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41. Spring 2023 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Mitchell Orenstein, Holly Mayer, Alan McPherson, Ryan Langton, Gene Rotberg, and Philip Evanson
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
Contents: News from the Director. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 AHA Reception. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Spring 2023 Colloquium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Army War College Visit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Spring 2023 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Second CENFAD Emerging Scholar. . . . .5 Thanks to the Davis Fellow. . . . . . . . . . . . .5 News from the CENFAD Community. . . . . . .6 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 CENFAD Professor Artemy Kalinovsky Introduces New Course on the War in Ukraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Mitchell Orenstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Dr. Holly Mayer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Short Essay, “So You Want to Be President,” by Gene Rotberg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Short Essay, “The Brazilian Presidential Election of 2022 and the Crisis in Brazilian Democracy,” by Dr. Philip Evanson . . . . . . . .27 Book Reviews The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, reviewed by Graydon Dennison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Topic:
Diplomacy, Globalization, History, Elections, Strategic Competition, and Strategy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

42. America's payoff from engaging in world markets since 1950 was almost $2.6 trillion in 2022

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
International trade may not be as popular in the United States as it once was, but this updated PIIE study demonstrates that the payoff to the US economy from globalization has been significant. Gains from trade since 1950, facilitated by vastly improved transportation and communications, added up to $2.6 trillion in 2022, lifting US GDP by 10 percent. These gains averaged $7,800 per person and $19,500 per household in the United States in 2022. Despite these gains, trade barriers were erected under former president Donald Trump and continued under the Biden administration, spurred by concerns over trade-related job loss. These protectionist policies, coupled with the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, have slowed globalization. To be sure, trade has inflicted losses on certain US workers. Between 2001 and 2016, more than 300,000 workers annually lost or switched jobs because of imports. In comparison, more than 50 million workers change jobs each year. Americans enjoy large but less visible gains from trade through cheaper and more varied products and increased productivity at firms. Instead of restricting trade, US policymakers should adopt better safety nets for displaced workers and ensure that economic growth is more widely shared.
Topic:
Globalization, Markets, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

43. The Art of the Mini-Deals: The Invisible Part of EU Trade Policy

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Trade policy is usually defined by the kinds of deals it can strike. Typically, the attention is focussed either on big multilateral trade rounds or on bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). This policy brief goes beyond the conventional wisdom and sheds light on other trade agreements (trade mini-deals), which so far were less in the focus of EU trade experts and academics. The paper offers a preliminary assessment and a taxonomy of these trade mini-deals. The main takeaway is that there is a lot more going on than what meets the eye when it comes to EU trade policy. In reality, FTAs are just the tip of the trade policy iceberg. When taking a systematic look, it becomes apparent that FTAs are only one of the many trade policy instruments. Apart from FTAs, the EU has signed a much larger number of trade mini-deals that have, potentially, a significant impact on EU trade. The paper concludes with a short assessment of the role such mini-deals could play in the future, given the evolving nature of trade policy objectives and the growing complexity of international trade negotiations.
Topic:
Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe

44. Globalisation and automation as sources of labour-market competition, and support for European Union unemployment insurance

Author:
Brian Burgoon, Gregorio Buzzelli, Francesco Nicoli, and Stefano Sacchi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Societies and economies are experiencing deep and intertwined structural changes that may unsettle the perceptions European citizens have of their economic and employment security. Such labour-market perceptions are likely in turn to alter people’s political positions. For instance, those worried by labour-market competition may prefer greater social protection to compensate for the accrued risk, or might prefer more closed economies where external borders provide protection (or the illusion of protection). We test these expectations with a conjoint experiment in 13 European countries on European-level social policy, studying how citizens’ demands align with parties’ political supply. Results broadly corroborate our expectations on the moderating effects of different types of concerns about perceived sources of labour-market competition on the features of preferred European-level social policy.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Unemployment, Automation, Labor Market, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

45. The World Needs a New Socialist Development Theory

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 66 examines the historical and current thinking on the question of development and offers an outline for a new socialist development theory.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Neoliberalism, Economic Theory, and Socialism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years

Author:
Frédéric Docquier, Lucas Guichard, Stefano Iandolo, Hillel Rapoport, Riccardo Turati, and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We analyze the long-run evolution of populism and explore the role of globalization in shaping such evolution. We use an imbalanced panel of 628 national elections in 55 countries over 60 years. A rst novelty is our reliance on both standard (e.g., the "volume margin", or vote share of populist parties) and new (e.g., the "mean margin", a continuous vote-weighted average of populism scores of all parties) measures of the extent of populism. We show that levels of populism in the world have strongly fluctuated since the 1960s, peaking after each major economic crisis and reaching an all-time high – especially for right-wing populism in Europe – after the great recession of 2007-10. The second novelty is that when we investigate the "global" determinants of populism, we look at trade and immigration jointly and consider their size as well as their skill-structure. Using OLS, PPML and IV regressions, our results consistently suggest that populism responds to globalization shocks in a way which is closely linked to the skill structure of these shocks. Imports of low-skill labor intensive goods increase both total and right-wing populism at the volume and mean margins, and more so in times of de-industrialization and of internet expansion. Low-skill immigration, on the other hand, tends to induce a transfer of votes from left-wing to right-wing populist parties, apparently without aecting the total. Finally, imports of high-skill labor intensive goods, as well as high-skill immigration, tend to reduce the volume of populism.
Topic:
Globalization, Immigration, Elections, Populism, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program. The authors of the texts in this publication have taken an additional step by attempting, thoroughly and analytically, to foresee events in the near future within each of the covered subjects. The significance of this publication lies in its capacity to indicate, over an extended period, the primary directions in the development of foreign and security policies, international relations, the European Union, the third power influence, the existence of the global order, and the phenomenon of globalization. It explores how these aspects impact geopolitics, the Balkans, international relations, EU enlargement, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, the Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East. Starting this year, after each edition of the Belgrade Security Conference, this publication will be released to capture the essence of the discussed themes that defined the conference. Furthermore, it will expand these themes through analyses by the finest researchers of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, along with our external partners, friends of the institution, and other invited authors.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Globalization, European Union, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

48. China’s Development Path: Government, Business, and Globalization in an Innovating Economy

Author:
Yin Yi and William Lazonick
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We employ the “social conditions of innovative enterprise” framework to analyze the key determinants of China’s development path from the economic reforms of 1978 to the present. First, we focus on how government investments in human capabilities and physical infrastructure provided foundational support for the emergence of Chinese enterprises capable of technological learning. Second, we delve into the main modes by which Chinese firms engaged in technological learning from abroad—joint ventures with foreign multinationals, global value chains, and experienced high-tech returnees—that have contributed to industrial development in China. Third, we provide evidence on achievements in indigenous innovation—by which we mean improvements in national productive capabilities that build on learning from abroad and enable the innovating firms to engage in global competition—in the computer, automobile, communication-technology, and semiconductor-fabrication industries. Finally, we sketch out the implications of our approach for current debates on the role of innovation in China’s development path as it continues to unfold.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Innovation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

49. Times they are A-changin’: Africa at the Centre Stage of the new (II) Liberal World Order

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Amid a renewed Global Power competition, Africa’s abundance of natural resources, its exponential demographic development, and the current expansion of militant Islamist groups in the region, increases its strategic importance and pushes the continent to the center stage of international relations. This brief explores Africa’s position in this changing global context and examines major actors’ presence in, and stance towards, Africa on the global arena. It does this while arguing that as the competition for influence and access to resources in Africa is intensified, Western actors need to become clearer about their interests, avoid ill-perceived imposition of conditionalities – unless they are willing to risk access and follow them through – and adopt a case-by case approach to states on a continent as diverse as Africa.
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Liberal Order, and World System
Political Geography:
Africa

50. Imperial Preference

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
When the economy is globalised but decisions on policy are made in national capitals, states can choose to cooperate and run the global economy in their collective interest, even as they remain economic competitors. Or they can try to fence off their share of the market and force all others out – and economic competition quickly turns into geopolitical rivalry. Is this what will mark the 21st century?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Global Focus