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71. Russia’s presidential election: Signalling repression and demobilizing opposition

Author:
Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Autocrats such as Vladimir Putin use elections strategically to demonstrate their capability to secure the necessary votes. This primarily benefits the regime’s inner circle and rent-seeking elites who rely on Putin’s presidency for their wealth. Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. Despite the oppressive political environment, opposition initiatives such as “Noon against Putin” manifest ongoing resistance. These actions were reflected in vote tallies abroad, where support for Putin was dramatically lower than in Russia. The post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions. The declining support for the war could further complicate the regime’s efforts to maintain a unified front. This could potentially impact Russia’s global standing and internal stability.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

72. The Taiwan election result: A strategic opportunity for a calmer Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mikael Mattlin and Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Taiwan held combined presidential and legislative elections last weekend. The international media generally expected that a win by Lai Ching-te (DPP), who in the past has favoured independence, would lead to tensions and even conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, there are several reasons why the opposite could be the case.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Elections, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

73. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

74. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

75. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:
Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

76. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:
Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

77. A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European politics is not simply divided between left and right, and between pro- and anti-European integration attitudes – but between different ‘crisis tribes’ whose members have been traumatised by key events. In the last decade, Europe has undergone crises of the economy, security, health, climate, and migration, which have created political identities that run through and between countries. Germany is the only country whose citizens select ‘immigration’ as the issue that has affected them above all else. In France and Denmark, people choose climate change as the most important crisis. Italians and Portuguese point to global economic turmoil. In Spain, Great Britain, and Romania, the covid-19 pandemic is the principal issue. Estonians, Poles, and Danes consider the war in Ukraine to be the most transformative of crises. In the upcoming European Parliament election, covid-19, the economy, and Ukraine are unlikely to be key mobilising issues. The climate and migration crises are dominating headlines and will be especially influential in how people vote.
Topic:
Climate Change, Immigration, Elections, Trauma, European Parliament, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

78. Moldova votes 2024: A choice between Russia and the EU

Author:
Hugo Blewett-Mundy
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Moldova stands at a critical juncture that will determine its position within Europe. In the elections on Sunday, the incumbent president Maia Sandu is seeking a second term and a positive result in the EU accession referendum to reaffirm her country’s path towards Europe. But the hybrid threat facing Moldova from Russia will not dissipate, particularly as next year’s pivotal parliamentary elections approach in the tiny former Soviet republic. Hugo Blewett-Mundy, a non-resident associate research fellow from EUROPEUM, analyses the current situation in Moldova and provides an outlook for the country in 2025.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

79. The International Dynamics of Venezuela’s Presidential Election

Author:
Luigi R. Einaudi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Over the last quarter century, an authoritarian and anti-US regime that began with popular support has destroyed Venezuela’s representative democracy, abused its oil economy, and driven more than seven million of its citizens into exile. It has now run out of steam. In the presidential elections held July 28, the regime disqualified opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, then engaged in persistent and creative harassment of a little-known substitute, only to be met with equally persistent and inventive efforts to make the vote count. The night of a record-breaking turnout, the regime announced its official candidate had won a close vote but provided no documentation. The next day, the opposition used official precinct returns to announce a better than two to one victory. A week later, the whole world knew President Nicolás Maduro had lost to Edmundo González Urrutia. But Maduro has remained in power, responding to all pressures with naked oppression clothed in Orwellian manipulations of domestic “legality”. The ultimate outcome of the political standoff remains unclear. Venezuela’s constitution calls for the inauguration of a new president to take place in January 2025. In September, González fled to Spain after being accused of conspiracy, forgery, and sabotage. Historically, exile has never been kind to those who seek it, but the cleavages in Venezuela are now so great that it is still timely to consider the international dynamics revealed by the 2024 presidential election.
Topic:
International Affairs, Elections, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

80. A Libyan Solution to a Libyan Challenge

Author:
Moin Kikhia
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Perhaps now is the time for the United Nations to step back. It is also time for our leaders, from East and West, to recognize that a joint way forward is possible. The eyes of the world may be fixed on Gaza, with Ukraine and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping also jostling for attention. But there is another country which the world should be watching intently. Libya is of key geostrategic importance. Five times larger than Germany, it occupies almost 2,000 kilometers of strategically sensitive Mediterranean coastline. It is also a conduit route for huge numbers of desperate migrants and refugees heading for Europe, with over 700,000 clustering along its shores. Libya also has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa today–a vital concern as the Ukraine conflict continues to threaten the security of Europe’s energy supplies. But it is also a country divided by guns and politics, with two competing governments dividing East and West, each backed and militarily supported by a range of competing foreign powers. In early 2021, the Government of National Unity (GNU) based in the West was put in place through a United Nations-backed process as an interim administration which was supposed to deliver democratic national elections in December of that same year, with the intention of establishing a more permanent Libyan government. Yet three years later the GNU remains in place in Tripoli. It justifies this persistence by arguing that the country is not ready for elections, and it still enjoys a grudging degree of international recognition due to its initial remit.
Topic:
United Nations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa