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11. Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks

Author:
Hikmet Akyol and Selim Başar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This research examines the macroeconomic and institutional sources of individual, systemic, and systematic risks in the Turkish banking sector. The period between 2008:Q3 and 2019:Q3 of the nine deposit banks selected for this purpose were estimated using panel data analysis estimators. The results indicate that selected macroeconomic and institutional variables affect banking risks. These findings are important for revealing the institutional and macroeconomic sources of risks in the Turkish banking sector. Therefore, the results contain significant propositions for researchers, market participants, and politicians. Market participants and researchers can anticipate defaults and financial instability using selected macroeconomic and institutional variables. The estimation results reveal Turkish banks’ institutional soundness and financial performance strength. In addition, the extent to which banks are effective intermediaries in the sector was analysed. This research documented a strong link between global market indicators and banking risks.
Topic:
Finance, Macroeconomics, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12. If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction

Author:
Holden Karnofsky
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
If-then commitments are an emerging framework for preparing for risks from AI without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. The more attention and interest there is in these commitments, the faster a mature framework can progress.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Risk, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Controlling the danger: managing the risks of AI-enabled nuclear systems

Author:
Noah Greene
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Research on AI and nuclear weapons often discusses three broad categories of risk: technical risks, pitfalls in human-machine teaming, and strategic stability concerns. The potential solutions for mitigating these risks include international political declarations, United Nations level reporting, and a limited purpose AIenabled nuclear weapons treaty.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, Risk, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Cybersecurity and UN Peace Operations: Evolving Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Dirk Druet
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the growing potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities of UN peace operations. Fast-moving changes in the cyber capabilities of state and non-state actors, the changing nature of asymmetric warfare, and the positioning of the UN in relation to global and regional geopolitics are increasingly placing peace operations in the crosshairs of complex cybersecurity threats. In parallel to these external trends, internal trends in missions’ intelligence, surveillance, and data management technologies also make them more vulnerable to cyber threats. At the same time, there are opportunities for missions to leverage cybersecurity infrastructure to support the implementation of their mandates, including in the areas of mediation and political settlements and the protection of civil society actors. The paper provides an overview of the cyber threats facing peace operations and opportunities to leverage cybersecurity tools for mandate implementation. It also documents the operational and policy challenges that have arisen and the Secretariat’s efforts to address them. It concludes with several recommendations for the UN as peace operations seek to operate in an increasingly fraught political and cybersecurity environment: The Secretariat should develop cross-cutting operational concepts and guidance for cyber threat assessments. The Secretariat should articulate its understanding of its duty of care for staff privacy and develop operational guidance and expertise for mitigating threats to privacy. When facilitating political processes, peace operations should consider whether cybersecurity measures will be equally effective in deterring hacking attempts by all parties to ensure they do not exacerbate “information asymmetries.” The UN should explore the boundaries around missions evading or obstructing surveillance or intrusion activities by host states to secure their operations. The Secretariat should mitigate the volume of data exposed to external systems, including by deploying UN-owned and UN-operated intelligence and surveillance devices when possible.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Updating the EU strategy on China: co-existence while derisking through partnerships

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Abigaël Vasselier
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union-China relationship has deteriorated markedly since the EU introduced a three-part strategy in 2019 based on partnership, competition and systemic rivalry. Th e relationship has been undermined by China’s support for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its increasingly anti-Western foreign policy that aims to alter the international rules-based system. Meanwhile, the economic relationship is changing because of China’s structural deceleration and increasing self-reliance, coupled with the EU’s growing critical dependence on China, especially for digitalisation and decarbonisation. Europe must accept that relations with China will not return to their pre-pandemic state. While there is no need to change the overall strategy, the EU should seek co-existence with China while preserving EU values and interests. Cooperation is still needed to address global problems, including climate change, in which China plays an important role in finding solutions, but on which the EU cannot accept Chinese cooperation at any price. In terms of co-existence, the EU must continue to pursue de-risking – or reducing its exposure to China – especially for its energy and digital transitions. De-risking has started but more needs to be done to understand how it can be continued while not creating conflict. The EU should pursue a three-part approach: increase coherence and coordination with all European stakeholders, refi ne the EU economic-security strategy while accepting trade-offs, and seek partnerships as the best offensive tool. The 2024-2029 European Commission should foster discussion of China and coordination of strategic issues within a larger constituency. EU countries, with Commission coordination, need to be more involved in building a comprehensive approach, including by conducting national risk assessments and by shaping and implementing de-risking measures. On economic security, full implementation of current defensive instruments is needed, along with new protections, such as better coordination of export controls and a new outbound-investment screening mechanism. The trade-offs stemming from pursuing more security will need to be made explicit in order to mitigate them. On partnerships, the EU must look beyond the United States, working within the G7 and with other like-minded countries, such as Australia and South Korea, which have valuable experience of de-risking. Mutually beneficial and strategic cooperation agreements need to be brokered with relevant emerging and developing economies.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Economy, Risk, Trade, and Coexistence
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

16. Increasing Systemic Legal Risks in the EU: The Economic Impacts of Changes to the EU’s Product Liability Legislation

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU’s Product Liability Directive (PLD) determines the rules for strict product liability in the EU. It establishes a framework in which manufacturers’ liability is determined solely based on the presence of defects in the product, regardless of the manufacturer’s fault. The PLD is intended to serve as a “safety net” when fault-based or contractual liability rules do not offer sufficient compensation to consumers. It operates independently from contractual arrangements between businesses and consumers, and it cannot be weakened by contractual agreements between businesses and consumers. The PLD is a horizontal regulation that applies to a wide range of industries in the EU because it applies to all products available on the EU market. The recently proposed changes by the European Commission would increase systemic legal uncertainty for producers and sellers of technology-intensive goods and services in the EU. The impact assessment of the European Commission does not sufficiently account for changes to the PLD proposed in 2022. Nor does it sufficiently account for the major impacts of increased legal uncertainty for European businesses. Legislators in the Council and the European Parliament should slow negotiations to allow time for policymakers to collect more evidence on the impacts on businesses, insurers, and courts we detail in this paper. This would be an opportunity to improve regulatory quality in light of the high levels of legal uncertainty associated with the changes proposed by the Commission.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Legislation, and Risk
Political Geography:
Europe

17. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:
Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

18. Arms Control Tomorrow: Strategies to Mitigate the Risks of New and Emerging Technologies

Author:
Shannon Bugos
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Over recent years, the topic of new and emerging technologies with military applications has ignited a dynamic debate among defense officials, political leaders, diplomats, policy experts, and technical experts. This report provides an overview of the potentially destabilizing effects of several new and emerging technologies and their respective military applications. It aims to provide decision-makers with a better understanding of how to mitigate the risks and reduce the chances that a major power conflict or confrontation escalates to the nuclear level through a range of arms control and risk reduction measures. This report focuses on six significant, distinct emerging military capabilities: hypersonic weapons systems, direct offensive cyberoperations, offensive counterspace capabilities, artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled capabilities, drones, and lethal autonomous weapons systems. This report distills information and ideas from a series of workshops, involving dozens of technical and policy experts in each technology area, that the Arms Control Association conducted in 2021 and 2022. It identifies four overarching themes that highlight the greatest concerns over how the military employment of new and emerging technologies might increase the risk of nuclear weapons use. Increasing the pace of conflict. Increasing uncertainty. Reducing the human role. Incentivizing arms racing. This report identifies near-term risk mitigation measures that are likely achievable now or within the next five years: crisis communications systems, definition establishment, norms, unilateral declarations and actions, and confidence-building measures. This report also outlines long-term measures that are achievable within the next 10 years or beyond: arms control and risk reduction arrangements (e.g., treaties, agreements) that involve more than one country and are more formal than confidence-building measures, although not necessarily legally binding.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Safety Perceptions Index 2023 Foundation: Understanding the impact of risk around the world

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The Lloyd’s Register Foundation Safety Perceptions Index (SPI) provides a comprehensive assessment of worries and experiences of risk across 121 countries. The SPI is a unique body of work, providing a deeper understanding of citizens’ feelings of safety than any other publicly available source. The index is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on the basis of data from the World Risk Poll, a global survey designed by the Lloyd’s Register Foundation and administered by Gallup. This is the second edition of the SPI. The report analyses two iterations of the World Risk Poll, the first conducted in 2019 and the second conducted in 2021; providing commentary, trends, and insights into these two sets of data. One of the defining features of the research is that one survey was administered prior to the onset of COVID-19 and the other was administered afterwards, allowing for an analysis of the effects of the pandemic on perceptions of risk. This report will be useful in the decades ahead as it will give insight into likely shifts in perceptions of risk for any future pandemics that may occur. The SPI measures two themes, worry about harm and recent experience of serious harm, analysing them across five domains: food and water, violent crime, severe weather, mental health, and workplace safety. These themes and domains are combined into a composite score which reflects perceptions of safety by country and region.The past several years have been characterised by rising feelings of uncertainty worldwide. Central to this shift has been the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted the functioning of social institutions as well as patterns of individual and collective behaviour in countless ways.1 Multiple studies have shown that the pandemic brought about increased levels of fear and anxiety across groups.2 Against this backdrop, there are two central findings of the 2023 SPI report. The first is that there were two parallel developments in people’s perceptions of safety over the last several years. On the one hand, the index showed no meaningful change in levels of worry and experience of harm in the aggregate, with an improvement of less than 0.1 percentage points recorded between 2019 and 2021. On the other hand, complementary data from the World Risk Poll points to a notable rise in generalised and non-specific feelings of fear and lack of safety throughout the world, with people becoming more fearful overall but less certain about the sources of potential threats.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Risk, Peace, Threat Perception, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. THE REGIONAL DIMENSION OF CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC IN THE LIGHT OF DECENTRALIZATION

Author:
Yevheniy Haydanka
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article elucidates the relationship between decentralization and corruption risks in the Czech Republic. Economic inequality in the regions inevitably leads to corruption risks. The unemployment rate and the wage level determined the fragmentation of the Czech regions. Most Czech regions (8 out of 14) have an average unemployment rate (of 3-5%). The capital Prague (44 thousand korunas), as well as the Central Bohemian Region (35 thousand korunas), significantly differ from the rest of the Czech regions in wage level (within 31-32 thousand korunas). If the Czech regions are similar in the unemployment rate, there is a noticeable stratification between the capital and other regions. The findings of an expert survey among civil servants and deputies of regional Assemblies identified corruption and anti-corruption measures in the regions. The sphere of public administration is the most corrupt. Partially corrupt is the provision of administrative services. The greatest corruption risks result from the employees’ influence on funding sources (grants, subsidies and grants). On a 10-point scale, the average corruption in the regions is 5,8. More research prospects derive from studying corruption risks at the regional rather than national levels and expanding the geographical framework of the transition countries under research.
Topic:
Corruption, Risk, Unemployment, Decentralization, Wages, and Regionalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic