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51. Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth: Exploring the Case of India

Author:
Yoon Jae Ro and Jiwon Park
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study investigates the significance of India's emergence as the world's most populous nation in 2023, surpassing China, and its consequential implications for economic growth. With a focus on the demographic dividend driven by working-age and prime-age populations, we analyze the effects of shifting age distribution on India's labor force, labor market, and economic drivers. Extending the study period by integrating additional datasets, we examine per capita GDP growth, sectoral value-added, and employment shifts at the state level. Results reveal limited influence on per capita output, but significant sectoral effects. Notably, prime age composition within the working-age population emerges as a key driver of economic growth.
Topic:
Demographics, Economic Growth, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

52. Displaced Ukrainians in European Labor Markets: Leveraging Innovations for More Inclusive Integration

Author:
Maria Vincenza Desiderio and Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has led millions of displaced Ukrainians to seek protection in European countries since February 2022, and welcoming new arrivals has put enormous pressure on reception and integration systems. But with the right supports, displaced Ukrainians could also potentially help address some of Europe’s pervasive skill shortages. Many newcomers have a tertiary education, and the EU decision to activate the Temporary Protection Directive has provided swift access to clear residence and work rights. Early evidence suggests that displaced Ukrainians’ labor market entry is progressing well, with many working-age adults finding jobs. However, challenges such as language barriers, difficulties getting foreign credentials recognized, and trouble securing child care have limited some Ukrainians’ ability to enter the labor market and find a job commensurate with their skills. A desire among many to return to Ukraine, as circumstances allow, is also shaping their decisions about finding work and participating in integration and training programs. This report explores how displaced Ukrainians are faring in European labor markets, including what is known about their early labor market outcomes and the barriers they face when seeking work. It also examines how governments can work together with civil society and employers to help new arrivals find quality jobs and, in doing so, help European societies benefit from their skills.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Refugees, Innovation, Integration, Labor Market, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

53. What Role Can Immigration Play in Addressing Current and Future Labor Shortages?

Author:
Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Labor shortages are a pressing concern for policymakers and employers alike in many countries around the world. As pandemic-era economic disruptions have collided with longer-running workforce trends, these shortages have become more acute but also hard to predict. Immigration can play an important role in addressing labor shortages—and in some economies and sectors, already does. But there is a robust debate about the extent to which countries should rely on admitting immigrants to address these shortages, and how this should be balanced against other, more far-reaching policy interventions in education and training, labor, and social policy that would boost the labor market participation of resident native- and foreign-born workers. This policy brief examines how immigration can help address labor shortages, the trade-offs that governments must navigate, and current and potential approaches to factoring labor shortages into economic immigration policies. The brief is part of a series of policy analyses and blueprints being generated under MPI’s Global Skills and Talent Initiative, which is exploring the role that immigration can play in addressing workforce needs and skills gaps in rapidly evolving labor markets.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Employment, Vocational Training, COVID-19, Recruitment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. A Winding Path to Integration: Venezuelan Migrants’ Regularization and Labor Market Prospects

Author:
Diego Chaves-González and Natalia Delgado
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The movement of more than 6 million Venezuelans to other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean has challenged the region’s governments to rethink how they manage mobility across their borders and the integration of immigrants within them. Many have launched programs to regularize Venezuelan newcomers. However, the status offered by regularization measures has varied enormously, including in terms of duration and the rights granted. These differences have had implications for Venezuelans’ ability to find work, access services, and plan for the future. This report examines how regularization efforts have affected Venezuelans’ labor market integration. It looks closely at the case of Colombia, which has received the most displaced Venezuelans and operated the region’s largest regularization program, as well as at other countries that make up the Quito Process, which has made Venezuelans’ socioeconomic integration a top priority. Among other sources, the study draws on interviews and focus groups with policy and regional experts, migrants, integration-focused organizations, and private-sector stakeholders. Topics explored include the impacts of granting short- versus long-term regular status, varying rates of labor market informality and labor enforcement, and the significant human capital Venezuelans have brought to many countries. The report also offers recommendations for countries as they continue to refine their strategies for granting Venezuelans regular status and fostering their integration.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Employment, Integration, Labor Market, and Skills
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

55. Structural Change Reversed: A Comparative Analysis Pre- and Post-2015

Author:
Santosh Mehrotra
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Since the well-known research of Simon Kuznets (Nobel Prize Winner in Economics), the structural transformation of all economies is characterised by two simultaneous phenomena. The first is that there is a structural shift in terms of the contribution of the three main sectors—agriculture, industry, and services—to the gross domestic product in favour of non-farm sectors; the second involves total employment in the economy—with a shift away from agriculture towards the other two main sectors of economic activity—first towards industry, followed by services. This paper is motivated by some major developments that have occurred in the macro-economy in India, and their implications for the labour market. It is an attempt to understand these significant changes to the labour market in agriculture in particular, which accounted for around two-fifths of India’s total workforce of 520 million in 2021. This paper is organised in three sections. Section 1 shows that structural transformation, which had been relatively slow for a significant part of the last century, gathered momentum during the first decade of the current century. It has been rather stalled for the last six years and has been reversed by poor economic policies and management. Section 2 examines how workers in agriculture have had to respond to the changed economic conditions and nonfarm labour market trends. The changes have only served to increase rural distress. In other words, far from farmers’ income having doubled between 2015 and 2022, as the Union government had attempted, the quality of work in agriculture has worsened, wages have fallen, and women (and men) who had exited agriculture have been forced to rejoin it. This is a form of disguised unemployment, with workers surviving merely on account of safety nets like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 (MGNREGA) or cash transfer (PM Kisan) or Public Distribution System (PDS) rations (Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojna [PMGKY] was free during the pandemic). Section 3 examines the reasons for the emergence of these worsening labour market conditions. The concluding section summarises the findings.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Employment, Macroeconomics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

56. Active labour market policies response to Ukrainian citizens entering the European Union’s labour market

Author:
Oleksandra Struk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article contains a thorough analysis of the European active labour market policies in the face of the influx of Ukrainians following the outbreak of the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. An overview of the temporary protection regulations for Ukrainians adopted by the EU states made it possible to determine the conditions of legal residence and labour market access. Statistical data and surveys conducted by international institutions became the basis for identification the Ukrainian refugee’s profile on the EU labour market. Thus, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens staying in EU states are women with higher-than-average educational level; good or high proficiency in English; who used to work before the war with a non-negligible share in the health and education sectors; and who often work below their qualification. In addition, an analytical comparison was undertaken to highlight the image of migrants who came to Poland before February 24, 2022 and that of war refugees who have arrived following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Acceptance of Ukrainians by Poles, remarkable similarities between countries in terms of culture, favourable access to the labour market and healthcare are of the utmost significance for both economic migrants and war refugees.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

57. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

58. Working Conditions in Madagascar’s Apparel Industry: Comparing Export and Domestic Market Firms

Author:
Kristoffer Marslev and Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
The apparel export industry in Madagascar is one of the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet limited data exists on the conditions of its 180,000 predominantly female workers. This paper draws on new ILO quantitative and qualitative data generated in 2021 and 2022 to provide a systematic mapping of wages and working conditions in Madagascar’s apparel industry. The analysis shows important variations by end market. While workers in export firms are more likely to do excessive overtime and have inadequate rest time, they earn higher wages and enjoy better social protections such as paid leave, insurance, pension, and maternity. In contrast, nearly half of workers in firms producing for the domestic market earn incomes below the national minimum wage and have limited social benefits. These findings point to a paradox in which workers in export firms are more exploited in terms of their labor power but better off in terms of wages and benefits. The paper attributes these differences to the governance dynamics of global apparel supply chains, in which buyers on the one hand require suppliers to meet certain social standards and to comply with domestic labor laws, but on the other hand impose high flexibility demands that incentivize excessive overtime and work intensification. In both export and domestic market firms, however, wages fall severely below living wage benchmarks. In the context of high levels of absolute poverty in Madagascar and even lower incomes in agriculture, there is not much upwards pressure on wages and working conditions from the labor market.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Global Value Chains, Labor Market, Wages, Garment Industry, Work, and Apparel
Political Geography:
Africa and Madagascar

59. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:
Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

60. Globalisation and automation as sources of labour-market competition, and support for European Union unemployment insurance

Author:
Brian Burgoon, Gregorio Buzzelli, Francesco Nicoli, and Stefano Sacchi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Societies and economies are experiencing deep and intertwined structural changes that may unsettle the perceptions European citizens have of their economic and employment security. Such labour-market perceptions are likely in turn to alter people’s political positions. For instance, those worried by labour-market competition may prefer greater social protection to compensate for the accrued risk, or might prefer more closed economies where external borders provide protection (or the illusion of protection). We test these expectations with a conjoint experiment in 13 European countries on European-level social policy, studying how citizens’ demands align with parties’ political supply. Results broadly corroborate our expectations on the moderating effects of different types of concerns about perceived sources of labour-market competition on the features of preferred European-level social policy.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Unemployment, Automation, Labor Market, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe