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61. Considerations on Inflation, Economic Growth and the 2 Percent Inflation Target

Author:
Robert Pollin and Hanae Bouazza
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper considers two basic questions with respect to inflation control, inflation targeting, and overall macroeconomic performance. The initial question is: what has been the justification in research for establishing an inflation target, and specifically a low inflation rate target of 2 – 3 percent, as the organizing principle and overarching goal of macroeconomic policy? The second question is: do we actually observe stronger macroeconomic performances—as measured in standard terms of GDP growth—when macro policy operates within the framework of such low inflation targets? Our answers to these questions are straightforward. First, no serious body of research has been produced that provides a clear justification for a 2 – 3 percent inflation target as the central goal of macroeconomic policy. Further, there is no body of evidence showing that economies at any level of development consistently experience stronger economic growth outcomes when inflation is maintained at less than 3 percent as opposed to higher inflation rates, certainly within a 4 – 5 percent inflation range and, in some circumstances, somewhat higher rates still. These findings are significant insofar as they open space for considering the set of measures other than contractionary monetary policies as viable inflation control tools. It is possible that these other measures do not operate as forcefully as contractionary monetary policy in bringing inflation down to a 2 – 3 percent target range. But our findings suggest that it is not typically necessary to force down inflation to such low levels, especially given that contractionary monetary policies succeed in controlling inflation primarily through the channel of raising mass unemployment and weakening workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. Inflation Targeting in Open Economies: The Contradictions of Determinacy and Stability

Author:
Esteban Perez-Caldentey and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Since 1999, more than half of Latin American countries have put in practice inflation targeting regimes with the objective of maintaining price stability within a low inflation environment. Building on previous work, we argue that the adoption of this monetary regime was the result of a policy shift that began with the Washington Consensus, and which materialized sequentially in increased financial openness, greater exchange rate flexibility, leading eventually to the implementation of inflation targeting. We further sustain that in the case of an open economy, the use of inflation targeting leads to incoherent and contradictory results that severely question its alleged superiority over other monetary frameworks. Finally, we posit the need for comprehensive regulatory frameworks to deal with the complex dynamics and transmission mechanisms that characterize economies that have a high degree of financial openness, such as those of Latin America.
Topic:
Regulation, Economy, Inflation, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Latin America

63. Lessons from the Inflation of 2021-202(?)

Author:
Asha Banerjee and Josh Bivens
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Starting in mid-2021, inflation in the United States rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s. This inflation followed on the heels of the economic shock imposed by the global COVID-19 pandemic and the significant fiscal policy interventions meant to smooth the fallout of this shock. As of October 2022, inflation – both headline and core measures stripping out food and energy prices – remained at historically high levels, though there are significant signs of softening in the near-future. This episode has sparked furious debate over the proper policy response, and has exposed how little innovative thinking has been done on inflation by either macroeconomists or policy analysts since the 1980s price acceleration was ended by the Volcker shock. This paper identifies a number of key questions raised by the inflationary outbreak of the past 18 months and offers some answers. An extremely brief summary of these questions and answers is provided below, with the rest of the paper expanding on these points.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

64. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment

Author:
Tomer Fadlon and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world's countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel's main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inflation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

65. German Economy Summer 2022: Slowly progressing recovery

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The German economy navigates troubled waters. The catch-up process in the contact-intensive service industries is continuing at a fast pace and companies in the manufacturing sector are sitting on well-filled order books. However, high inflation is reducing the purchasing power of disposable incomes and thus dampening the recovery in consumption. In addition, supply bottlenecks have recently worsened again due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, the recovery will regain strength only in the second half of the year, when prices will no longer rise as rapidly and supply bottlenecks will begin to ease. Overall, we expect GDP to increase by 2.1 percent this year, as in our spring forecast. In 2023, GDP will grow by 3.3 percent (spring forecast: 3.5 percent). At 7.4 percent, inflation in the current year will be higher than ever before in reunified Germany. Next year, inflation will probably remain high with 4.2 percent. The recovery in employment continues. Effective earnings will rise strongly, also because labor shortages have reached an all-time high. In the current year, however, the increase of about 5 percent will lag behind the rate of inflation. Public budget deficits will decline as revenues increase strongly and pandemic-related expenditures are reduced. In 2023, public debt in relation to GDP is expected to be slightly above 60 percent.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Inflation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

66. World economy in summer 2022: Inflation is curbing global growth

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Nils Sonnenberg, Stefan Kooths, and Jan Reents
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In a situation with already elevated inflation, the war in Ukraine and the zero-covid policy in China have led to additional upward pressures on prices and reinforced the global supply chain problems. Real wages are declining in many countries, dampening personal consumption expenditures even though households are often able to draw from a substantial amount of extra savings accumulated during the pandemic. Given the widespread inflationary pressures, central banks have shifted towards a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Against this backdrop, the outlook for global growth has weakened. We forecast global growth of 3.0 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 (measured in terms of purchasing-power parities), representing a reduction by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The forecast is based on the assumption that commodity prices have peaked, which would reduce inflationary pressures considerably going forward. However, there is the risk that inflation proves to be more persistent than central banks expect. In such a case, central banks would need to step on the brakes more than assumed, with the risk of a recession in advanced economies and a pronounced deterioration in financial conditions in emerging markets
Topic:
Security, Economics, Inflation, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. German Economy Spring 2022: Recovery at risk – Soaring Inflation

Author:
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelbock, Jan Reents, Dominik Groll, Stefan Kooths, Martin Ademmer, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The German economy is once again facing strong headwinds. The war in Ukraine is leading to rising commodity prices, new supply bottlenecks and dwindling sales opportunities. These factors will affect the German economy in different ways. Higher commodity prices reduce the purchasing power of disposable incomes and thus dampen private consumption. Moreover, new supply bottlenecks will dampen industrial production in the coming months. Finally, sales opportunities will deteriorate at least temporarily due to the sanctions and the increased uncertainty caused by the war. All this is hitting the economy in a phase in which the dampening effects of the pandemic are fading out and a strong recovery has begun to emerge. The dampening factors are cushioned because private households have accumulated large amounts of extra savings since the beginning of the pandemic, so that high inflation does not fully impact private consumption. In addition, industrial firms have an unusually high stock of orders, which will cushion the temporarily lower sales opportunities. As a result, the recovery is likely to continue this year, albeit at a noticeably slower pace than expected in winter. Overall, we now expect GDP to rise by 2.1 percent in this year (winter forecast: 4 percent) and by 3.5 percent in 2023 (winter forecast: 3.3 percent). With 5.8 percent inflation is likely to be higher this year than ever before in reunified Germany. Even if commodity prices stop rising and supply bottlenecks gradually ease, inflation is still likely to be unusually high at 3.4 percent next year, also because recent producer price increases are only gradually being passed through to consumers. The labor market is expected to remain robust. Public spending will rise in response to the war and its economic consequences, so that budget deficits will remain at elevated levels for a longer period.
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Inflation, and Purchasing Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

69. How the Inflation Reduction Act Will Drive Global Climate Action

Author:
Frances Colon, Cassidy Childs, and Anne Christianson
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The Inflation Reduction Act puts the United States on track to meeting its Paris Agreement commitment and to reclaiming the mantle of global climate leadership.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Inflation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

70. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF PUBLIC DEBT ON INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:
Ismail Mehmeti and Gazmeda Deda
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The nexus between public debt and inflation has been continuously investigated, but after the pandemic, it has returned to the center of researchers' courtesy. Consequently, this research examines the influences of public debt, interest rates, trade openness, GDP growth, and foreign direct investments on inflation. The study employs secondary data from 2008 to 2021 and incorporates a mixed econometric technique such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Arrellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond approach. The study's findings argue that public debt, interest rates, and trade openness significantly influence inflation, whereas GDP growth has a significantly negative impact. Because of the limited number of observations in the context of the research, we have not been able to evaluate the impact in the long term. The uniqueness and relevance of this research stem from its use of a combined approach, and in recent months, a continuous increase in inflation has been recorded throughout the world. The current findings and arguments inspire a productive discourse among academics, scholars, and policy-making entities.
Topic:
Inflation, Econometrics, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and North Macedonia