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121. China's Security Presence in the Middle East: Redlines and Guidelines for the United States

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information. The U.S. competition with China has reached the Middle East, where the longstanding American security infrastructure faces an increasing array of Chinese arms sales, military deployments, and investments in critical infrastructure. Beijing is keen to strengthen its own relationships in the region and views any reliance on the U.S. security umbrella as a “profound strategic vulnerability.” Yet Washington rightly regards these activities with skepticism, since an expanded Chinese security presence threatens to erode traditional partnerships and compromise sensitive information. For instance, discussions to sell F-35 aircraft to the UAE broke down over American concerns about Chinese-Emirati cooperation, including in the security realm. In this timely Policy Note—illustrated with informative graphics—security expert Grant Rumley traces the contours of China’s Middle East ambitions and where the perils lie for the United States. An effective U.S. response, he contends, will require assessing risk in each specific theater and acting appropriately, thereby ensuring a productive, sustainable American presence in this pivotal region.
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Partnerships, and Weapons
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

122. China Increases Support for Pakistan’s Naval Modernization with an Eye on the Indian Ocean

Author:
Syed Fazl-e-Haider
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In mid-July, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and the Pakistan Navy (PN) held the “Sea Guardians-2” exercise in the waters off Shanghai (China Brief, October 4; Pakistan Television, July 12). The joint naval drills focused on neutralizing maritime security threats, particularly those that might jeopardize strategic sea lanes. The bilateral exercise also included joint target practice, anti-submarine, anti-aircraft and anti-missile drills (China Military Online [CMO], July 10). The drills built on the first iteration of the exercise, Sea Guardians-1, which was held in January 2020 in the North Arabian Sea off Karachi, Pakistan. The participation in these exercises of the guided missile frigate Taimur, which is the most advanced warship built by China for the PN, demonstrates the increasing level of Chinese support for the training and modernization of Pakistan’s naval forces (Global Times, July 10). Bilateral military ties, which are a mainstay of the China-Pakistan all-weather friendship and strategic partnership, have strengthened in recent years. China is the main supplier of military equipment to Pakistan, which from 2017-2021 absorbed nearly 47 percent of all Chinese arms exports (China Brief, March 25). In a move to further deepen defense ties, China provided Pakistan with J-10C multi-role fighters in late 2021 (South Asian Voices , April 12). In June, a high-powered Pakistani delegation comprising top brass from the army, navy and air force paid a visit to China at a time when tensions between China and the West were on the rise (CMO, June 12). The visit was part of the Pakistan-China Joint Military Cooperation Committee (PCJMCC), which is the highest body involved in facilitating bilateral defense cooperation. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa also attended the top-level committee’s meeting, along with senior-most counterparts in the PLA. Both countries vowed to further deepen their strategic partnership in challenging times and enhance their joint military cooperation in training, technology and counterterrorism (Express Tribune , June 12).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Navy, Modernization, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, Asia, and Indian Ocean

123. China and Russia: Shackled to a Corpse?

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Almost as soon as Russian tanks began their bloody crawl toward Kyiv, debate ensued over whether Chinese leaders had advance knowledge of the Kremlin’s war plans. The broader Chinese foreign policy community was certainly dumbstruck as U.S. warnings of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine were discounted as geopolitical ploys (Global Times, February 18; Stimson, February 28). However, given the highly personalized nature of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership— President Xi Jinping has met with his counterpart Vladimir Putin 38 times since 2013 — the top leadership was assuredly not entirely in the dark (FMPRC, December 15, 2021). As competition with the U.S. has intensified under Xi, Russia has consolidated its position as China’s most consequential strategic partner. However, China is increasingly concerned that Putin’s war and the resultant international backlash are severely damaging Russia. Some elites have also condemned Russia’s brutality and unilateral aggression, which underscores mounting anxiety that China is tied to a partner that is both weaker and more belligerent than it had previously realized (China Times, March 1). In the current situation, Xi comes off poorly regardless of how much foreknowledge he possessed. If he was naïve about Putin’s designs, he looks weak for allowing a lesser partner to drag China into a confrontation with the West. If Xi cut Putin a blank check for aggression, this may intensify muted but pointed domestic criticism of his foreign policy acumen including his decision to privilege ties with Russia over relations with the West, which are more integral to China’s economic and technological development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eastern Europe, and Asia

124. China and Pakistan: Strains in the All-Weather Partnership?

Author:
Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
China and Pakistan have formally launched Phase II of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship venture in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Beijing on February 3-6 for the Winter Olympics, the two sides signed a Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation to kick off the second phase of CPEC, which will focus on the development and industrialization of special economic zones (SEZs) (Pakistan Today, February 4). The joint statement issued at the end of Khan’s visit noted that “the two sides signed or concluded a number of agreements / MoUs, covering bilateral cooperation in areas of economic and technical, industry, investment, infrastructure, space, vaccine, digitalization, standardization, disaster management, culture, sports, and vocational education” (for the full text of the China-Pakistan joint statement see People’s Republic of China, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 6). According to Pakistan’s Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on CPEC Affairs Khalid Mansoor, CPEC’s second phase will attract multi-billion dollar investments to Pakistan. Representatives of around 500 Chinese companies met with Khan in Beijing, and per the Prime Minister’s remarks to Pakistani media following the visit, expressed interest in investing in industry, agriculture, information technology, infrastructure, housing and construction, mining and oil refining (Business Recorder, February 8). The big question, however, is whether this ostensible interest from Chinese businesses will translate into hard cash commitments. China is concerned over the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. In the run-up to Khan’s visit, Pakistani militants carried out several major attacks in the country. On January 17, the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), also known as Pakistani Taliban, opened fire on a security checkpoint in Islamabad (Dawn, January 19). A few days later, the newly formed Baluch Nationalist Army (BNA) carried out a bomb attack in a busy market in Lahore (Express Tribune, January 20). Hours before Khan left for China, Baluch militants struck again, this time attacking security forces’ camps in Panjgur and Naushki in Baluchistan province in southwestern Pakistan (Dawn, February 2). Then on February 5, the TTP killed five Frontier Corps personnel at a security checkpoint in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Dawn, February 7). Last year, Pakistan suffered 207 terrorist attacks, a 42% increase over 2020, according to a study by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, an independent think-tank based in Islamabad. Fatalities from terror attacks increased by 51% over the previous year. [1] Worryingly for Beijing, Pakistani militant groups have increasingly threatened Chinese nationals. Four of the attacks in 2021 targeted Chinese nationals and at least 17 Chinese workers were killed in these attacks. As China and Pakistan move into Phase II of CPEC, the safety of Chinese projects and personnel in Pakistan will be a key concern.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

125. The rise of mega-regions

Author:
Zachary Paikan, Ilke Toygür, Martin Quencez, and Stephen R. Nagy
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
For the past several years, two ‘mega-regions’ have been forming in global politics – Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Both have become a shorthand for shaping the future rules and norms of international order in the face of a global power shift. ‘Eurasia’ has served to illustrate Moscow’s commitment to deepening its strategic partnership with Beijing and creating a new distribution of influence in world politics – one in which the West lies at the periphery rather than the centre. Meanwhile, the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has taken off in response to the deepening Sino-American rivalry and (disputed) assertions of a budding global contest between democracies and autocracies. This CEPS In-Depth Analysis paper offers an overview of these two mega-regions, including the key geopolitical and governance questions that have been shaping them over recent years and whether great power dynamics in these theatres have shifted since the start of the Ukraine War. It concludes with observations on how these shifts stand to structure transatlantic relations beyond the horizon of the current war.
Topic:
Partnerships, Geopolitics, Alliance, Transatlantic Relations, and International Order
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Indo-Pacific

126. The Eastern Partnership under the test of war in Ukraine

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On the eve of the fifth enlargement of the European Union in 2003, the neighbourhood policy was launched to “prevent further lines of division in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity” and to create, according to a now famous concept, a “circle of friends”. The Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

127. China - A Non-neutral Party in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the Russo-Ukrainian war, we cannot call the position of one of the main challenges of the 21st century, communist China, “neutral”. Beijing’s position was obvious even before the war: it is pro-Russian, clearly antiWestern, and especially anti-American. China does not condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, nor does it call it an invasion. At the same time, reports have emerged of the prospect of Beijing providing military assistance to Moscow, and it is not beyond imagination that China will also help Moscow avoid the sanctions. The course of the war, and time, will show China’s level of support for its strategic partner, Russia. However, despite Moscow’s support and negative attitude towards the West, Beijing will still act according to its long-term strategic goals, and if China distances itself from Russia on specific issues, it will not be because of solidarity with Ukraine, but for its own strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

128. Growing stronger together: Towards an EU–ASEAN digital partnership?

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Brigitte Dekker
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In December 2021, the EU and Singapore launched talks towards a digital partnership agreement that could prove a building block for broader EU–ASEAN cooperation. This Report assesses the strategic value of increased cooperation in the field of digital connectivity, also acknowledged in the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy of September 2021, and considers the practical challenges and opportunities of stronger ties between the two blocs and their member states in this increasingly important realm. The authors argue that three domains could form the basis of a future, shared, EU–ASEAN approach to digital connectivity: (1) digital infrastructure; (2) data governance and digital trade regulation; and (3) the digital economy and financial technologies (fintech). A bloc-to-bloc approach should run in parallel with strengthened ties by the EU and its member states with specific ASEAN member states. Together, these building blocks will serve EU and ASEAN long-term interests, promoting economic competitiveness and inclusive growth, as well as openness, transparency and freedom in the digital realm.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, ASEAN, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Singapore

129. Resilient Industry Ecochains for the US-Taiwan Partnership

Author:
Stephen Su
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Stephen Su, Senior Vice President and General Director of the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) of Taiwan, explains that the "United States and Taiwan can work closely together to develop resilient industry ecochains for key industries such as semiconductors, telecommunications, automotive, biotech, machinery, etc."
Topic:
Partnerships, Economy, Industry, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

130. India and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Author:
Surupa Gupta
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Surupa Gupta, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at University of Mary Washington, explains that "[e]ven though India has emerged as an active and engaged member of the Quad, its decision to join IPEF—a US-led framework for economic cooperation in the Indo Pacific—was not a foregone conclusion. "
Topic:
Economics, Partnerships, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific