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2. How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?
- Author:
- Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defi ned. Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO’s military research and development management decisions.
- Topic:
- NATO, Forecast, Research, and Military Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. The history of China’s future Lessons from the CIA
- Author:
- Dylan Levi King
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Predictions about China’s future made in the years since the Communist Party took power in 1949 have routinely cycled between two extremes of improbability: imminent collapse and indomitable ascent. These cycles came more slowly in the age before cable news and social media. The idea of the capture of the People’s Republic of China by Republic of China forces, or of the country tearing itself apart with political violence, held for years, before being wiped out by a popular impression of China’s meteoric rise and future economic domination.1 These cycles have now become supercharged for the attention economy. As one wave of forecasts of unstoppable lift-off and financial supremacy breaks, it is chased immediately by predictions of terminal economic dysfunction and social disintegration. For the expert, in danger of having their voice drowned out by amateur forecasters, it is difficult to inject the necessary rigour and nuance. For the layperson, it is hard to make any sense of the incessant deluge of contradictory and often extreme predictions. To wade into the forecast cycle is to risk being swept off one’s feet. To step away, and to simply avoid making any predictions is tempting, but it would be a grave error, given China’s economic gravity, immense population, status as a superpower and potential rival of NATO and allied countries. To get the future of the country wrong is to get the future of the planet wrong.
- Topic:
- History, Forecast, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
4. Security scenarios: 3D Printed Firearms
- Author:
- Samu Rautio and Mika Broms
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The aim of this study was to determine possible future scenarios if 3D printed firearms were to be manufactured in society. These scenarios provide a closer examination of the factors influencing the use of this relatively new method of firearms production. We reviewed the factors in 3D printed firearms that are relevant to various security authorities. Scenario analysis enables the examination of problem-solving for this multi-dimensional, multi-layered and multi-scale phenomenon. The topic was approached from a systemic perspective based on complexity thinking. The scenario-creation method employed five forecasting techniques applicable to the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation (Carleton, 2013). A context map created the basis for factor analysis, generational arcs, white spots and expert panel. The scenarios were developed into a structural format, allowing for the description of coherent entities. Upon analysing the scenarios, it was found that the ease of manufacturing 3D printed firearms could lead to a rapid increase in their numbers, potentially resulting in decreased internal and external security. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D-printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Weapons, Forecast, Manufacturing, and 3D Printing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus