of decarbonising faster, while ensuring greater diversification of resources and improving security of supply. Each partnership economy would use its comparative advantage within a new green-tech supply chain. The aim is to supplement, not substitute, the Chinese supply chain, since both will be needed to meet rising global demand for green tech, including in China. Although such international coordination is difficult, the partnership would offers benefits to many different countries. Emerging economies that are rich in critical raw materials and/or have moderate wages would gain economic development opportunities. The US and the EU should share technology and provide financing, as they will gain from reduced dependence on China and from sourcing than is still cheaper than reshoring. China would have more room to use its clean tech to meet its own decarbonisation targets. The partnership could be organised through a combination of trade and investment agreements, together with tech transfer and financial agreements, under some form of inter-governmental oversight. The dependence of all countries on China for green tech is so great that non-market incentives might also be needed, such as subsidies or, preferably, a system of carbon pricing within the partnership.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Risk, Renewable Energy, Supply, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

24. The Anatomy of Cyber Risk

Author:
Rustam Jamilov, Hélène Rey, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper employs computational linguistics to introduce a novel text-based measure of firm-level cyber risk exposure based on quarterly earnings conference calls of listed firms. Our quarterly measures are available for more than 13,000 firms from 85 countries over 2002-2021. We document that cyber risk exposure predicts cyber attacks, affects stock returns and profits, and is priced in the equity option market. The cost of option protection against price, variance, and tail risks is greater for more cyber-exposed firms. Cyber risks spill over across firms and persist at the sectoral level. The geography of cyber risk exposure is well approximated by a gravity model extended with cross-border portfolio flows. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the global cost of cyber risk is over $200 billion per year.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Cybersecurity, Business, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Navigating Migration Risks: The Role of Risk Perception and Information Engagement Among Moldovans

Author:
Ludmila Bogdan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This study examines migration risk perception and information engagement by potential migrants from Moldova. Employing a qualitative interview approach (N = 30), it explores the behaviors, intentions, and perceptions that underpin how potential migrants understand labor migration risks. It establishes a robust connection between risk perception and the active pursuit of pertinent information. The study offers a matrix that illustrates the interplay between migration risk perception (high vs. low) and type of risk (individual vs. systemic). It finds that respondents in the High Risk — Systemic group refrain from seeking information, viewing all migration as inherently highly risky due to systemic factors beyond their control. The Low Risk — Systemic group believes migration carries relatively low risks, but that these risks are not individually manageable. The Low Risk — Individual group engages passively with safe migration information because of their perception of low risk. The High Risk — Individual group actively seeks information about safe migration, believing that they can overcome potential risks. In short, the study finds that potential migrants’ perception and understanding of risk shapes their engagement with safe migration information. The study also highlights gender disparities in risk perception and response. While women emphasize concerns tied to sexual exploitation and separation from family, men are more likely to fear fatal accidents and industry-specific exploitation. The study’s findings should inform the development of policy frameworks and migration information campaigns that reflect diverse perceptions and understandings of migration risk. Policy Recommendations: To mitigate migration risks and promote safer practices, policymakers at various levels, including the Moldovan government, international agencies (e.g., IOM, UNHCR, and ILO), non-governmental organizations (like LaStrada), and EU bodies, should: 1. Tailor public education and communication campaigns for diverse risk factors, using different messaging for varying risk perceptions. 2. Address gender-specific concerns with practical advice and resources. 3. Develop comprehensive risk awareness programs covering physical, emotional, and psychological challenges. 4. Use diverse channels (hotlines, online platforms, and workshops) to reach a broader audience. 5. Strengthen embassy services, ensuring staff are informed about migration risks, challenges, and effective outreach and education strategies. 6. Collaborate with mental health professionals to provide psychosocial support. 7. Engage returnee migrants as credible sources of information and advice. 8. Include migration topics in school curricula to enhance migration risk preparedness. By acknowledging risk perception and adapting information strategies accordingly, policymakers at international, regional, and local levels can create effective initiatives and communicating strategies for secure migration.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Risk, and Gender
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

26. 2022 Georgia Risk-Limiting Audit Final Report

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center observed the post-election, risk-limiting audit for the 2022 midterm elections in Georgia. This final report summarizes the Center’s observations, findings, and recommendations.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Risk, and Audit
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Georgia

27. Preventing War in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will require the parties to rebuild trust by shoring up decades-old understandings.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Risk, and Coercion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Taiwan Strait

28. Thin Ice in the Himalayas: Handling the India-China Border Dispute

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Frictions along the India-China frontier have heated up following a burst of fighting in 2020, the first in decades. The danger of more will lurk as long as the countries disagree over where the line lies. Both should take steps to manage the mounting risks.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Borders, and Risk
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Himalayas

29. Anticorruption Guidance for Partners of State-Owned Enterprises

Author:
Alexandra Gillies and Tom Shipley
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Drawing on broad stakeholder consultations, corruption case analysis and reviews of existing best practices, this guidance proposes concrete measures that international oil, gas a mining companies should adopt to reduce corruption risks in their work with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the oil, gas and mining industries. It also recommends measures SOEs can take to strengthen their anticorruption safeguards. The guidance for private-sector companies has five parts: Conducting due diligence on SOEs; Avoiding high-risk agents; Responding to political exposure; Safeguarding payments; Protecting joint ventures from corruption. The final section identifies corresponding recommendations for SOEs in each of these five areas.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Business, Risk, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk

Author:
Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.
Topic:
Climate Change, Conflict, Risk, Social Capital, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus