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161. The Belt and Road Initiative as Ten Policy Commandments: Review of Xi’s Kazakhstan and Indonesia Launch Speeches

Author:
Lauren A. Johnson
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
In 2019 Foreign Policy described China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the most talked about and least defined buzzword of this decade”. Given that confusion and the importance of leader political speeches in China, especially those of current President Xi Jinping, it is surprising that the BRI literature has little in-depth analysed the two launch speeches of 2013. This article seeks to fill that gap with study of those speeches and focus on the five cooperationoriented areas announced in each. In comparative context those ten pillars appear not to be descended from New Era Chinese heaven but rather demonstrate substantive thematic overlap with the ten pillars of what was once relatively mainstream macroeconomic development policy, the Washington Consensus. Yet, in the case of the BRI there is a relative implicit implementation emphasis also. In forward context of contemporary global political economy tensions, the need to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7’s Build Back Better and the European Union’s Global Gateway ambitions also, this article may offer a timely fresh and comparative lens on the BRI.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

162. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project

Author:
Francesca Caruso
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
Topic:
Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

163. Constraints for Engagement with China: Dutch Ports and the BRI

Author:
Vera Kranenburg and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Rising US–China rivalry is shaping and constraining the relations between European states and China. The Netherlands is no exception and recent tensions with China have carried over to impact its trade and cooperative engagements with Beijing. The Netherlands never formally signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – the Chinese policy framework for international transport, communication and energy development. Nevertheless, the BRI is very relevant to the Netherlands, in particular for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and its ambition to preserve its role as a major logistical hub for trade with Europe.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Engagement, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Netherlands, and United States of America

164. Flood vulnerability of the critical infrastructure in Poland

Author:
Antoni Morawski
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to examine the significance of the flood hazard for the functioning of the critical infrastructure in Poland and to suggest adequate methods and strategies for reducing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding. The main research method used is institutional and legal analysis, which shows how critical infrastructure is protected in Poland. The context of climate change is taken into account, the consequences of which may trigger increased threat, and its significance is discussed. It is also shown that river floods of a pluvial character constitute the greatest hazard in Poland, as they pose a threat to urban areas where most critical infrastructure is located. The author lists methods which can be used to protect critical infrastructure from flooding. Examples of systems are also provided. A conclusion is formed that the approach to this problem should be comprehensive and make use of methods related to flood prevention, flood defence and flood mitigation, and above all, the relocation of elements of the critical infrastructure. It is evident that the best time to reduce the susceptibility of specific systems to floods is when they are developed or modernised by taking into account the flood risk. Lastly, the biggest problem of the critical infrastructure in Poland is highlighted, namely its identification once it is already built, which means its location had not been thought through.
Topic:
Security, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, and Flood
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

165. Protection of Polish critical infrastructure (CI) against air threats

Author:
Michał Piekarski and Karolina Wojtasik
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to analyse challenges related to protecting Polish critical infrastructure (CI) against air threats, such as UAVs, as a case study in a wider discussion on protection of critical infrastructure worldwide. The Polish legal definition of critical infrastructure and laws regarding the protection of such facilities are explained in the article in order to provide context. A review of scientific literature and open-source analysis of known air attacks on CI and the capabilities of air platforms are also included, with special attention being paid to unmanned systems. The threats themselves have been divided into two groups of scenarios: peacetime threats and crisis situations that have hybrid wartime scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the different capabilities of actors must be taken into account. Peacetime air threats include the use of commercially available drones. Those devices have limited capabilities, in terms of weaponisation, due to the limited weight of their cargo and the flight range. More advanced devices, including custom–built drones and military systems, can be supplied and used by state actors. Therefore, there are different requirements regarding protection systems. In peacetime, anti-drone systems are certainly recommended due to their capabilities and safety of use for bystanders. In more dangerous scenarios, typical military systems, including Very Short-Range Air Defence, Short-Range Air Defence and Medium Range Air Defence systems have to be employed or dedicated kinetic counter-drone systems deployed.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Hybrid Warfare, Non-Traditional Threats, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

166. Institutional corruption as the bane of critical infrastructure protection in Nigeria

Author:
Obinna Ukaeje
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Against a background of contemporary security challenges such as terrorism, violent extremism, insurgency, armed banditry, and separatist movements across the country, the study attempts to examine critical infrastructure protection. With the aid of largely secondary data, the study finds that there is an inextricable link between CIP and institutional corruption in Nigeria. Institutional corruption has been a major factor inhibiting effective critical infrastructure protection in Nigeria. This is because funds meant for the strengthening of operational effectiveness of the agencies are often diverted to other expenditure that does not have an effect on the operational strength of the agencies, thereby undermining their capacity to deliver on their mandates and increasing the vulnerability of the infrastructures to vandalism. The study recommends the adoption of a whole-of-society approach to CIP in Nigeria, because of its ability to block leakages and ensure transparency in the business of government as well as encouraging all stakeholders, the state, private, CSOs, the media, traditional institutions and all others involved, to share responsibilities in the protection of infrastructures as part of their concerns.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Infrastructure, Institutions, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

167. Protection of critical infrastructure in Norway – factors, actors and systems

Author:
Jakub M. Godzimirski
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main aim of this article is to examine how the issue of protecting critical infrastructure is addressed in Norway. To answer this question, the article addresses two important sub-questions – what is to be understood in the current historical and the specific Norwegian context as important elements of national critical infrastructure and what is the current understanding of risks and threats that this infrastructure should be protected against? This article is based on a detailed quantitative and qualitative examination of the official Norwegian documents and statements on questions related to various aspects of protecting critical infrastructure in Norway. In section one, structural factors that have played a major part in shaping Norwegian thinking about critical infrastructure are discussed. Section two provides a short summary of the current discussion on elements of critical infrastructure in Norway. In section three, the article discusses official Norwegian perceptions of threats and how they address questions related to critical infrastructure. The fourth section looks at the current official approach to protection of critical infrastructure in the country. The process of building the existing system for protecting critical infrastructure in Norway has been driven by both domestic and international concerns. The system should make it possible for citizens to meet their needs through access to various important societal functions, but it also needs to make it possible to address challenges that stem from the international environment.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

168. Intelligent terrorism as a security threat to critical infrastructure

Author:
Ossi Heino
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper considers terrorism as potentially ‘intelligent’, as a threat capable of abusing the critical infrastructures of societies and the related methods for knowledge production. Respectively, it sees critical infrastructures as attractive mediums for terrorist influence. The paper describes the contrast between the logic of providing security and certainty for critical infrastructures and the threat of terrorism, which is evolving in terms of its systemic capacities and intelligence. The way security is provided within critical infrastructures and the way intelligent terrorism could operate seem to separate from each other, thereby creating vulnerability. The paper seeks to enhance the conceptual understanding of this question by describing and closing the gap created by the intellectual separation. By doing so, the article will shed light on the conceptual dimension of the (in)security that has gone unnoticed in the interface between critical infrastructures and terrorism. It outlines the aforementioned dilemma and provides conceptual understanding that makes it easier to grasp and communicate further. The paper shows that the intellectual separation has weakened the possibilities for theoretically understanding and practically recognising terrorism as a phenomenon that is becoming systemically more conscious, more intelligent and potentially increasingly capable in a form of violence that exploits the basic structures of societies and the related knowledge methods for its own purposes. As a conclusion, the paper stresses the importance of profoundly critical tools. Such tools are often perceived as being undesirable or even counter-productive in figuring out the mechanism through the very means utilised in providing for security.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Rationality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

169. Preparing critical infrastructure for the future: Lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic

Author:
Amelia Tomalska
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to provide a view on the problem of insufficient state protection of critical infrastructure throughout the Covid-19 crisis. The paper looks at this problem with regard to the definition of critical infrastructure, its content, and also the limitations of current approaches to critical infrastructure protection. The examples relating to the Covid-19 crisis show the practices adopted and suggest possible steps forward. The research methodology implemented in this research is based on a critical analysis of the existing literature. The themes described in this paper show there is an urgent need to change current critical infrastructure protection approaches to a resilience-based modus operandi. Specifically, this paper highlights the need to shift the understanding of critical infrastructure from an object-oriented approach towards essential services/functions and to highlight its complex, socio- technical nature. It also highlights the deficiencies of current, prevention-based approaches to critical infrastructure protection such as the insufficient focus on identification and management process of vulnerabilities, especially in relation to (inter)dependencies resulting from interconnections with other systems. The gravity of the situation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, despite its negative connotations, can be used as an opportunity to examine the real condition of protection of critical infrastructure. The pandemic suggests that there is much left to be done and because of the unpredictability of the future, we need to start acting as soon as possible.
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Resilience, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

170. Abstraction-decomposition space for critical infrastructure systems: A framework for infrastructure planning and resilience policies

Author:
Stig Rune Sellevåg
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objective of this work has been to propose a framework that will aid governments with the development of more coherent and effective infrastructure planning and resilience policies through a system-of-systems approach that is grounded in theory for complex sociotechnical systems. The framework has been developed by using a work domain analysis (WDA). The WDA consists of an abstraction hierarchy analysis and a part-whole decomposition. Together, the abstraction hierarchy and the part-whole description form the abstraction-decomposition space (ADS) for which the system constraints apply. By imposing constraints, the WDA promotes design for adaptation where actors within the system are allowed to adapt their behaviour as they find appropriate without violating the system’s constraints. The proposed ADS consists of five levels of abstraction and four levels of decomposition. By applying the ADS, it will aid decision making related to the overall purposes of the critical infrastructure system, the values and priority measures that are used to assess the system’s progress towards the functional purposes, as well as formulation of infrastructure needs that are necessary to achieve the functional purposes. The framework is formative in the sense that it reveals how work can be done in the critical infrastructure system. This is important because it is not feasible to prescribe, describe and risk assess all possibilities for action that are available in complex sociotechnical systems, especially when dealing with unforeseen events. Future research should focus on finding science-based yet useful in practice ways for establishing values and priority measures that encompass sustainability issues and resilience standards.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Infrastructure, Resilience, Economic Security, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus