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141. The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia: A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal?

Author:
Annika Seiler, Hannah Brown, and Samuel Matthews
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are a novel approach to intensifying ongoing efforts toward carbon neutrality, combining country-led strategies to decarbonize the energy sector and addressing development priorities resulting from the ensuing structural transformation with focused, long-term, and plurilateral partnerships. The launches of the $8.5 billion JETP for South Africa in 2021 and the $20.0 billion JETP for Indonesia in 2022 provide momentum for this effort. However, the legacies of coal-based power and modest renewable energy deployment in both countries present key challenges in the areas of political economy, policy alignment, finance, and supply chain development. This paper consolidates available information about these two JETPs and analyzes the approaches taken by South Africa and Indonesia, with the aim of providing a thought framework for these JETPs. It seeks to identify risks and gaps that could obstruct these JETPs’ advancement and to assess whether these JETPs can serve as blueprints for other countries looking to accelerate their move away from coal. Further, this paper highlights complementary action that could enhance the effectiveness of these JETPs and guide the development of similar partnerships in the future. The paper finds that while the JETPs for South Africa and Indonesia appear to deliver a blueprint for moving away from coal in their respective contexts, barriers, risks, and gaps call into question whether the targets can be delivered at the planned pace and scale.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Renewable Energy, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, South Africa, and Southeast Asia

142. Rethinking Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Major gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean seabed over the last ten years have fuelled ambitions to link the region’s energy markets and, in turn, bring its countries in conflict to the negotiating table. These great expectations have proven outsized, but smaller-scale objectives are achievable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Markets, Gas, and Energy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Eastern Mediterranean

143. What’s Next for Oil and Gas Methane Regulations

Author:
Ben Cahill
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Proposed methane regulations for the oil and gas industry are in the works in the United States and the European Union. These new rules—especially the U.S. regulations—could play a critical role in curbing emissions. This brief summarizes the next steps for methane rules on both sides of the Atlantic, including an overview of the emerging regulations in the United States and a synopsis of the EU methane legislation process. It identifies areas that require more analysis, such as how closely measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), leak detection and repair (LDAR), and reporting requirements will align. The brief also summarizes the current EU approach to reducing methane emissions from its gas imports as well as its longer-term aspirations, outlining the implications for gas exporters to Europe.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Sustainability, Methane, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

144. The Potential Role of Biohydrogen in Creating a Net-Zero World

Author:
Yushan Lou, Zhiyuan Fan, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
As the window of opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change closes, rapid decarbonization efforts have been turning to novel low-carbon hydrogen applications in the fields of heat, energy storage, and fuel cell technology as a potential solution for traditionally hard-to-abate sectors. Green hydrogen, in particular, defined as hydrogen produced from water electrolysis using renewable or low-carbon electricity, has received the lion’s share of attention. By comparison, little attention has been paid to biohydrogen (Bio-H2), a type of hydrogen produced from organic waste streams (e.g., agricultural waste) that can potentially yield a carbon-removing (or climate-positive) fuel when coupled with efficient CO2 absorption and subsequent storage. Indicatively, few hydrogen supply-and-demand forecasts or high-level hydrogen strategies mention it. However, Bio-H2 presents opportunities not only to establish a cyclical hydrogen system with waste converted into energy but also to address emissions that remain after all technically and economically feasible efforts have been made to eliminate them. This report, part of the Carbon Management Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy, explores the current state of play for Bio-H2 and its potential contribution to decarbonization efforts. The report begins with an analysis of the varying definitions and categorization of Bio-H2 in the literature, which may relate to its classification as both a hydrogen and a bioenergy with a diverse selection of sources and manufacturing pathways. Next, it assesses the crucial question of Bio-H2’s carbon intensity, which has additional specifications to those of blue hydrogen (defined as hydrogen manufactured from natural gas with carbon capture and storage [CCS]) and green hydrogen production, including land use, land use change, use of dedicated fuel crops (and associated land use issues), status and footprint of wastes (agricultural, forestry, and municipal), and avoided or reduced methane emissions. The report shows that if the biomass feedstock is not carefully selected and the energy consumed during its processing is not closely monitored and controlled, Bio-H2’s carbon footprint can potentially exceed that of fossil-based hydrogen today. Therefore, to avoid any potential negative climate impacts from utilizing Bio-H2, the assessment and governance of biomass feedstock for Bio-H2 manufacturing is critical. This report also shows that the potential carbon-removing value of Bio-H2, particularly the carbon-negative hydrogen derived from biomass wastes and CCS, far outweighs its energy value and that Bio-H2 can be manufactured using technologies that are relatively mature and near commercial stage. Nonetheless, because the carbon-negative value of Bio-H2 is contingent on the use of biomass wastes, which is a constrained resource, Bio-H2 should only be employed when the capacity of other decarbonization methods is limited. Key opportunities for its application present in hard-to-abate sectors with potential for manufacturing zero carbon or even carbon-negative steel or chemicals. In regions where waste biomass is abundant and underutilized (e.g., East or Southeast Asia), Bio-H2 can also enable a circular carbon economy and offer flexible carbon management solutions. For example, local food scraps and agricultural waste (e.g., rice husk) can be converted into fertilizers (created from hydrogen-derived ammonia), which can cut carbon emissions from food production.
Topic:
Methane, Carbon Emissions, Energy, Net Zero, and Biohydrogen
Political Geography:
Global Focus

145. Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Author:
Robert Kleinberg
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Methane emissions are second only to carbon dioxide emissions as a driver of human-induced climate change. Moreover, reducing the rate of methane emissions is the fastest and least disruptive way to moderate global temperature rise over the next several decades. The production of fossil fuels—principally coal, oil, and natural gas—is among the main sources of anthropogenic methane. As one of the world’s largest producers of fossil fuels and one of the largest emitters of fossil fuel methane, the Russian Federation is central to methane-mitigation efforts. However, Russia’s own estimates of methane emissions vary greatly from year to year and are at variance with estimates of international data collection and research institutes. As a result of a recent series of large reductions, the self-reported methane emission intensity of the Russian Federation oil and gas industry is now less than that of the U.S. oil and gas industry. If taken at face value, this estimate would make Russia a preferred provider of oil, gas, and petroleum products to importers sensitive to the upstream greenhouse gas emissions of their suppliers. Satellite-based, national-level estimates of Russian methane emissions are available, but the error bars are large and attributions to specific economic sectors unreliable. Satellites are more reliable in characterizing plume events, but the measurements are insensitive and account for only a small fraction of total emissions. Coal mine methane emissions are easier to characterize but harder to remediate than emissions from oil and gas sources. If Russia seeks to play a constructive role in climate change mitigation, it will need to collect accurate, quantitative information about the state of its emissions and introduce monitoring systems. It will also need to implement prudent mitigation measures. This report starts with an introduction to the sources of natural and anthropogenic methane and an explanation of why the fossil fuel industries in general and the Russian fossil fuel industries in particular have received a disproportionate share of interest. It then describes the difference between bottom-up and top-down measurements; reviews the reports of methane emissions in Russia and the United States, pointing out similarities and contrasts in methodology and consistency; and explores the capabilities and limitations of satellite-based measurements. The report then discusses how methane emissions from the fossil fuel industries can be mitigated with a two-part program before finally addressing policy issues with respect to styles of regulation. Although the focus of this report is the Russian Federation, many practices described here are common internationally, including in the United States. Therefore, this report’s descriptions of the current practices, capabilities, and limitations of various methods of estimating and mitigating methane emissions have general applicability. Similarly, recommendations for improvement and discussions of policy have global applications.
Topic:
Fossil Fuels, Industry, Methane, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

146. Does local infrastructure determine trust in local government councils?

Author:
Thomas Isbell, Wilfried Youmbi, and Daniel Kofi Banini
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The relationship between infrastructure and trust in local government is under-researched yet relevant for many countries. This paper examines how proximity to local infrastructure relates to public trust in local governments. Using data from the sixth round of the Afrobarometer survey in Cameroon, we construct an infrastructure indicator index to measure respondents’ proximity to local infrastructure. The index considers whether the respondent lives in a primary sampling unit (PSU) with access to electricity, water, cell phone service, and a sewerage system. It also takes into account whether the respondent lives in a PSU with paved roads where a school, police station, and health centre are within walking distance. We examine causality by using the presence or absence of a bank in the respondent’s PSU as an instrumental variable for local infrastructure. The study shows a robust positive and statistically significant relationship between proximity to infrastructure and public trust in local government. The results suggest that Cameroonians’ willingness to reward infrastructure in their neighbourhoods by trusting their government officials who might provide these facilities is indicative of a desire for bottom-up political accountability in the absence of citizens’ ability to hold top government officials accountable due to limited levels of democracy. Infrastructure provision and its variations have become an important measure of government performance, with communities that have better access to infrastructure conditions expressing greater trust in local government officials.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Institutions, Trust, Energy, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

147. France Walks Fine Line to Improve Relations with Both Algeria and Morocco

Author:
Amanda Dziubińska and Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The military upheavals between 2020 and 2023 that resulted in a reduction of France’s military presence in the Sahel highlighted the importance of relations with Morocco and Algeria to realise French interests in the region. Rebuilding this influence is hampered by the rivalry between the two countries over the status of Western Sahara. Necessary for improving relations will be the political will of Morocco and Algeria to cooperate with France in the area of migration and, on the part of France, greater involvement in the development of the two countries’ energy sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Migration, Territorial Disputes, Strategic Interests, and Energy
Political Geography:
France, Nigeria, Morocco, Sahel, and Western Sahara

148. Decarbonization alternatives for the maritime sector in Brazil

Author:
Rafaela Guedes, Guilherme Dantas, and Huang Ken Wei
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The report was elaborated in partnership with the Consulate of Norway in Rio de Janeiro. It addresses the economic significance of the maritime transportation sector, how to make it greener, and how Norway’s use of cleaner technologies and fuels in its vessels can serve as an inspiration for Brazil. The main objective of the study is to analyze possible strategies to reduce brazilian maritime transportation emissions, including the use of cleaner fuels and improvements in the energy efficiency of ships.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Maritime, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

149. Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia

Author:
Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Gustav Gressel, and Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine is likely to last many years, even if the violence may subside at times. To sustain Ukraine during this conflict, Europeans should draw up a four-part ‘long-war plan’. This plan would comprise military assistance to Ukraine in the form of a ‘security compact’; security assurances that respond to scenarios of Russian escalation; economic support, giving Ukraine access to the EU’s single market; and help to secure Ukraine’s energy supply. Besides its practical impact, this plan will signal Europeans’ commitment to assisting Ukraine, showing Kyiv, Moscow, and the wider global community that the EU is in it for the long haul. The long-war plan will also provide clarity to anxious publics in member states. Together, these proposals would protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and help create the long-term conditions for a resolution to the war – if and when a more constructive attitude emerges in the Kremlin.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Conflict, Military, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

150. Analysing India’s Economic Security Challenges

Author:
Gateway House
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Low global commodity prices, strong FDI inflows, and sustained growth have boosted the Indian economy in the preceding decade. This favourable economic climate, however, was disrupted by the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, exposing vulnerabilities in the global economic system. This paper focuses on India’s economic security challenges, particularly in six sectors - Food, Energy, Finance, Data, Space & Undersea Cables and Critical Minerals - and suggests possible courses of action.
Topic:
Food, Finance, Space, Commodities, Data, COVID-19, Minerals, Economic Security, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
South Asia and India