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61. Credit Rating Agencies versus the ‘Pink Tide’: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Argentina

Author:
Pedro Lange Machado
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This paper examines the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the ebbing ‘pink tide’. It claims that the actions of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch contributed to dismantling left-wing regimes in Latin America, to the benefit of their right-wing competitors. The methodology draws on case studies of Brazil and Argentina, where the governments of Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were replaced by those of Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri, respectively. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports and press releases the agencies issued during those transitions, which are analysed in the light of critical theories of their modus operandi and confronted with the political processes unfolding in both countries. This allows us to draw conclusions that are consistent with the presented argument, thereby contributing to advance the research agenda around the CRAs and to shed light on Brazil and Argentina’s recent critical presidential transitions.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, Credit Rating Agencies, and Pink Tide
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

62. The Return of the State and Its Alla Turca Version

Author:
Isik Özel and Ümit İzmen
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Economic nationalism and state intervention recently gained attraction in many countries including Turkey. This paper questions whether Turkey has changed its economic policy framework towards a statecentric model and, if so, whether these changes are well thought-out and sustainable. The examination of key areas of state capitalism, that is the monetary, industrial, trade, financial, and state economic enterprise (SEE) policies put forward in the officially adopted five-year plans and annual programs, suggests that the changes in the economic policy framework began after the 2008 global crisis and accelerated after the transition to a presidential system. Upon examination, the policy framework does not reflect a definitive, coherent, and wholistic approach but rather a pragmatic attitude that swings back and forth, which exposes the country to swings in the global system.
Topic:
Globalization, Economy, State, State Capitalism, and International Order
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

63. The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Author:
Fulya Memişoğlu, Altan Özkil, and Tuna Kılınç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Building upon empirical research, this study examines the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Syrian refugees in Turkey by analyzing its implications on employment, livelihood opportunities, and social cohesion. More specifically, it focuses on the experiences of Syrian refugees to examine the ways in which they exert their agency to cope with the structural constraints when faced with ‘multiple crises’ in host countries, intersecting with the dynamics of a ‘normalized refugee crisis’. Our findings from fieldwork conducted in the top six refugee-hosting cities reveal that loss of jobs, limited access to decent work, increased dependency on external financial assistance, and social exclusion have been some of the most acute effects of the pandemic on refugees. Meanwhile, the perceived effects that refugees have on the host community’s welfare trigger problems that impede social cohesion. All in all, the study intends to highlight the far-reaching effects of the pandemic beyond its direct health implications by addressing the structural vulnerability of refugees and the importance of providing an enabling environment for socio-economic self-reliance.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

64. Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshape Saudi identity and introduce greater lifestyle options while maintaining consolidated rule in the hands of the Al Saud. The envisaged transformation is fully in line with the vested interests of the Saudi monarchy and much of the business elite, as well as some of the country’s younger generations. Vision 2030 builds on earlier change efforts that were only partially successful, but pursues a much broader social agenda in addition to the traditional core economics tenets of prior reform efforts. Another key difference is that its main architect – Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince – has amassed all the essential inputs for transformative change: centralized executive authority, a decent strategy, heaps of money and supportive social constituencies. In the short term, there are no barriers to the realization of Vision 2030 beyond the rapid adjustment that inevitably needs to occur when plans meet reality in a complex environment. However, Vision 2030’s lack of participatory governance modalities, insufficient attention to climate change mitigation and absence of a balanced strategy to promote regional stability represent serious medium-term challenges. Success is likely to require recalibrating these issues in ‘Vision 2040’, or sooner.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Economy, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

65. Solving the Double Climate Migration Paradox

Author:
Kira Vinke and Mechthild Becker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Human interference with the environment is fundamentally – and rapidly – reshaping geographies. Therefore, the question of where people will be able to live in safety and prosperity needs reconciling with these diametrically opposed trends: the continued use of fossil fuels, migration deterrence, and labor shortages. PDF Cover of PDF version of DGAP Commentary No. 4 application/pdf206.84 KB Share Discourses on migration and asylum-related issues have become increasingly contested in Western democracies. Anti-migrant rhetoric continues to gain momentum, particularly ahead of elections. This trend could be observed around the 2024 European elections when voters throughout the EU made migration a top priority in their decision-making. Similarly, in the United States, immigration on the southern border has become a deeply contested issue in the upcoming presidential election. “The migrant” has arguably become the scapegoat for economic and social problems in contemporary politics. The UK’s norm-defeating and dysfunctional asylum deal with Rwanda, now terminated, is just one example of how politics feeds such discriminatory narratives. While migration issues have received extensive media coverage and become increasingly politicized, a growing driver of migration has slipped down the list of political priorities: climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Migration Policy, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. The Impact and Limits of Sanctions on Russia’s Telecoms Industry

Author:
Maria Kolomychenko
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The West responded to Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine with unprecedented sanctions targeting its entire tech industry. While the sanctions on the telecoms sector have not had the intended destructive effect on Russia’s war machine, they have created significant negative side effects for its populace. Russian propaganda is using them to reinforce its narrative that “the West is fighting Russian citizens, and Vladimir Putin is protecting them.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sanctions, Economy, Telecommunications, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia

67. Indian Ocean Security Means More Will Be Asked of US Allies

Author:
Benjamin Reilly and Peter Dean
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Aden and the vulnerability of other key Indian Ocean bottlenecks in the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca... [H]ighlight an inconvenient truth: the country with the most to lose from a disruption of the Indian Ocean today is China...
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, Australia, West Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean

68. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability

Author:
Yih-Jye Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

69. The Impact of the 21st Century Commodity Supercycle on Natural-Resource Dependent Economies: The Case of Bolivia and Peru

Author:
Daniel Agramont-Lechín
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Postgraduate Program on Sustainable Development and Social Inequalities in the Andean Region (trAndeS)
Abstract:
In the early 21st century, Bolivia and Peru experienced remarkable economic growth, coupled with notable reductions in poverty and inequality. However, the subsequent economic slowdown triggered by declining international commodity prices raised concerns about the sustainability of their progress. Historically, both nations have been vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices, often resulting in social unrest and political instability. This study examines whether the significant influx of resources to Bolivia and Peru from 2003 to 2013, attributed to the commodity boom, fostered structural transformation or, on the contrary, reinforced their dependence on the global economy. Analyzing macroeconomic and productivity data, the research indicates a strong correlation between their economic performance and the commodity supercycle trend. A primary finding suggests that rather than fostering a more self-reliant economic integration, the 21st-century economic boom exacerbated the reliance of both nations on natural resource extraction. However, a more nuanced examination reveals divergent medium-term impacts driven by each nation’s development model. Peru, through diversification of international revenue streams and prudent macroeconomic policies, managed to mitigate the effects of declining commodity prices. In contrast, Bolivia’s economy bore the brunt of diminishing income, not only due to the end of the commodity boom but also due to insufficient investments in productive sectors.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Economy, Neoliberalism, Commodities, Extractivism, Economic Dependence, and Post-Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
South America, Peru, and Bolivia

70. The Evolution and Ethics of Accountability Sanctions

Author:
Mark Ferullo
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
When Yahya Jammeh seized power in The Gambia in 1994 in a bloodless coup d’état, the young army colonel’s promise to eliminate corruption seemed disin- genuous. At the time, few Gambians could have anticipated how corrupt and cruel his rule would be. His Excellency Sheikh Professor Al-haji Dr. Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh Babili Mansa, as he titled himself, brutalized his country for over two decades. In 2022, The Gambia’s Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Com- mission exposed the extent of his violence, revealing that he commanded a hit squad that crushed dissent through murder, torture, and rape. His claim that he could cure AIDS with herbs might have been dismissed as the delusions of an out-of-touch autocrat were it not for the loss of life this lie caused during the medical trials.1 When the United States placed economic sanctions on Jammeh in 2017, most Gambians had little sympathy for their former leader, and few denied he deserved punishment.2 By then, Jammeh had fled the country, but the United States sanctioned him anyway. Jammeh joined 12 other individuals—including an organ-trafficking surgeon from Pakistan, a Guatemalan Congressman who ordered the killing of a journalist, and a Ukrainian police commander who oversaw the shooting of peaceful protestors in Kyiv during the Revolution of Dignity three years prior—as the first designations under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. “There is a steep price to pay for their mis- deeds,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin at the time.3
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America