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22. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security
- Author:
- Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Ukraine
23. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection
- Author:
- Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
24. Defining and Assessing Transformational Climate Change Adaptation: A framework for application to agri-food projects
- Author:
- Richard Kohl
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This discussion paper proposes a framework of four indicators of transformational adaptation – the breadth and depth of change, the intention to achieve transformation, scale and sustainability – and provides a framework to apply these indicators to four types of interventions in agri-food systems.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Sustainability, Adaptation, and Food Systems
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
25. Food Wars: Conflict, Hunger, and Globalization, 2023
- Author:
- Marc Cohen and Ellen Messer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Most wars of the late 20th and early 21st centuries have been “food wars”: food and hunger were used as weapons, food and food-related water and energy infrastructure were damaged intentionally or incidentally, and food insecurity persisted as a legacy of conflict destructiveness. Frequently, food insecurity, in turn, is a trigger or underlying cause of conflict. This paper analyzes 54 active conflict, refugee-hosting, and conflict legacy countries with populations in 2023 facing “crisis-level” acute food insecurity, i.e., at Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 3 or higher. In total, nearly 278 million people in these countries faced crisis-level hunger in 2023, accounting for 99% of the global population at IPC 3+ (281.6 million people). Analysis indicates that war-displacement-hunger crises occur in countries that continue to rely heavily on primary product exports. Paradoxically, peacebuilding efforts have often assumed that economic liberalization offers the best or only pathway to sustainable peace. Yet struggle for control over fungible primary commodities can fund more violence, increased inequality, continued instability, and the risk of renewed conflict. Agricultural export commodities are important sources of revenue for smallholder farmers and governments in conflict-affected, food-insecure countries. The conflict implications of export- and food-crop value chains are therefore crucial for future food-wars policy discussions and actions. Some efforts seek to link export crops to efforts to achieve peace, sustainable livelihoods, and environmental restoration. Other proposed solutions focus on adopting more holistic national development strategies, including food-systems approaches that protect and promote the right to food and livelihood security, as well as policy approaches and frameworks that might more effectively consider conflict, globalization, and climate change in food and nutrition policy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Hunger, Displacement, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Concerns for Food Security in the Mediterranean and Turkiye
- Author:
- Gun Unal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resumed after a hiatus of many months, it prompted the European Union and 17 other countries to cut off relations with Russia and Belarus. Most of the goods and food that people in the West use now come from foreign plantations and factories. The length of the war will significantly affect the extent to which it disrupts global food supplies and the intensity of the resulting food crisis. A symptom of this movement, and a warning against overreliance on Russian energy supplies, is the European Political Community. While the article’s focus is on the potential impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on food supplies throughout the world, it also serves to remind readers that there is more to a crisis than a shortage of Russian oil and gas.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Food, and Food Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean
27. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East
- Author:
- Munsu Kang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
28. Kazakhstan could lead Central Asia in mitigating the world’s energy and food shortages
- Author:
- Margarita Assenova, Ariel Cohen, and Wesley Hill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Russia’s war against Ukraine has had significant economic and political repercussions across the globe, including energy shortages and growing food insecurity. The war has forced Central Asian states to emphasize their independence from Moscow and accelerate their economic diversification. Central Asia—comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—has the potential to mitigate global shortages of energy, food, and fertilizers, caused by Russia’s war of aggression. The primary challenges for Central Asia and its Western partners remain diversifying export routes and expanding the capacity of alternative transportation corridors, especially the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Corridor, or the “Middle Corridor.” Kazakhstan is the leading producer of uranium ore in the world, grows 2 percent of the world’s wheat, and has major hydrocarbon reserves. Kazakhstan has the opportunity to lead Central Asia forward on the path to becoming an important supplier of energy, grain, fertilizers, and nuclear fuel to world markets. The energy crisis in Europe spurred renewed interest in the long-planned Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline. A potential United States and European Union ban on uranium civilian-reactor fuel exports from Russia could ensure Kazakhstan’s importance as a nuclear fuel exporter to Europe. To do this, Kazakhstan first needs to build its own conversion and enrichment facilities. This would allow it to double its share in the European market while utilizing the Middle Corridor. By encouraging Western investment, the states of Central Asia can become an important force in global commodity markets. To this end, they should implement the recently signed far-reaching regional agreements on cooperation and integration, so that they are less susceptible to “divide and conquer” strategies from predatory foreign powers and can exercise greater leverage when negotiating as a bloc. The US and the EU should also recognize that Central Asia’s energy and agricultural potential and resources make the region an area of strategic interest with promising business opportunities. The Central Asian states need to intensify their Western-oriented diplomatic outreach to attract support from state and private actors for investment and technological partnerships. Geographic proximity to Russia and China means Central Asian countries will always have economic relationships with Moscow and Beijing. But greater Western engagement in the region can diminish the chances for Russo-Sino cooperation in Central Asia. Russia’s war against Ukraine has weakened its geopolitical position and the Western sanctions on its economy have opened up new opportunities for Central Asia to supply critical energy and food commodities to world markets. Kazakhstan, as the region’s largest economy and its largest producer of oil, uranium, and grain, is well-positioned to lead this transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Food Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Kazakhstan
29. Budget Brief: Food Subsidy and the National Food Security Act
- Author:
- Jenny Susan John, Avani Kapur, and Ria Kasliwal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- Food Subsidy is provided by the Government of India (GoI) for the supply and distribution of foodgrains and other essential commodities. With the passing of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in 2013, nutritional security became a right. Under the Act, adequate quantities of quality food at affordable prices are to be provided to two-thirds of India’s population. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Allocations and releases under Food Subsidy; ■ Trends in foodgrain allocations, offtake, and distribution under NFSA and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY); ■ Coverage under NFSA; and ■ Implementation under ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ (ONORC).
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Food Security, and Public Spending
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
30. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman
- Author:
- Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, and Madhur Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- The National Programme of PM POSHAN, previously known as the National Scheme for Mid-Day Meals in schools (MDM), is a scheme to provide one hot cooked meal in government and government-aided schools, with an aim to improve the nutritional status of students. This brief reports on trends for PM POSHAN performance along the following parameters: ■ Past trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; ■ Coverage and provision of meals to students; and ■ Management Information System (MIS) and Automated Monitoring System (AMS).
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Food Security, Public Spending, and Schools
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India